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Eurozone crisis live: Spain told to cut harder as Greek deal approved
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Some early action in the credit ratings world – Moody’s has slashed Cyprus’s credit rating into Junk status, and blamed the Greek debt deal.
Moody’s cuts Cyprus’s sovereign rating by one notch to ‘Ba1′ from ‘Baa3′, with a negative outlook. That means the island’s debt is no longer seen as investment grade.
Moody’s warned that the Cyprus government will have to inject fresh capital into its banks to cover losses incurred through Greece’s debt swap. There is, it said, a “very material risk” that the private sector will fail to provide all the new funds itself.
It’s another sign of the knock-on effects of the Greek deal. Cyprus’s banks were highly exposed to Greek debt, relative to other banks, so are disproportionately hit by the haircut taken by creditors. Cyprus itself is also frozen out of the financial markets at present, and is relying on a loan from Russia.
Depending how you look at it, the Eurogroup’s decision on Spain last night can be seen either as a concession or an imposition.
Here’s the bare facts. The EU now wants Spain to cut its deficit in 2012 to 5.3% of GDP this year. That’s less taxing than the previous target of 4.4%, but harder than 5.8% of GDP that the Madrid government set as its new target last month.
Jean-Claude Juncker, chair of the eurogroup, argued it was vital that Spain gets its deficit in 2013 down to 3% of GDP by making tough decisions this year. He said:
It will be the responsibility of the Spanish authorities to choose the initiatives that will have to be taken in order to bring down the budgetary deficit in 2012, what is most important is what is the target for 2013.
What is less important, but nevertheless important, are the avenues chosen in 2012.
Spain’s deficit is a key issue because the country came nowhere close to hitting its targets in 2011. Last year’s deficit came in at 8.5%, far above the 6.0% goal. That was mainly because its regional governments failed to achieve their own targets.
Juncker appeared to rule out penalising Spain for last year’s performance, indicating that was consigned to history. As he put it:
The figure announced previously by the Spanish government… is dead.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.
Overnight, European finance ministers finallly agreed that Greece’s €130bn (£109bn) rescue package should proceed. Although the official stamp of approval won’t come until tomorrow, this means that the Eurogroup have – at last – accepted that Greece has done everything demanded of it.
The talks in Brussels also saw Spain move centre-stage. European leaders insisted on tougher cutbacks than prime minister Mariano Rajoy recently announced, but also abandoned their old deficit targets.
Is the focus of the crisis moving away from Athens, and over to Madrid?
As usual, we’ll be tracking all the latest developments and reactions. Let us know what you think too…
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Syria, Egypt and Middle East unrest – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsEgypt: The ruling military council is committed to handing over power to a civilian administration by 1 July as it promised, the Associated Press reports, citing a senior member of the council.
The announcement came a day after deadly clashes between protesters and assailants left at least 11 dead in Cairo, prompting some politicians to voice fears that the military might use the violence as a pretext to ignore its own deadline to relinquish control of the country.
Maj Gen Mohammed al-Asar also told reporters that the military will ensure the integrity and fairness of presidential elections scheduled for May 23-24.
The military took over after a popular uprising ousted Egypt’s authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. But in over a year in power, it has been accused of badly bungling the transition, killing protesters, hauling more than 10,000 civilians to trial before military tribunals and of scheming to enshrine a political role for itself after handing over power.
“We say it frankly and clearly, the armed forces and their supreme council are committed to the handover of power on June 30,” al-Asar said. “We don’t desire power. The Supreme Council (of the Armed Forces) is not a substitute for legitimacy in Egypt.”
Here’s a summary of the main developments so far today.
Syria
• At least four students have been killed after security services stormed dorms at Aleppo University, activists and opposition groups said. Dozens more were injured and scores arrested, according to the reports. There have numerous clashes at the university and the assault followed the biggest demonstration there since the beginning of the uprising, according to an opposition website.
• The son of the leader of a Syrian opposition party has been killed, the state news agency reported, blaming an armed terrorist group. Ismail Haider, son of Syrian Social Nationalist party (SSNP) leader Ali Haidar was with another party member, who was also killed, when machine guns opened fire on their car on the road between Homs and Masyaf. A SSNP member told al-Akhbar that the party, which calls for democratic change and rejects the militarisation of the uprising, has enemies on both sides.
• The Syrian government imported $167m-worth of air defence systems and missiles and a further $1m of small arms and ammunition in the months before it began the crackdown on opposition activists, a report by the charity Oxfam says.
Egypt
• The military rulers have expressed sorrow for the bloodshed in Abbasiya but said protesters should have demonstrated in Tahrir Square instead. At a press conference on the violence, they also insisted they were committed to handing over power by 30 June.
Tunisia
• The head of Nessma TV, Nabil Karoui, has been fined 2,400 dinars (about $1,500) for broadcasting the award-winning film, Persepolis, after being convicted of a public order offence. Hedi Boughnim, who dubbed the film into Tunisian dialect, was also fined 1,200 dinars (about $750).
Syria: More arrests are being carried out at the campus of Aleppo University – where activists say at least four students were killed earlier today and scores arrested by government forces – according to the Local Coordination Committees opposition group.
Syria: The assault by the security forces at Aleppo University last night followed the largest anti-regime demonstration at the university to date, the opposition website al-Ayyam says.
This video purports to show the demonstration yesterday.
Al-Ayyam says:
The protest drew many students and was the largest protest at Aleppo University to date. Security forces arrived quickly on the scene and assaulted the protesting students forcing them to disperse and fold back.
The main assault [was] overnight. The students started another protest in the university’s housing complex. They launched the protest from their rooms. Witnesses report that three buses carrying security forces and Shabbiha [pro-regime thugs] surrounded and laid siege to the housing complex. The attack started shortly after midnight Thursday and lasted about an hour.
Security forces stormed the complex with five military vehicles while firing from mounted machine guns. The initial assault caused widespread damage and killed two students. Security forces and Shabbiha followed on foot. They searched room by room, breaking in, and firing bursts of gunfire to intimidate the students. More than 50 students were seen being taken away.
Libya: The National Transitional Council yesterday passed a number of laws criminalising the “glorification” of the late Muammar Gaddafi, his regime and his sons, the Tripoli Post reports:
This law and other two laws that aim to protect the nation and the new democratic Libya have been under debate for some time and have been demanded by a large part of the population.
The remnants of pro-Gaddafi elements have exploited the atmosphere of forgiveness and the spirit of reconciliation expressed by the leaders of the uprising and has been working undercover to undermine the state for some time now.
The Tripoli Post quotes a statement read out to reporters by a judicial official:
Praising or glorifying Muammar Gaddfi, his regime, his ideas or his sons … is punishable by a prison sentence …
If those news reports, rumours or propaganda cause any damage to the state the penalty will be life in prison …
In conditions of war, there is a prison sentence for any person who spreads information and rumors which disrupt military preparations for the defense of the country, spread terror or weaken the citizens’ morale.
(Libya is still considered to be in a state of war, apparently.)
A second law stipulates prison sentences for anyone who “attacks the February 17 revolution, denigrates Islam, the authority of the state or its institutions,” the Tripoli Post says, stating that these are laws “governing the transition” – which perhaps means that they are intended to be temporary.
A third new law promulgated yesterday confiscates all property and funds belonging to figures of the previous regime, including Gaddafi’s relatives.
Yemen: Democracy is America’s second choice in Yemen, counter-radicalisation expert Francisco Martin-Rayo argues in an article for Foreign Policy that is highly critical of the Obama administration and its apparent obsession with al-Qaida:
Though Yemen’s internal politics have changed dramatically since January 2011, US strategy there has remained single-mindedly focused on eradicating AQAP [al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula]. Democracy promotion, and the hopes of millions of Yemenis who supported the revolution, do not appear to be among the Obama administration’s concerns in the country.
Nowhere was this more clear than in a recent press conference in Sana’a, where Jeffrey Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, reinforced US support for the existing transition plan, which doesn’t call for elections until February 2014 and which has widely left President Saleh’s patronage network intact. (His son, Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, still controls the Republican Guard and Special Forces – a fact that inspires considerable disquiet among members of the pro-democracy opposition.)
Since the beginning of the demonstrations against President Saleh’s regime, the US has signally failed to support the pro-democracy youth movement, a group that consists largely of the young and dissatisfied men that AQAP recruits so assiduously …
In April 2011, the youth movement openly petitioned the US for support, only to be ignored. The US instead supported the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) negotiations with the old regime, squashing any hopes of an authentic democratic revolution and antagonising Washington’s most likely local allies.
Tunisia: It appears that Nabil Karoui, the head of Nessma TV, has been convicted of a public order or “morality” offence rather than blasphemy in the Persepolis trial. This may explain why he has been fined rather than jailed.
According to Le Nouvel Observateur (in French), the court judgment said he was punished for “broadcasting to the public a film that disturbed public order and was contrary to good morals”.
Tunisia Live says Hedi Boughnim, who dubbed the award-winning film into Tunisian dialect, was also fined 1,200 dinars (about $750).
Syria: The son of the leader of the opposition Syrian Social Nationalist party (SSNP) was assassinated on Wednesday by an armed terrorist group, the state news agency reports.
Ismail Haidar, son of Ali Haidar, was killed alongside another SSNP member, Fadi Atawneh, by machine gun fire on the road between Homs and Masyaf, says Sana.
The SSNP, founded by Lebanese academic Antun Saadeh in the 1930s, is “an opposition party calling for democratic change in Syria, but adamantly rejected foreign intervention and the militarisation of the uprising,” says al-Akhbar.
