Archive for Money
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Fuel panic: live updates
Posted by: | CommentsSo, how did we get to this point? Yes, around 2,000 drivers for seven petrol distribution companies have, in the main, voted for possible strike action over concerns about working conditions and safety. However, any stoppage requires a full seven days notice, and with talks at the conciliation service Acas apparently due it seems very unlikely that anything will happen before Easter.
Nonetheless, ministers have been consistent in their advice that motorists should avoid possible shortages by topping up part-full tanks if they get a chance. The cabinet office minister, Francis Maude, also advised drivers to have a full jerrycan in the garage, words soon rescinded when it emerged that this contravened official fire service advice.
The official position remains that advice to keep your car full of petrol is merely prudent. The energy secretary, Ed Davey, put it this why earlier today:
We are under no illusion, the impacts of a tanker strike could be very severe for our economy, could really disrupt the lives of millions of people. So we are advising people to keep their fuel tanks topped up.
If they have got a journey, maybe over the Easter holidays, they don’t want their holidays disrupted by these strikers so they should make sure their tanks are full up well in advance.
Here’s that Dorset police message in full, from Chief Inspector Nick Maton:
There is no disruption to the fuel supply in the UK and members of the public should not panic buy.
The actions of some motorists in queuing irresponsibly at petrol stations is causing danger to other road users.
Police are taking action, requesting petrol stations to close temporarily in order to keep traffic flowing.
Once the queues have dispersed, the petrol stations may re-open for short periods.
And thus it appears that the government’s apparent attempts to prevent a fuel-buying panic have, in fact, created just that.
Following repeated criticism of ministers’ warnings that motorists should keep fuel tanks topped up ahead of a possible, but not yet called, strike by tanker drivers from the Unite union, queues at petrol stations have been reported around the country.
And now, Dorset police have issued a brief but dramatic missive, urging drivers not to panic buy and asking petrol stations to consider closing for a period to ease the queues. As the TV news stations show footage of drivers queuing for fuel it would seem that the self-perpetuating nature of events will only intensify
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
House prices down in March … despite actually rising
Posted by: | CommentsThe headlines say house prices, based on the Nationwide data, are showing their “biggest monthly fall in two years” (Reuters) and suffering a “stamp duty hangover” (Daily Mail). The media-savvy economists are calling the 1% dip in March “quite a shock” (Howard Archer) and predict further plunges. Yet the truth is that house prices in Britain rose in March.
In February the price of a typical home was £162,712, but over March it jumped to £163,327 – a rise of £615. Where do I get these figures that so contradict the Nationwide data? From none other than Nationwide itself. Welcome to the mysterious world of “seasonal adjustment”.
It beggars belief to be told that after paying £615 more for an item that actually you are paying less, but then that’s economics for you.
Nationwide does not deny that house prices jumped in March. Its economists say they anticipated the rise, but because it wasn’t as big as they thought it would be they’ve put it down as a price fall. I’m not making this up, by the way.
It seems that spring and summer always see more activity in the property market than autumn and winter. Families prefer to buy now so they can get everything in place for the start of the school year in September. So transaction activity rises, as do prices.
The house price economists like to strip this out of the data. “If you look at the unadjusted figures they will show a rise. But as economists we want to know whether this was driven by predictable seasonal elements or not,” says Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner.
We can blame the US Census Bureau for this. Nationwide’s economics department (like most other economists) use its X12 system to adjust its data. X12 analyses any series of data to identify seasonal elements, then filters them out.
Gardner accepts, though, that house purchasers might not quite see it this way. If they are having to stump up a higher deposit or find a bigger mortgage this month, they will be understandably puzzled that the economists are saying prices are falling.
“Seasonally adjusted prices are more than misleading, they are rubbish,” says Ray Boulger, mortgage expert at John Charcol. “I always ignore what Nationwide and Halifax claim is the monthly change in house prices and look at the real figures, which in Nationwide’s case was a rise of 0.4% in March.
“The one positive thing I will say about Nationwide is that it is much more up front than other index providers in the press release about the fact that the figures commented upon are seasonally adjusted.”
It’s not just house prices that are seasonally adjusted – so are the Bank of England’s mortgage lending figures, which results in “massive adjustments” in December and January. Only the Council of Mortgage Lenders doesn’t gerrymander the figures, Boulger says.