It quotes an anonymous high-ranking member of the SSNP based in the US as saying:
The SSNP has taken a position that is neither to the complete liking of the regime nor to the complete liking of many elements in the opposition, but which it feels represents the interest of Syria, which should be above all other interests.
Unfortunately, certain elements on the ground believe that unless you are 100% with them, then you are 100% against them, and as a result two young members of the SSNP have paid with their lives for the party’s position.
Mohammad Zahweh, from the SSNP, told Al-Akhbar.
It happened yesterday evening. There were gunmen waiting [on the street] and they began firing on the car … We have received threats, particularly against the president [of] the party, but we couldn’t specify the source of those threats. I can’t really say for sure [who was responsible]. The investigation is underway [and] we don’t want to guess who was behind it, it could’ve been a criminal act.
Sana quotes SSNP leader Ali Haidar as saying:
I don’t need condolences over the deaths of my son and his comrade, because their blood is no more precious than the blood of any Syrian that was martyred before or will be martyred in the coming days … Those who carry guns will not terrorise us and will not silence us nor stop is from working day and night to establish peace and security in Syria …Ismael and his comrade are the victims of terrorism that is afflicting Syria… they, like the rest of the martyrs, fell so that Syria may live, for Syria’s interest is above all interests.
Tunisia: Reports are coming in that the head of Nessma TV has been fined 2,400 dinars (about $1,500) for broadcasting the film, Persepolis, which religious elements complained was blasphemous. More details shortly.
Bahrain: The kingdom’s human rights record will come under scrutiny at the UN Human Rights Council later this month, as part of the “periodic review” system.
As part of that process, the kingdom has submitted a report detaiing its achievements since the last review in 2008. As usual with these reports, it gives a fairly glowing picture. It also refers to the king as “beloved” three times (pages 8, 20 and 25) and “dearly beloved” once (page 7).
A second report, by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, is less congratulatory. It complains about “a deterioration in the human rights situation” and notes “with concern” allegations of torture, including the torture of children.
Syria: In another video from Aleppo University, where activists say at least four students were killed (see 9.40am), the sound of intense gunfire can be heard. It is difficult to make out the different figures running outside as the video is filmed from a room high off the ground. A voiceover at the end says “Assad mukhabarat [secret police].”
Another video purports to show students outside the dormitories amid their belongings, strewn on the ground.
Tunisia: Two police officers who killed a protester last year have been jailed for 20 years each – the first punishment meted out to security officials over their crackdown on the revolution that ousted President Ben Ali, Reuters reports.
The officers were also fined 80,000 dinars ($60,000) each for their role in the death of Salim al-Hadhary, a source said. The money will go to the victim’s family.
Syria: Syrian security forces stormed student dorms at Aleppo University in the north-west of the country following anti-government protests there, killing at least four students and wounding several others with teargas and live ammunition, activists and opposition groups said today. From AP .
Around 1,500 students had been protesting in student quarters adjacent to Aleppo University’s main campus late Wednesday when security forces and pro-regime gunmen swept into their residences, firing tear gas at first, then live ammunition to disperse them.
Student activist Thaer al-Ahmed said panic and chaos ensued as students tried to flee. “Some students ran to their rooms to take cover but they were followed to their rooms, beaten up and arrested,” he said.
He said raids and intermittent gunfire continued until early Thursday morning. Dozens of people were wounded, some critically, and around 50 students were arrested, he said.The Local Coordination Committees activist group confirmed the raid and said five students were killed and some 200 arrested while the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said four students were killed. “Regime forces demanded through loudspeakers that the dorms be evacuated, then began detaining the students,” the LCC said in a statement.
The LCC says demonstrations are taking place now, both elsewhere on the campus and outside the campus, in solidarity with the students who were attacked.
A video posted online purports to show a student who was shot.
This video shows purports to show a fire still blazing at the university dorms after the attacks. http://youtu.be/uulRMOFytWc
A picture of one of those said to have been killed, named as Majed Abdulhaid, has been posted on Twitter. (warning:graphic)
Syria: Will it end in stalemate or checkmate? The New York Times is intrigued to discover that the president of the World Chess Federation was in Damascus at the weekend and had three hours of talks with President Assad .
It says Kirsan Ilyumzhinov – described as “an eccentric Russian millionaire” – was officially visiting Syria to promote the teaching of chess in schools, though the paper notes that he also went to Libya last year in an effort to negotiate a settlement between the Libyan rebels and Colonel Gaddafi:
Although he holds no formal diplomatic position with the Russian government, his repeated visits to Arab countries in turmoil have reinforced the impression that he is serving as an informal envoy, using the chess organization’s business as a fittingly Russian ruse.
Bahrain: To mark World Press Freedom Day, King Hamad has announced “a new era” for Bahrain’s media, the pro-government Gulf Daily News reports. The king is quoted as saying:
There should be no tampering with the right of Bahraini citizens in expressing their opinions, nor any ceilings put on their freedoms or creativity apart from professional consciousness, national and ethical responsibilities and observance of the people’s unity and national interest in compliance with the constitution and the law.
Media freedoms are ushering in a more advanced phase of diversity, independence and respect of opinion and counter-opinion.
The king added that legislation to “boost freedom of opinion and expression in compliance with highest international standards” was on in preparation.
Good morning. Welcome to Middle East Live. During the day we shall be monitoring unrest in Syria, Egypt, Bahrain and other parts of the region, and keeping an eye on the growing problems faced by the Un monitoring operation in Syria.
Syria
• The UN monitoring mission is in trouble – and not just on the ground in Syria, where the monitors are constantly tailed by the authorities. “The UN is making repeated calls to member states seeking personnel as it tries to deploy the full force by the end of May,” Bloomberg reports.
It adds that the deployment is hindered by the acknowledgment of US and other security council diplomats that the mission is likely to fail and that its purpose is to convince Russia and China that stronger measures, which they previously blocked, are needed to force President Bashar al-Assad to stop killing his opponents and civilians.
• In a statement last night, the Avaaz organisation said the Annan plan is “in the gutter”.
Referring to developments in Homs, it said “While the pace of bombardment slowed significantly ever since the UN observers arrived in the city, the Annan plan is not being upheld. Armed opposition groups remain inside the city while the regime’s forces retain a formidable presence.”
• The Syrian government imported $167m-worth of air defence systems and missiles and a further $1m of small arms and ammunition in the months before it began the crackdown on opposition activists, a report by the charity Oxfam says.
Egypt
• The ruling military council (Scaf) says it was not reponsible for the deaths of 11 or more protesters during recent clashes in Cairo and will hold a press conference later today, the Egypt Independent reports.
A statement on Scaf’s Facebook page says: “The armed forces have over the last week endured what it cannot tolerate of insults and attacks from demonstrators in front of the defence ministry.”
Libya
• Shokri Ghanem, Libya’s former oil chief who was found drowned in the river Danube on Sunday, was wanted for questioning in Libya,
Reuters reports. The Libyan authorities had sent a warrant to Interpol about a month ago but were still awaiting a “decisive reply”.
• The National Transitional Council has lifted controversial restrictions on the types of political parties that can take part in next month’s election, the BBC reports.
In April the NTC had announced a ban on parties organised along religious, regional, tribal or ethnic lines, saying that this was a measure to preserve “national unity”. But yesterday it issued a new version of the law which made no mention of the restrictions.
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US military criticised for secrecy over death of Afghan BBC correspondent
Posted by: | CommentsUS military secrecy over the death of a BBC correspondent shot dead by US forces during a Taliban attack caused needless distress to his family and sparked fears of a cover-up, a report into the shooting has said.
Ahmed Omed Khpulwak, 25, an Afghan national who worked as a BBC stringer in southern Uruzgan province, died when the local radio and television offices where he worked were attacked last July.
Khpulwak was shot dead by US soldiers who mistook him for an insurgent when they spotted him hiding in the bathroom of the building, which had been half-destroyed by suicide bombers.
Both the Afghan government and the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) initially said Khpulwak had been killed by the Taliban, despite the questions of family members who retrieved his body.
“Those who saw Omed’s body and the place of his death and heard police saying that foreign forces had stormed RTA [Radio Television Afghanistan] understood there was something wrong with the official account,” the report from the Afghanistan Analysts Network said.
But when his family spoke out about suspicions that he had been killed by a foreign soldier instead – based on the state of his body and the bullet casings around it – they received death threats in anonymous phone calls, probably from people linked to a local strongman, according to the report.
“Isaf’s failure to talk frankly with the media and Afghan population caused needless distress to Omed’s family and friends and helped spark suspicions of a cover-up,” said the report’s author, Kate Clark.
The truth about Khpulwak’s death emerged weeks later, when the results of a US investigation were published. A redacted version of the full conclusions was released only after a freedom of information request.
Clark’s report questions whether US troops did enough to meet their legal obligation to check there were no civilians in the offices, although it acknowledges that the soldier who shot him dead did so “with a reasonable belief that Omed was a possible suicide bomber”.
US troops were told by a local security battalion that there were no civilians in the building, but did not seem to have made further checks, the report said. At least one fellow journalist who reached Khpulwak by phone and tried to get to the offices was turned back by Afghan and Nato forces.
The top Nato and US commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen, endorsed investigators’ recommendations, including those “that address the need to establish whether civilians are present at the scene of any potential engagement”, a conclusion Clark said showed the importance of transparency when operations do go wrong.
“The release of the military investigation has shown how an honest explanation of events can be a positive contribution both to accountability for civilian deaths and to improving the protection of civilians,” the report said.
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French presidential election: reaction to first round – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsNot sure about the different policies of the two main French presidential candidates? My colleague Angelique Chrisafis has written this useful primer.
The BBC’s Business Editor Robert Peston has written a blog asking if Hollande is indeed the enemy of finance – or in fact its prisoner.
Is Hollande the enemy or the prisoner of finance? He looks pretty shackled bbc.in/K13mHt
— Robert Peston (@Peston) April 23, 2012
Peston writes:
The point is that the French government and French economy is disproportionately dependent on the goodwill of overseas investors and banks.
Here are the statistics.
According to IMF figures, 59% of France’s government debt is held overseas – which means that well over half of all lending to the French state is not motivated by sentimentality or patriotism in any way.
To put that figure into context, just 24.8% of UK general government debt is provided by foreigners.
Perhaps more relevantly, the French government has to borrow a colossal sum equivalent to 18.2% of GDP this year and 19.5% next year to finance debt that is maturing and the current deficit.
So, to extrapolate from the current ownership pattern of its debt, France needs to retain the goodwill of overseas investors to provide loans equivalent to something like 10% of its GDP this year and a similar amount in 2013.
He suggests that Hollande is all talk and no trousers (his words, not mine)
So does this mean that there is likely to be some great financial cataclysm for France if Mr Hollande is elected?
Well, the opposite may be true.
The logic goes that he must be aware that the French state dare not alienate the international investment community to any great extent.
Which is why many influential investors see Mr Hollande as an intriguing politician with a lot of mouth but not a huge amount in the trouser department. They note, for example, that when he made a flying visit to the UK a few weeks ago, he went out of his way to play down how dangerous he would be to the City of London and international financial businesses.
My colleague the most lovely Jon Henley, former Paris correspondent for the Guardian and dedicated Francophile, has been in touch with a rather counter-intuitive thought regarding the Front National’s performance last night.
Not wishing in the least to minimise the gravity of Marine Le Pen’s score in last night’s poll, the Front National’s highest ever in a French national election — it cannot be anything but depressing that very nearly a fifth of French voters decided to cast their ballot for the FN. But:
Marine Le Pen polled approximately 1.3% more than her father in 2002, the party’s previous highest score.
Jean-Marie Le Pen was running at a time of relative economic prosperity in France, when the protest vote is traditionally low; against a reasonably popular right-wing incumbent, Jacques Chirac, from whom he could not realistically have expected to steal a ton of votes; and he was a one-eyed former paratrooper and political pariah who delighted in outraging the electorate with remarks such as the Nazi gas chambers being “a detail of history”.
His daughter ran at a time of severe economic depression, when the protest vote is traditionally sky-high; against a historically unpopular right-wing incumbent from whom she could legitimately expect to steal a ton of votes; and she is a far less repugnant figure who has spent the past year and more working extremely hard to distance herself from her father’s image and detoxify her party.
Looked at that way, shouldn’t she have scored even higher?
Reader AlarmedAhmed below the line has come up with an EXCELLENT translation of that most pleasing Libération headline.
And pleasing word play from Liberation.”Hollande en tete,Le Pen trouble-fete”-Hollande ahead,Le Pen the spoilsport twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
AlarmedAhmed suggests:
I just thought of a punchy translation of the Libération newspaper headline.
(“Hollande en tête – Le Pen trouble-fête”)“Hollande’s the one – but Le Pen spoils the fun”
It really is very good, isn’t it.
In an attempt to get back on the front foot Nicolas Sarkozy has announced today that he will organise a “très grand” meeting around “real work” on May 1.
Instantané de campagne: “le 1er mai, nous allons organiser la fête du travail, de ceux qui travaillent dur.” instagr.am/p/JwdkTUt7n7/
— Nicolas Sarkozy (@NicolasSarkozy) April 23, 2012
In front of the press at his HQ, Sarkozy said:
“On May 1, we are going to organise a celebration of work, but of real work and those who work hard, who are exposed, who suffer and who don’t those who don’t work to earn more than those who do.”
Some interesting thoughts from moossyn a reader who was in France last night for the count.
They have some thoughts on the impact The Front National could now have:
What really does worry me though is [...] the FN are going to be in very strong positions in a lot of seats at the next parliamentary elections. This gives the FN a lot of power. Two of the ideas that were floated last night (by people who know more about this sort of thing) were that a) The UMP will have to do some sort of deal with MLP in return for a ‘vote UMP says le pen’ or b) The UMP will fracture as deals are done at a local level as everybody tries to salvage something for themselves.
I noted last night that following the historic result for the Front National last night, Marine Le Pen was throwing some shapes on the dance floor (see 10.29pm, on yesterday’s blog).
I was chastised by a French friend for saying she was dancing to “Terrible French disco” – Les Rita Mitsouko is a much-loved staple at any French wedding – but Le Parisien has some footage of her getting down to All Night Long by Lionel Richie. Enjoy!
Nicolas Sarkozy in a combative mood (quelle surprise!) this morning as he confronts journalists. “It was only a few months ago that you were saying I wouldn’t even make it to the second round – do you remember that?,” he challenges.
Reacting to the fact that François Hollande has rejected his call for three debates before the next round, instead of the traditional single debate, Sarkozy said:
“I state again my incomprehension that François Hollande does not want the debates.”
The editorial on the front page of the Figaro (£, en Français) is less enthusiastic – unsurprisingly – about Hollande’s victory. “It’s an advantage certainly, but not decisive bearing in mind the disappointing performance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon,” it states.
Editorial in Le Figaro (en Francais) twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
The paper notes that in refusing to give her backing to Sarkozy, Le Pen would carry “the heavy responsibility” of allowing the election of a left-wing candidate. “The vast majority of the FN voters, if they want to avoid the worst political outcome, will have no choice but to vote Sarkozy to stop Hollande.”
Étienne Mougeotte of Le Figaro writes (again, apologies for loose translation):
The paradox of this new political deal, is that the Left still does not have, not by a long way, a majority in the country. Yet that might suffice to propel François Hollande to the Elysee on May 6.
Let’s take a look at how the French media has reacted to last night’s election results.
First up: left-wing http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/2012/04/22/echo_813636.
Echo bit.ly/JpykxL
— Libération (@liberation_info) April 23, 2012
Nicolas Demorand writes (and my apologies in advance for the quick translation):
Firstly, the clear victory of François Hollande. It was not guaranteed, far from it. His first place finish tells us a lot. It shows us a profound desire for a change in politics, the manner of leading the country, a willingness to see other values given prominence.
He continues to reflect on the strong showing of the FN:
Never has the far right been so strong in France. This first round is not as tragic as ten years ago, but just as worrying. If not more.
[...]
Confronted with this new political landscape the choice is clear from now on: Come up with answers to this distress throughout the entire country, without abandoning the values of the Republic. Find the way out of the economic, social and moral crises honestly by showing what could be the future of the country, instead of boosting the myth of a France that will only survive if it closes itself around its history, by strengthening its borders. After May 6 and for the coming years, from this point on this is the choice that voters face.
With Marine Le Pen in a strong position as potential Kingmaker this morning, how she will affect the second round is being hotly debated.
Le Pen’s campaign’s manager Florian Philippot has said this morning that the Front National will not enter into negotiations with Sarkozy’s UMP, reports Le Figaro.
Many thanks to Cordite below the line who translates the key point of the article for us:
The campaign manager of Marine Le Pen (FN), Florian Philippot , ruled out this morning to “discuss” with the UMP by the second round, saying his movement was “not in compromise and small scams politicians “.
“No, we did not go talk to the UMP. We’re not the modem, it is not the Greens, it is not that the Left Front agrees miserably in Holland (…) We’re not in the compromise and little tricks politicians, “he said on Canal +.
Asked whether voting instructions for the second round, he felt that they could “not choose between two candidates interchangeable”, itself about to “maybe white vote, vote again or Marine Le Pen” .
“People are free, they do what they want, but is it possible to choose between Sarkozy and Holland when you see what condition they left the country?” Insisted Florian Philippot.
The score of 18% made Sunday night by the President of the far right is in his eyes “a vote of hope”. “The test last night must be processed in the future, we can have a lot of members (…) that can change things,” he said.
Le Figaro is reporting that the French stock exchange has reacted to last night’s results with a clear drop this morning.
Présidentielle : la Bourse de Paris ouvre en nette baisse bit.ly/IpAWbT
— Le Figaro (@Le_Figaro) April 23, 2012
Le Pen – whose father last night said he was “very proud” – made little effort to hide her delight at winning 18% of the vote, as this photo demonstrates.
Le Monde has some good graphics showing how the French voted in different regions of the country.
The results for Marine Le Pen reveal the Front National candidate won in Gard, but also get her best scores in the North-east of the country, where she was often in second place. The FN also made break-throughs in new regions, such as Brittany.
It appears that the French authorities warnings to French and foreign media not to publish early results before all polling stations had closed were not idle threats.
The French electoral commission has announced this morning is investigating AFP, Twitter and several foreign news sites (namely in Belgium and Switzerland) for having broken the law embargoing polls or results before 8pm. An investigation has been launched and punishment threatened – previously it warned that offenders would face fines of up to 75,000 euros ($100,000).
The #radiolondres was imaginative in its efforts to get round the rules – some of the top tweets can be found here (en Français).