Let’s say I’ve just bought a home in Britain, paying the average £163,327. My 90% mortgage will be £146,994 compared to £146,440 if I’d bought the month before. Perhaps I should pop into a Nationwide branch and demand that £554 is wiped off my mortgage for “seasonal adjustment” reasons. But I think they might just tell me to bog off.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
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What’s that sound? It’s Masternaut, the car gadget that says you’re driving badly
Posted by: | CommentsAs I turned the wheel to steer the car through the roundabout, there was a shriek and the flash of warning lights. Beside me, Wayne Gilbert smiled.
I had, apparently, steered too aggressively into the curve. The lights and the noise came from Masternaut, a new electronic device attached to the dashboard that is claimed to nudge you towards more careful, considerate driving – and to cut fuel bills by up to a fifth. When businesses have to justify every expense, and with fuel costs up 46% in real terms in the past five years, that is a saving not to be sniffed at.
Masternaut’s custom-fitted “black box” has a GPS for location, a gyroscopic and inertial system to detect turns and acceleration, and a data feed from the the microprocessor that controls the engine to detect revs and use.
Gilbert, chief technology officer at Masternaut, says the device could usher in the age of “ecodriving”: driven by near-real-time feedback not just to the driver, but also to managers back at base.
That does have its worrying side. Neal Parkinson, the company’s head of consultancy, notes that in any sizeable business fleet – and especially of professional van drivers – there will be good and bad drivers, for whom the data will confirm what was already suspected. “How you then have that conversation about improvement is quite a difficult thing,” says Parkinson.
An autopilot it is not, yet. Today, it’s more like a driving instructor that tells you when you’re doing things wrong – braking too harshly, accelerating too aggressively, or turning so tightly that things might be thrown around in the back. Fit it to a van delivering porcelain and you can see it might be useful.
Other settings mean it can note when a vehicle has been idling for longer than a set time, a common cause both of pollution and excess fuel use. It’s like a super-tachometer, able to locate you on a map and point out where you did things wrong, or right.
In the long term, says Gilbert, we’ll see far more sophisticated feedback between drivers and vehicles. He’s a guinea pig. “My own car is a jabbering cave of this kind of technology,” he says. “In the next five to 10 years we’ll see complex event-driven processing feeding back in real time to the driver.”
He points to the crash involving 34 vehicles on the M5 in November, when seven people died in a pile-up suspected of being caused by smoke from a bonfire. With the technology he envisages, the vehicles could have sensed the changing road conditions and given the drivers more rapid feedback – and perhaps controlled their speed as they detected stationary vehicles ahead using radar.
Automatic stopping systems are already fitted to new Mercedes to prevent the classic “roundabout shunt”, where drivers start forward because they see a gap in traffic – but don’t realise the motorist in front hasn’t moved.
It’s not a big step from that to the “driverless car”, an idea for which Google has filed a patent. That would create vehicles able, for example, to guide people around tourist spots or find their way to repair shops. It, too, would rely on a GPS locatorthat would connect to the internet and figure out its location. Google admitted in late 2010 that it had been working on driverless cars when it said test vehicles had navigated more than 1,000 miles in the US without drivers, though two humans were always in the car in case the software failed.
Google’s engineers say robotic cars will have faster reactions than humans, which could reduce accidents and allow more vehicles into the same road space at any given speed, cutting delays.
The purely driverless car is likely to be some way off, which means systems such as Masternaut’s, which is being fitted in fleets in the UK and Europe, will become more common. Gilbert points to an experiment by Norwich Union in which drivers’ insurance premiums were linked to how many miles they drove. The company abandoned it – but there is some suspicion that was due to actuaries who feared computers would take over their jobs of carefully working out how much to charge each age group, so that young drivers up to the age of 25 pay enormous amounts while those who might be just as risky but are older pay far less.
Gilbert knows his company’s systems can ensure careful behaviour: he has two sons. “I told each one, when I let them take my car out, that I’d know precisely how they’d driven it because of the feedback. I told one that if he managed five years without a crash or any points on his licence then I’d buy him a car of his own. ”
Gilbert had to stump up.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
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