The hashtag #radiolondres was used in homage to Charles de Gaulle, the first president of modern France, who lead the French resistance broadcasting messages from London during World War II.
The New York Times is also carrying a piece about how the French used Twitter to get around the rules.
With references to the temperature in Budapest in Hungary representing Sarkozy (his father’s birthplace), and red tomatoes standing in for Leftist firebrand Mélenchon, the most unkind signifier was left for Hollande, nicknamed “flamby” after the wobbly French custard dessert.
“Le flamby cuit à 27°” – The flan is cooked at 27° – wrote one wag.
The Guardian’s Paris correspondent Angelique Chrisafis has sent this analysis on the mood in France this morning following last night’s first round election results.
François Hollande has the clear advantage this morning. His score is symbolic – is the highest showing by the left since François Mitterrand was re-elected in 1988. He is around one and a half points clear of Nicolas Sarkozy. This is the first time a serving president has been knocked into second position in the past 50 years. Already polls show Hollande roundly beating Sarkozy in the second round.
However, the surge by the extreme-right Marine Le Pen – the highest ever score by the Front National – complicates matters. The race will now be tight and awkward. The mood among the French political class was pretty tense this morning. Le Pen is at 18%, with 6.5m voters. She came top in the southern department of the Gard, which has high unemployment. She came second in around 10 departments in the east of France which also face unemployment and industry moving away.
The key question now is how many of Le Pen’s voters will transfer to vote for Sarkozy in the final May 6 run-off. This is not clear, but a substantial number could abstain. All depends on how strong the mood of anti-Sarkozyism is. Much of Le Pen’s vote is a protest
vote against Sarkozy and the system. It will be hard for Sarkozy to now secure a large portion of Le Pen’s voters while also reaching out to the smaller pool of voters of the centrist Francois Bayrou, of whom only one third are expected to transfer to the president.
Shock about the unexpected strong showing from the far-right Front National candidate Marine Le Pen dominates the front pages of today’s papers in France.
Centre-right paper Le Figaro leads with the headline “Marine Le Pen’s break-through relaunches the second round”.
Reaction to last night’s #presidentielle. Le Figaro:Marine Le Pen has relaunched the second round #france2012 twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
Le Parisien carries a picture of the two candidates France expected to go through to the second round, and a picture of the surprise success of the evening.
#france2012 Le Parisien splashes with the headline: “An expected duel…and a surprise” with a picture of Marine Le Pen twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
But clearly the most pleasing headline of the day comes from Libération, with some clever word-play. “Hollande ahead, but Le Pen proves a spoilsport”. It works better in French as you can see below.
And pleasing word play from Liberation.”Hollande en tete,Le Pen trouble-fete”-Hollande ahead,Le Pen the spoilsport twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
Final figures from last night reveal that the race between Sarkozy and Hollande may be slightly closer than expected. Hollande took 28.63% of the vote, Sarkozy 27.08% while Marine Le Pen – who at one stage looked like winning 20% of the vote – took 18% of the vote.
Bonjour! France wakes this morning with the knowledge that Socialist candidate François Hollande has won the first round of the French presidential election, and is now well placed to beat Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round on 6 May to become the next president of the Republic. But it also wakes knowing that almost one in five voters voted for the far right candidate Marine Le Pen, who could now play a significant role in the second round. Follow the liveblog this morning for reaction and analysis to last night’s results in France.
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Anders Behring Breivik trial, day three – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsAP has details of the exchange between the prosecutor and Breivik over whether the Knights Templar meeting actually took place.
Breivik refused to give details on what he claims was the founding session of the “Knights Templar” in London in 2002.
He conceded, however, that he embellished somewhat in the manifesto when he described the other three members at the founding session as “brilliant political and military tacticians of Europe.” Breivik testified that he had used “pompous” language and described them instead as “four people with great integrity.”
Bejer Engh challenged him on whether the meeting had taken place at all.
“Yes, there was a meeting in London,” Breivik insisted.
“It’s not something you have made up?” Engh countered.
“I haven’t made up anything. What is in the compendium is correct,” he said.
Later, he answered with more nuance.
“There is nothing that is made up, but you have to see what is written in a context. It is a glorification of certain ideals,” Breivik said.
The court has now adjourned for lunch.
Breivik says that “legitimacy is achieved through action”, making the distinction between “keyboard generals” and those who put their ideas into practice.
Breivik says he could be considered a “role model” for other “militant nationalists” after last year’s attacks on 22/7
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Says “keyboard warriors” can’t be role models “because it’s difficult to promote martyrdom when you fear death yourself”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “There are lots of keyboard warriors out there, also called sofa generals, but more often than not they have serious problems…
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “… winning ground with their views because they were only keyboard warriors.” Credibility achieved thru “an action, an operation”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik says he and the Knights Templar were influenced by Serb nationalists rather than Nazis.
Breivik says, at their inaugral meeting, the Knights Templar, needed to distance itself from the Nazis.
Breivik said the inaugral Knights Templar meeting In London agreed need to “distance oneself sufficiently from national socialism…”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: need to distance new militant nationalism from Nazis “because it was quite blood stenched.” Maybe stained better translation?
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “For the extreme right to ever be able to prevail in Europe in the future one had to distance oneself from the old school ideology”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik describes Richard as a “perfect knight”.
He then reveals his own “codename”.
Breivik says he chose the codename Sigurd after the 12th century Norwegian king – “perhaps the most important leader Norway has ever had”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is asked about the English mentor named “Richard”, who he told police about.
Breivik also said in his 1500-page manifesto he met a “mentor” who used the pseudonym Richard – after Richard the Lionheart – at the founding meeting of the Knights Templar Europe “military order” in London in 2002.
Shortly after the 22 July massacre, a rightwing blogger who is a member of an anti-Muslim group with a similar name to the one Breivik claimed to belong to denied meeting the Norwegian gunman.
Paul Ray, who writes a blog under the name Lionheart, said he belonged to an anti Muslim group called The Ancient Order of the Templar Knights but denied ever meeting Breivik and said he was horrified by the killngs. In a telephone interview with Associated Press, Ray said he was not at the 2002 London meeting that Breivik described in his manifesto.
But Ray did say that it appeared Breivik had drawn inspiration from some of his ideas and writings.
It’s really pointing at us. All these things he’s been talking about are linked to us. It’s like he’s created this whole thing around us.
Once more Breivik uses that word “pompous” to describe his manifesto but insists the content is all factually accurate. He says the manifesto was “selling dreams”.
Breivik says his manifesto was a “sales tool…we are selling dreams. That’s what it is to sell an ideology if you wish you inspire others.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
The prosecutor is referring to what Breivik wrote about his visit to London in his manifesto.
Breivik now says that the Serb was not in London, despite writing in his manifesto that he was.
Breivik refuses to elaborate on claims in his manifesto of the “English protestant host” in London who became his “mentor”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
#Breivik:court now looking at Breivik’s manifesto s.968, which details the ‘founding session’ apparently held in London in April 2002.
— Paul Brennan (@paulrbrennan) April 18, 2012
I met 3 persons in London + the Serb in Liberia. #Breivik
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 18, 2012
Prosecutor points out #Breivik told police the Serb was in London, yet he now insists the Serb was not there. Another contradiction (lie?)
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
Was there a meeting in London. Yes! So you haven’t made it up. No! I haven’t made anything up. #Breivik
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
Breivik is asked a series of questions relating to his visit to London in 2002 which he refuses to answer.
Breivik doesn’t look ruffled. Cheeks slightly flushed, but seems to be enjoying frustrating the prosecution, who ask “why are you smiling?”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
More frustration expressed by Breivik as he tells the prosecution.
Don’t ridicule me.
Questioning has resumed but once more Breivik is challenging the line of questioning.
Grumpy Breivik tells prosecutor: “You have chosen a de-legitimisation strategy to strip me of credibility.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
#Breivik says he doesn’t want to comment any more on Liberia. Tells prosec to refer to police ivws. “i won’t make this easier for you.”
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
Bereaved families and victims not wanting to be interviewed are wearing stickers stating the fact.
Families and victims not wanting to be interviewed are wearing stickers “no interviws please”. #Breivik twitter.com/TrygveSorvaag/…
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 18, 2012
Helen Pidd sends this summary of today’s opening session from Oslo:
Breivik seems in a more belligerent mood today, refusing to answer the prosecution’s questions or taking an age to do so. The way the court deals with his behaviour is especially interesting for a British journalist used to covering trials at the Old Bailey or other crown courts. Back home, barristers tend to showboat, using elaborate language in an attempt to outwit a defendant. Should the accused dare to throw a question back during cross examination, he or she is quickly told to step into line.
But not in Norway. This morning, the prosecutors are trying to tease out from Breivik why he made a trip to Liberia in the spring of 2002. They know he went there because they have seen the genuine stamps in his passport. But they want him to explain why – he has repeatedly says he has no wish to play ball. The reason, he says, is that he does not want to say anything that could lead to anyone else’s arrest.
Yet in 1,100 pages of police interviews, Breivik has already opened up about his Liberian adventure, and the prosecutors want him to elaborate for the benefit of the five judges, who have not read the police transcripts. “I do not wish to comment on Liberia. You’ll have to skip it,” said Breivik at one point. Inga Bejer Engh, the prosecutor leading today, held her cool, saying she couldn’t skip it and would have to read from the police transcript. “Fine,” said
Breivik. “Read it, then.”Breivik also told berated Engh and the police for “not following up leads” relating to 8,000 Facebook contacts to whom he sent his manifesto and the Serb war criminal he claims to have met in Liberia.
The court has now adjourned for 20 minutes.
Breivik says he told his friends he was going to Liberia but not the reason for doing so. Asked why he told them he was going to Liberia instead of making up a more conventional destination, he claimed he does not like lying.
Breivik: “It’s difficult to tell lies. I’m a person that doesn’t like to lie. I’ve only told lies in very extreme cases.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik seems a lot less comfortable with the prosecutor’s questions this morning and has been warned that if he doesn’t answer that may be used against him.
Prosecutor to Breivik: “The fact you choose to remain silent may be used against you.” He won’t answer q’s about Liberia.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
How persausive a threat that is given that he has admitted the killings and it is just his sanity that is to be established is questionable. But he does give some more details about Liberia nonetheless.
Breivik claims his “cover” story for entering Liberia was to meet militants was that “i had a bleeding heart and was working for UNICEF.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik’s second Liberian cover story was that “I was smuggling blood diamonds.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
The prosecutor has confirmed, from the accused’s passport, that Breivik went to Liberia, which leads the defendant to mock the first psychiatrist who concluded that he was insane.
Breivik “Isn’t that quite remarkable that I was actually in Liberia? So it’s not true that this was a psychotic fantasy.” Adamant he is sane
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is making derogatory comments about women, suggesting most don’t have the comprehension or “backbone” to be a “revolutionary activist”.
Breivik says “anyone” could follow his example by reading his compendium. Except women. “Maybe not women – 1 in 10 women perhaps.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “If you look at revolutionary activists in the world, only one in 10 is a woman.” Plus, terrorists need a “backbone”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: to be like me “you must be born with a backbone,. Not everyone is born with a backbone; of course you can develop one.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is unhappy at the line of questioning in court today. He feels like he is being ridiculed and there is an attempt to expose him as a liar.
Your purpose is to cast doubt on the existence of this network. Isn’t that right? #Breivik. Prosecutor says she just wants to shed light.
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
#Breivik: “You are trying to ridicule me”
— Paul Brennan (@paulrbrennan) April 18, 2012
#Breivik “Let us jump over this and go to conclusion. Police do not beleive I met anyone in Serbia”
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 18, 2012
While Breivik refuses to name the Serb nationalist he claims to have met in Liberia, Norwegian police believe he is referring to Milorad Ulemek. However, police are not sure whether the pair actually met, as Breivik claims, and Ulemek’s lawyer claims they have not.
Ulemek’s lawyer told the Norwegian broadcasting corporation, NRK, that his client had never met Breivik (Norwegian link):
When Ulemek first heard about this, he just laughed, said [Aleksander] Zorica of the alleged contact between Anders Breivik Behring and his client.
Asked by NRK whether Ulemek and Breivik have met, Ulemek’s lawyer responded that the two have never met.
Zorica said to NRK that Ulemek had never heard of the organization Knights Templar, to which Breivik refers.
The prosecution refers to claims by the defendant to have met Serb nationalists, contained in Breivik’s manifesto “2083 – A declaration of European independence”. The claim is contained in the section about meetings with militant nationalists with whom he formed the Knights Templar (which the prosecution said in its opening statement “does not exist”.
The accused describes the language in the manifesto as “pompous”, an adjective he used a number of times yesterday without quite explaining what he meant.
He says he attended a training camp after being screened.
#Breivik manifesto says “I remember they did a complete screening and background check to ensure I was of the desired caliber.”
— Matthew Price (@matthewwprice) April 18, 2012
#Breivik manifesto: “According to one of them, they were considering several hundred individuals throughout Europe for a training course.”
— Paul Brennan (@paulrbrennan) April 18, 2012
Breivik claims he attended a Liberian training course in “revolutionary knowledge.. Rhetorical strategies, propaganda, production of bombs”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
This Serb nationalist he claims he met in Liberia was wanted for war crimes, says Breivik.
Breivik claims this Serbian militant nationalist in Liberia was wanted for “war crimes”, for “defending his country…against Muslims.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is talking about police surveillance.
Breivik says he avoided contact with “other Norwegian nationalists” for fear of ending up on a police/secret service surveillance list
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
He claims he travelled to Liberia to meet a Serb nationalist but refuses to name him.
Breivik says he went to Liberia in 2001 to meet a “militant nationalist” from Serbia. Refuses to name him for fear he will be arrested.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik has arrived back in court, once more making a clenched-fist salute.
Before moving onto today, Helen Pidd responds to a question raised by some readers with respect to yesterday’s proceedings:
Some on Twitter this morning have queried an assertion I made in my main story on Tuesday in which I wrote that Breivik never “fully articulated” the threat on which he was so fixated.
I think I could have explained that better. He did articulate the many threats he saw posed by “cultural marxists” who he claimed had destroyed Norway by using it as “a dumping ground for the surplus births of the third world.” He went on and on about what he sees as the dangers posed by Muslims, and how they were trying to take over western Europe.
But what made Tuesday such an arduous day in court was not just the hateful nature of his testimony, but the fact that so much of it was completely contradictory.
Not only does Breivik claim that he had copied al-Qaida’s strategies in order to protect the west from the Islamist threat, but he also insisted that his goal (in the short to medium term) was to make pariahs of Europe’s nationalists – the very people with whom you might expect him to feel kinship.
“I thought I had to provoke a witchhunt of modern moderately conservative nationalists,” he said. Then he claimed that this curious strategy had already borne fruit, citing the example of Norway’s prime minister, Jens Stoltenberg, who he said had given a speech since the attacks saying that critics of immigration were wrong.
The effect of this “witchhunt”, said Breivik, would be to increase “censorship” of moderately nationalist views, which would “increase polarisation”. The effect of this, he said, would eventually lead to “more radicalisation as more will lose hope and lose faith in democracy”. Ultimately, he said, these new radicals would join the war he has started to protect the “indigenous people” of Norway and western Europe.
He said this logic was understood by very few, and that he had received letters from Norwegian and European nationalists saying “what are you doing?! We are getting no support as a result of this.” He added: “I don’t expect anybody to understand this… the only ones who understand this are themselves ultra-nationalists.”
Good morning. Welcome to live coverage of day three of the trial of Anders Behring Breivik.
The defendent made a lengthy opening statement yesterday in which he said he “would have done it again”.
The prosecution then began questioning him, which will continue today. Once again, the TV cameras are not allowed to film but Helen Pidd is in court for the Guardian and will be filing updates.
Here is a link to yesterday’s blog.
And here is a link to the news story from today’s Guardian.
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Syria crisis and Bahrain unrest – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsEgypt: The Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission decision to uphold the disqualification of both Khariat al-Shater of the Muslim Brotherhood and Omar Suleiman, Mubarak’s former intelligence chief, may come as a relief to both men, as some are suggesting – neither man was ever a serious contender.
Shater (pictured) has been working on the assumption that he will become prime minister this summer, not president, diplomatic sources say.
He also expects the prime minister to have a more important role than the president, since the Brotherhood’s plan is to increase the power of parliament under the still-to-be-drafted constitution and decrease that of the president, they point out.
According to one story that is circulating, Shater’s entry into the presidential contest was basically a game of bluff in which the candidacies of Shater and Suleiman were meant to cancel each other out – as has now happened. Though we can’t confirm that this is the real story behind the scenes, it has a ring of plausibility.
Assuming Shater does become prime minister, he is likely to face tough times ahead. The country’s financial reserves have more than halved since the revolution and, according to an EU diplomat who was visiting London earlier this week, “Egypt will have to be rescued by the international community in a few months.”
Discussions have been taking place behind the scenes, involving the military council, the Brotherhood, the EU and the IMF, with a view to having an 18-month programme in place by August or September.
The aid will come with “very strong conditionality”, the diplomat said – meaning that the Brotherhood (assuming it holds the reins of government by then) will have to accept a very tough austerity package.
The Brotherhood has “a good economic team”, the diplomat said, and it recognises the need for austerity. However, all sides also recognise that persuading the Egyptian public to accept it will be problematic politically. The Brotherhood is therefore planning to announce a series of popular measures during its first weeks in power before moving on to the unpopular ones – such as addressing the subsidies on bread and fuel.
Bahrain: Activist Ala’a Shehabi has circulated video showing the crown prince being met by a small crowd of protester chanting “we want the downfall of the regime” in the village of Sanabis.
She tweeted:
Sanabis village is an opposition stronghold, very rare would a member of the ruling troika set foot there particularly at this time #Bahrain
— Dr Ala’a Shehabi (@alaashehabi) April 18, 2012
Guardian correspondent Paul Weaver, who is Bahrain to cover Sunday’s Grand Prix, says 15 demonstrations are planned in the kingdom today.
There was a heavy security presence in Dera’a during yesterday’s UN observer mission, according to video from activists.
It doesn’t look as if they are being granted unfettered access.
Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, says the bombardment of Homs appears to be increasing despite last Thursday’s ceasefire.
Speaking to reporters last night she said:
I would observe that the situation is not improving, the violence is continuing, the bombardment, particularly in Homs, seems to be increasing, and the conditions that one would want and need to see for the effective deployment of the balance of the monitors are not at present in place.
She repeated the point on Twitter this morning:
In #Syria, the violence is continuing. The bombardment, particularly in Homs and Idlib, is increasing.
— Susan Rice (@AmbassadorRice) April 18, 2012
Rice said Annan’s mission represented “potentially the last best effort to resolve the situation through peaceful diplomatic means”.
But she conceded that mission may be “impossible”.
It may be that the government’s logic is that it will continue the use of violence despite its repeated commitments as long as it can get away with it. From the US point of view, we have been very clear that we have no illusions—that we are going to assess the government as we have today on the basis of its actions, not its words. We’re very concerned with the resumption and the escalation of violence, particularly the bombardment in Homs and we are by no means limiting our efforts to the good diplomatic work that we are supporting here at the United Nations, but also very much engaged in efforts to strengthen and increase the pressure on Assad and hence the meeting today in Paris on sanctions. We’re also very much interested in supporting the opposition to cohere and coalesce—the peaceful political opposition—and we are providing non-lethal support, primarily medical supplies and communications equipment to that end. So this is from our view a multifaceted effort, but the political process is one that we will support as long as possibly viable.
This dual approach of proclaiming support for Annan on the one hand contemplating tougher action on the other was criticised as counter productive in the latest International Crisis Group report on Syria.
Four opposition districts in Homs have been bombarded again this morning, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
It told AFP that the neighbourhoods of Jurat al-Shayah, Al-Qarabis, Khaldiyeh and Bayada, all came under attack.
Once again activists have circulated video purporting to show the latest shelling of the city. This clips purports to show the skyline of Khadiyeh.
(all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. The Arab League has urged Syria to help UN observers and the crackdown in Bahrain continues ahead of Sunday’s Grand Prix.
Here’s a roundup of the latest developments:
Syria
• Oppositions activists and the government accused each other of breaching the precarious ceasefire as an advance team of United Nations observers was spotted in the southern city of Dera’a, the New York Times reports. “Three United Nations cars came, escorted by security,” said Ammar, a law student in Dera’a. He said protesters took to the streets instantly to send a message to the observers, who stayed closeted in an extended meeting with the local governor.
• Arab League ministers have pressed Syria to co-operate with UN monitors after meeting international envoy Kofi Annan. A statement issued after meeting in Qatar said: “We request the Syrian government to help observers do their job and allow transport and the ability to reach all areas in Syria, and not to impose conditions on them that prevent them from doing their job.”
• The United Nations security council is expected to approve deploying a full mission of 250 monitors to Syria later today, but secretary general Ban Ki-moon questioned whether that number would be sufficient, the LA Times reports. “I think this is not enough, considering the current situation and considering the vastness of the country, and that is why we need very efficient mobility of our observer mission,” he said.
• International tensions over the observer mission are mounting after Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused unnamed countries of seeking to destroy Annan’s plan for a peaceful resolution to the 13-month-long crisis. His remarks seemed aimed at both western and Arab countries, especially Qatar and Saudi Arabia, leading opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
• China’s foreign minister is meeting with his Syrian counterpart in the latest show of support for Damascus despite Beijing’s tentative engagement with the opposition. The official Xinhua News Agency said Yang Jiechi exchanged views on the latest Syrian developments on Wednesday with Walid Moallem in Beijing.
Sheila Lyall Grant and Huberta von Voss-Wittig said in a letter accompanying the video that as a champion of women’s equality, Assad could not “hide behind her husband”.
Bahrain
• Bahrain has arrested at least 60 protest leaders in recent days to try to prevent widescale unrest ahead of a controversial Formula One Grand Prix this week, according to activists. They also said riot police had used live ammunition for the first time since last year’s pro-democracy protest movement was crushed, firing bullets into the air.
• The Bahraini royal family is divided over whether to free a jailed human rights leader, Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, who has been on hunger strike for more than 60 days, the Independent reports. A Bahraini source told the paper: “They were going to release him three weeks ago but this was vetoed by hardliners in the family.”
Libya
• A former Libyan dissident who was abducted and flown to one of Muammar Gaddafi’s prisons in a so-called rendition operation mounted with the help of MI6 has started legal proceedings against Jack Straw, who was British foreign secretary at the time. Lawyers representing Abdel Hakim Belhaj confirmed that they had served papers on Straw alleging his complicity in the torture that Belhaj subsequently suffered, as well as misfeasance in public office.
Egypt
• The election authorities have upheld the disqualification of 10 presidential candidates including Omar Suleiman, former intelligence chief; and Khairat Shater the Muslim Brotherhood financier; and the Salifist Hazem Salah abu Ismai. A member of the judicial commission said: “All appeals have been rejected because nothing new was offered in the appeal requests.”
Israel
• An Israeli soldier filmed slamming his M16 assault rifle into the face of a Danish protester faces possible dismissal from the army following an investigation and after conceding to friends he had “erred” in his action. Amid continued widespread coverage of the incident in the Israeli media, the defence minister, Ehud Barak, joined in the condemnation of the incident, saying the actions of Lt Col Shalom Eisner were unacceptable and that a full inquiry would be held.
Morocco
• Human Rights Watch has urged the authorities to release a rapper who has spent three weeks in pretrial detention on charges that he insulted the police in his songs. Police arrested Mouad Belghouat, known as “al-Haqed” because of a YouTube video with a photo of a policeman whose head has been replaced with a donkey’s.
There may have been no revolution in Morocco last year, but the thirst for change and accountability is real. As other Arab regimes discovered, promising reform can only get you so far before it becomes a matter of re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. Perhaps Morocco still has more lessons to learn than to teach after the Arab uprisings.
Iran
• A popular Iranian singer who publicly defied regime censorship by releasing pro-opposition songs on the internet has been sentenced to a year in jail. Arya Aramnejad, 28, a musician from Iran’s northern city of Babol, fell foul of the authorities after singing political songs in condemnation of the regime’s crackdown against the Green movement.
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Iranian singer Arya Aramnejad sentenced to a year in jail
Posted by: | CommentsA popular Iranian singer who publicly defied regime censorship by releasing pro-opposition songs on the internet has been sentenced to a year in jail.
Arya Aramnejad, 28, a musician from Iran’s northern city of Babol, fell foul of the authorities after singing political songs in condemnation of the regime’s crackdown against the Green movement.
Aramnejad – whose works are banned inside Iran – initially released two songs in support of the movement during the campaign period before the country’s disputed presidential elections in 2009.
In the unrest following the elections, which saw dozens of protesters killed and hundreds arrested, Aramnejad released music that particularly infuriated officials and led to his arrest.
The songs were about the Ashura protests in December 2009 , when the Green movement exploited a religious rally in Iran’s Shia Islam calender to express their anger to a regime which describes itself as Islamic and says it abides by Islamic principals.
Shortly after the protests, Aramnejad released a song called Ali Barkhiz (Wake-up Ali, or Rise Ali), which spoke out against the violent crackdown against the opposition. Hundreds of protesters were arrested during Ashura protests and riot police was reported to have opened fire to contain the protesters. A video posted on YouTube showing what appears to be a security truck running over protesters and dead bodies sparked an outcry.
The “Ali” in Ali Barkhiz had a double-meaning, referring both to the first name of the Iranian supreme leader – calling upon him to wake up and see reality – or Imam Ali, a cousin of the prophet Muhammad and revered among Shia Muslims as a symbol of justice, calling upon him to rise and uproot injustice.
One version of the song, which made it into a video clip posted on YouTube, has been viewed more than 80,000 times.
Security forces arrested Aramnejad for the first time in February 2010 after his song attracted a great deal of attention. He spent 45 days in solitary confinement before being allowed to contact his family. He was later sentenced to six months, a term he served from November 2011 until recently, when he was allowed out of prison for the Persian new year.
While in jail, he has been subjected to mistreatment and torture – including sexual humiliation – his friends say. He has never been granted legal representation.
A friend of Aramnejad who spoke to the Guardian on condition of anonymity, said: “Arya has been recently informed that he has been given a one-year jail sentence for his other songs released since 2010.”
He’s been accused of acting against national security and spreading propaganda against the regime, the friend said.
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Abu Qatada arrested ahead of fresh deportation attempt
Posted by: | CommentsThe radical Islamist preacher Abu Qatada has been arrested at his London address and told that a fresh attempt is to be made to deport him.
He is expected to appear before Britain’s anti-terrorism court, the special immigration appeals commission, in London this afternoon to face new deportation proceedings and Home Office demands that he be returned to Long Lartin maximum security prison in the meantime.
UK Border Agency officers arrived on Tuesday morning at the north London home where Qatada has been living under highly restrictive bail conditions, including a 22-hour curfew. The move came just hours before the home secretary, Theresa May, was due to report to MPs on progress in securing a “no torture evidence” deal with the Jordanian authorities to enable him to be sent back there. May was also set to confirm that she would not appeal against the European court of human rights ruling that blocked Qatada’s deportation.
A Home Office spokesman said: “UK Border Agency officers have today arrested Abu Qatada and told him that we intend to resume deportation proceedings against him. The home secretary will make a statement to parliament later.”
The expiry of the three-month deadline for the Home Office to lodge an appeal with Strasbourg means the legal block on a new deportation attempt has been lifted. Qatada is expected to fight the move in the courts – a battle that could last months.
More details soon …
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Anders Behring Breivik gives evidence – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsBreivik cites Wikipedia as a source for his learning.
Breivik said much of his “learning” comes from Wikipedia: “The English articles there contain a lot of information”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik says he does not have formal education but that his studies between leaving school and 2010 amount to 15,000 hours.
The court is in session again and Breivik is taking umbrage at being asked about his childhood.
Breivik says no point delving into his early years. “I had a good childhood. That is not why I decided to be a militant nationalist.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
We mentioned earlier (see 9.39am) that Breivik had referred to a Times article from 9 February 2010 in which he claimed that it said:
Three fifths of Englishmen believe that the UK has turned into a dysfunctional society as a result of multiculturalism.
There appears to be no such article on that date. It appears that he may be inaccurately citing the paper’s splash on that date (link behind paywall), which makes no reference to multiculturalism and immigration. It reads:
Nearly, three fiths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in.
But the target of their ire does not appear to be immigrants. The paper says:
Voters’ main fire is directed at political institutions: 73% say politics is broken in Britain and 77% say there are far fewer people in public life that they admire than there used to be. The poll suggests anger at MPs who have had to repay expenses. A third say that they will vote against their local MP if he or she had been required to repay money.
He has described what he did on 22 July last year as a “suicide attack”.
I didn’t expect to survive the day.
The court is now in recess for 20 minutes.
Breivik claims that he cried on the opening day of the trial when viewing his propaganda video, because it was touching.
Here is the clip again.
Breivik says he cried at his propaganda film because it was “touching”, “I was thinking that my country and my ethnic group, they are dying”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik:v “I know it is gruesome what I have done and I know that I have caused an incredible amount of pain to thousands of people.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
But, Breivik added: “It was necessary.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
The journalists’ conference that Breivik claims to have targetted appears to be that run by Skup, a foundation set up to help promote investigative journalism.
In his manifesto, “2083: A European Declaration of Independence”, Breivik wrote that “the most notable journalists/editors from all the nations [sic] media/news companies attend” the conference, and said its “light or non-existent security” made it a “perfect target”.
Breivik just said that the journalists’ national conference in Norway would be a “more legitimate target than Utoya”. Says he tried.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik: “I worked really hard to realise that but I was unfortunately unable to carry out the attack on the conference.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik is talking about the Knights Templar. In its opening statement yesterday, the prosecution suggested the anti-Islam network cited by Breveik “does not exist”.
Breivik claims the Knights Templar anti Islam network comprised of “just a few individuals” – “I never said it was a huge organisation.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik is now challenging the report that found him to be “legally insane”. He wants the court to acknowledge that he is sane and for him to be tried as such.
Breivik says he has found 200 lies in the psychiatric report declaring him criminally insane. Blames self for presenting “pompous” persona.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Since this report, another report by two forensic psychologists concluded that he is legally sane.
Breveik says he has learned from al-Qaida.
Breivik says he learned a lot from Al Qaida – “AQ is most successful miltitant organisation in the world”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik is asked about his claim to be the defender of Norway as the prosecutor tries to establish who gave him the mandate for his actions. He says he gave himself the mandate.
Breivik says he gave himself the “mandate” to commit the attacks but had contact with other “militant nationalists” in 2001 and 2002
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
The prosecutor is now cross-examing Breivik.
The topics will cover how Breveik became who he is, how he planned the 22 July attacks and what happened on that day.
Breivik says his actions on 22 July provided a template for al-Qaida.
Breivik says “universal human rights” gave him the mandate to “defend the Norwegian people”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik says Al Qaida have “learned from 22 july” (date of attacks) that one-man cells are the only option now for “militant nationalists”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik claimed this morning that Norwegians would be a minority in their own capital “within five years”. That is not what the statisticians say.
Statistics Norway predicts that immigrants are set to make up almost half of Oslo’s population by 2040 and its definition of “immigrants” includes children of immigrants (unlike in the UK where children of immigrants are not defined as immigrants), the Local reported last month.
Immigrants are defined in the statistics as either people who have either moved to Norway from another country, or the Norway-born children of two first-generation immigrants.
According to Statistics Norway’s most likely scenario, Oslo’s immigrant population will rise from today’s 28% to 47% in 2040.
In the country as a whole, the immigrant population is expected to jump from 12 to 24%, or from 600,000 people today to 1.5 million in 2040.
(This post has been updated to illustrate that the definition of “immigrants” is different than that commonly used in the UK as it includes children of immigrants as well).
Helen Pidd has filed an account of the morning’s proceedings. Here are some excerpts:
He [Breivik] expressed no regret for planning and carrying out the attacks which left 77 dead last summer. Maintaining he acted out of “goodness not evil” to prevent a “major civil war”, Breivik insisted, “I would have done it again.” …
He quoted from a variety of sources to support his case, including, he said, a story written in the Times in February 2010 which he said reported that “three out of five Englishmen believe that the UK has turned into a dysfunctional society as a result of multiculturalism”. The Guardian has not yet found evidence of the Times report.
Breivik told the court that “ridiculous” lies had been told about him, rattling off a list which accused him of being a narcissist who was obsessed with the red jumper he wore to his first court hearing, of having a “bacterial phobia”, “an incestuous relationship with my mother”, “of being a child killer despite no one who died on Utoya being under 14″.
He was not insane, he repeated many times. He claimed it was Norway’s politicians who should be locked up in the sort of mental institution he can expect to spend the rest of his days if the court declares him criminally insane at the end of the ten-week trial. He said: “They expect us to applaud our ethnic and cultural doom… They should be characterised as insane, not me. Why is this the real insanity? This is the real insanity because it is not rational to work to deconstruct ones own ethnic group, culture and religion.”
Breivik insisted he was not alone in fighting against “mass immigration”. He singled out as examples the National Socialist Underground, the neo-Nazi terror cell responsible for killing nine immigrants and one policewoman in Germany, and Peter Mangs, the man suspected of carrying out a seven-year killing spree in the Swedish city of Malmö. It is important, he said, that these “heroic young people” should be “celebrated” for “sacrificing” their lives for the “conservative revolution”
Breveik has concluded his statement, asking to be found not guilty.
I cannot plead guilty, I acted to defend my country. So I ask to be acquitted.
The court will now take a lunch break until 11.30am BST.
Breivik has said he is exercising “self-censorship, just so you know” but there is little evidence of that.
Helen Pidd writes:
After insisting that he would have “done it again” because “the offences against my people and my fellow partisans” are “as bad”, Breivik said he had not targetted innocent young people on Utøya. He said those on the island on 22 July were “brainwashed”. Those he killed, he said, were “not innocent non-political children; these were young people who worked to actively uphold multicultural values.”
Breivik has claimed his views chime at least partially with those of the leaders of France, Germany and the UK who he says have all expressed the opinion that multiculturalism does not work.
Breivik: “Sarkozy, Merkel and Cameron have all admitted multiculturalism does not work”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik has been ordered to wrap up by the judge but the accused says he only has three pages left and it is “essential” to explain his actions. The prosecution says he should be allowed to finish.
He has mentioned Muslims directly for the first time.
#breivik: muslims do not even want to integrate. This is myth. They want autonomy under sharia, they despise our values.
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 17, 2012
The judge has intervened in Breivik’s testimony asking him to keep it relevant after he talks about other countries and has also asked him to speed it up.
Judge interrupts breivik. 30 mins have passed. He says he’s half way. She tells him to wrap up. He says not possible.
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 17, 2012
#Breivik judge asks him to speed it up. At least stick to Norway comments she says, after he talks about Japanese society…
— Matthew Price (@matthewwprice) April 17, 2012
Judge asks #Breivik to finish. He still has another 5 pages to read. Argues that is already cut from 20 to 13 pages. #22juli
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 17, 2012
Judge concerned this is taking too long. Defence says they do have 5 days so encourages judge to allow him to continue#Breivik continues
— Matthew Price (@matthewwprice) April 17, 2012
Some more updates from Helen:
Breivik says he would have done it all again because he was motivated by “goodness, not evil” and did it to save lives.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Can’t believe they are allowing all of this – Breivik compares the Labour party youth wing with the Hitlerjugend.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik claimed he had lessened his rhetoric out of respect for the victims and survivors.
He said:
Dying for your people is not only our right but our duty. I am not scared by the prospect of being in prison all my life. I was born in a prison since I cannot…This prison is called Norway.
Breivik has been railing against marxists, multiculturalists, journalists, feminists.
Now railing against “cultural marxists” who introduced “feminism, quotas… who transformed the church, school”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik: “Can norway be a democracy if 100% of news agencies promote multicultural values? The answer is no…”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik now quotes from the Times, February 9 2010, a survey which allegedly said:
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik quotes from the Times: “3/5 englishmen believe that the UK has turned into a dysfunctional society as a result of multiculturalism”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
I can find no record of the Times article he referred to in his evidence.
Breivik has started giving evidence so the TV cameras are switched off.
Breivik:”I have carried out the most sophisticated and spectacular political attack committed in europe since the second world war.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik has been given permission by the judge to read the statement his defence counsel referred to yesterday. His lawyer said it would take about 30 minutes to read the statement.
Judge tells Breivik he does not have to give evidence but if he does so, he has duty to tell the truth. He will start reading by a statement
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
The court is back in session. Lay judge Thomas Inderbro’s statements on Facebook “may weaken the trust in his impartiality”, says chief judge Elisabeth Arntzen.
As such he is to be dismissed from the case and replaced.
Another update from Helen in Oslo while we wait for the trial to resume:
Various colleagues and Tweeters have asked why Breivik shook hands with court staff when he arrived in court for the first day of his trial yesterday. I checked with a judicial press officer and she said there is no convention – “what he did was neither normal nor abnormal”. No one had to shake his hand. But the judicial authorities have have been at pains to treat Breivik’s trial as a normal trial as much as possible. Even though Breivik has admitted the killings, he is pleading not guilty, on the grounds of “necessity”. And in Norway, as in Britain and beyond, the accused is innocent until proven otherwise. So to refuse to shake Breivik’s hand could have been seen to be not affording him the respect given to other “normal” defendants.
Breivik once more made a closed fist salute when he arrived in court this morning, as he did on day one.
While we’re waiting for the decision on the lay judge, Helen writes:
Sitting in court this week among all the journalists, lawyers, survivors and bereaved are at least two people who knew Breivik well. One, a reporter for the broadcasters NRK, went to school with him. The other, Kristoffer Nikolai Andresen, 33, is a childhood friend of the defendant who has been signed up by the Norwegian tabloid, VG, to report on the trial. I can’t link to Andressen’s full court report from day one because it’s not online, but he is at pains to stress that he no longer considers Breivik a friend.
Helen writes:
The lay judge posted on Facebook last year that the “death penalty is the only just thing to do” in Breivik’s case. This message was posted on 23 July, the day after Breivik’s massacres.
The lead judge, Elisabeth Arntzen, told the court that Thomas Inderbro, 33, a receptionist in his normal life, “acknowledges giving such statements”. All the counsel were given the chance to object. The defence, prosecution and lawyers for the victims and bereaved all agreed that they viewed Inderbro as “legally incompetent” and should be replaced on the panel.
Under the Norwegian legal system, Breivik’s case will be heard by a panel of two professional judges and three lay judges (ie members of the public).
After the issue was raised by the prosecution, all parties i.e. prosecution defence and counsel for the aggrieved persons have all agreed that the lay judge alleged to have written on their facebook page last summer that Breivik deserved to be executed (see 8.03am) should be removed from the panel.
The judge has called for a 30-minute break.
Another important update from Helen Pidd.
The English interpreters have just issued a clarification about a mistranslation yesterday of Breivik’s defence. He did not invoke “self defence” but “necessity”. This is allowed under section 47 of the Norwegian penal code.
Section 47 reads:
No person may be punished for any act that he has committed in order to save someone’s person or property from an otherwise unavoidable danger when the circumstances justified him in regarding this danger as particularly significant in relation to the damage that might be caused by his act.
Helen Pidd writes about an overnight development:
There has been an upset overnight after a blogger claimed that one of the lay judges had written on their Facebook page last summer that Breivik deserved to be executed. When the case resumes at 8am BST, the defence are expected to ask for this judge to be removed from the panel. Luckily the court appointed a reserve judge, who was in court yesterday watching proceedings.
Once that matter is resolved, the judges will decide whether Breivik is allowed to read out a half-hour written statement he has prepared while on remand in prison. He will read this, if allowed, and will then give evidence, answering questions posed by the prosecution. His testimony is scheduled to last five days
.
Good morning. Welcome to live coverage of day two of the trial of Anders Behring Breivik.
The accused is due to take to the stand to give evidence today. TV cameras have been banned from broadcasting his testimony to avoid giving Breivik a direct platform to air his views. However, reporters are still allowed in and Helen Pidd will be filing updates from the courtroom.
Yesterday, Breivik pleaded not guilty to the charges against him.
You can read yesterday’s live blog here.
And here is the news story that appeared in today’s Guardian.
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Connecting the dots of this climate change crisis
Posted by: Editor | Comments (0)The Williams river was so languid and lovely last Saturday morning that it was almost impossible to imagine the violence with which it must have been running on 28 August 2011. Yet the evidence was all around: sand piled high on its banks, trees still scattered as if by a giant’s fist, and most obvious of all, a utilitarian temporary bridge where, for 140 years, a graceful covered bridge had spanned the water.
The YouTube video of that bridge crashing into the raging river was Vermont’s iconic image from its worst disaster in memory, the record flooding that followed Hurricane Irene’s rampage through the state in August 2011. It claimed dozens of lives, as it cut a more than $1bn swath of destruction across the eastern US.
I watched it on TV in Washington, DC, just after emerging from jail, having been arrested at the White House during mass protests of the Keystone XL pipeline. Since Vermont is my home, it took the theoretical – the ever more turbulent, erratic, and dangerous weather that the tar sands pipeline from Canada would help ensure – and made it all too concrete. It shook me bad.
And I am not the only one.
New data (pdf) released last month by researchers at Yale and George Mason universities show that a lot of Americans are growing far more concerned about climate change, precisely because they are drawing the links between freaky weather, a climate kicked off-kilter by a fossil-fuel guzzling civilization, and their own lives. After a year with a record number of multibillion dollar weather disasters, seven in ten Americans now believe that “global warming is affecting the weather.”
No less striking, 35% of the respondents reported that extreme weather had affected them personally in 2011. As Yale’s Anthony Laiserowitz told the New York Times, “People are starting to connect the dots.”
Which is what we must do. As long as this remains one abstract problem in the long list of problems, we will never get to it. There will always be something going on each day that is more important, including, if you are facing flood or drought, the immediate danger.
But in reality, climate change is actually the biggest thing that is going on every single day. If we could only see that pattern, we would have a fighting chance. It is like one of those trompe l’oeil puzzles where you can only catch sight of the real picture by holding it a certain way.
So, this weekend, we will be doing our best to hold our planet a certain way so that the most essential pattern is evident. At 350.org, we are organizing a global day of action that is all about dot-connecting; in fact, you can follow the action at climatedots.org.
The day will begin in the Marshall Islands of the far Pacific, where the sun first rises on our planet, and where locals will hold a daybreak underwater demonstration on their coral reef already threatened by rising seas. They will hold, in essence, a giant dot – and so will our friends in Bujumbura, Burundi, where March flooding destroyed 500 homes. In Dakar, Senegal, they’ll mark the tidal margins of recent storm surges. In Adelaide, Australia, activists will host a “dry creek regatta” to highlight the spreading drought down under.
Pakistani farmers – some of the millions driven from their homes by unprecedented flooding over the last two years – will mark the day on the banks of the Indus; in Ayuthaya, Thailand, Buddhist monks will protest next to a temple destroyed by December’s epic deluges that also left the capital, Bangkok, awash.
Activists in Ulanbataar will focus on the ongoing effects of drought in Mongolia. In Daegu, South Korea, students will gather with bags of rice and umbrellas to connect the dots between climate change, heavy rains, and the damage caused to South Korea’s rice crop in recent years. In Amman, Jordan, Friends of the Earth Middle East will be forming a climate dot on the shores of the Dead Sea to draw attention to how climate change-induced drought has been shrinking that sea.
In Herzliya, Israel, people will form a dot on the beach to stand in solidarity with island nations and coastal communities around the world that are feeling the impact of climate change. In newly-freed Libya, students will hold a teach-in. In Oman, elders will explain how the weather along the Persian Gulf has shifted in their lifetimes.
There will be actions in the cloud forests of Costa Rica, and in the highlands of Peru where drought has wrecked the lives of local farmers. In Monterrey, Mexico, they’ll recall last year’s floods that did nearly $2bn in damage. In Chamonix, France, climbers will put a giant red dot on the melting glaciers of the Alps.
And across North America, as the sun moves westward, activists in Halifax, Canada, will “swim for survival” across its bay to highlight rising sea levels, while high school students in Nashville, Tennessee will gather on a football field inundated by 2011′s historic killer floods.
In Portland, Oregon, city dwellers will hold an umbrella-decorating party to commemorate March’s record rains. In Bandelier, New Mexico, firefighters in full uniform will remember last year’s record forest fires and unveil the new solar panels on their fire station. In Miami, Manhattan, and Maui, citizens will line streets that scientists say will eventually be underwater. In the high Sierra, on one of the glaciers steadily melting away, protesters will unveil a giant banner with just two words, a quote from that classic of western children’s literature, The Wizard of Oz: “I’m melting” it will say, in letters three-stories high.
This is a full-on fight between information and disinformation, between the urge to witness and the urge to cover up. The fossil fuel industry has funded endless efforts to confuse people, to leave an impression that nothing much is going on. But as with the tobacco industry before them, the evidence has simply gotten too strong. Once you saw enough people die of lung cancer, you made the connection.
The situation is the same today. Now, it is not just the scientists and the insurance industry; it is your neighbors. Even pleasant weather starts to seem weird. Fifteen thousand US temperature records were broken, mainly in the east and midwest, in the month of March alone, as a completely unprecedented heat wave moved across the continent. Most people I met enjoyed the rare experience of wearing shorts in winter, but they were still shaking their heads. Something was clearly wrong and they knew it.
The one institution in our society that is not likely to be much help in spreading the news is … the news. Studies show our newspapers and TV channels paying ever less attention to our shifting climate. In fact, in 2011, ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox spent twice as much time discussing Donald Trump as climate change. Do not expect representatives from Saturday’s Connect the Dots day to show up on Sunday’s talk shows. Over the last three years, those inside-the-Beltway extravaganzas have devoted 98 minutes total to the planet’s biggest challenge. Last year, in fact, all the Sunday talk shows spent exactly nine minutes of Sunday talking time on climate change – and here is a shock: all of it was given over to Republican politicians in the great denial sweepstakes.
So, here’s a prediction: next Sunday, no matter how big and beautiful the demonstrations may be that we’re mounting across the world, “Face the Nation” and “Meet the Press” won’t be connecting the dots. They will be gassing along about Newt Gingrich’s retirement from the presidential race or Mitt Romney’s coming nomination, and many of the commercials will come from oil companies lying about their environmental efforts.
If we are going to tell this story – and it is the most important story of our time – we are going to have to tell it ourselves.
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