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Start Your Own Online T-shirt Business – Great Commission – Brand New
Posted by: | CommentsStart Your Own Online T-shirt Business – Great Commission – Brand New
Constant Split Testing – Excellent Commissions. How To Start Your Own Tshirt Business On The Internet. Step By Step Video Tutorials Walk You Through Starting Up Your Own Tee Shirt Company. Start-up, Promotion, Printing, Design And More.
Start Your Own Online T-shirt Business – Great Commission – Brand New
Rolling Stones Exile on Main Street book to become Virgin feature film
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A book detailing one of the most tumultuous periods of The Rolling Stones is set to be turned into a film via Richard Branson’s production company Virgin Produced, reports Deadline Hollywood.
Robert Greenfield’s Exile on Main Street: A Season in Hell with the Rolling Stones examines the troubled genesis of the group’s 10th UK album. The critically acclaimed record that includes the hits Rocks Off and Tumbling Dice, was made during recording sessions that were notoriously chaotic. The band, who had left Britain as tax exiles, decamped to the Villa Nellcôte in the south of France to record the double album. Drugs, alcohol and a stream of visiting celebrity friends (including William S Burroughs and Gram Parsons) were constant distractions, while the relationship between Mick Jagger and Keith Richards was at a particularly low point. It is thought the film will focus on tussles between the lead singer and the guitarist, although no casting has yet been announced.
A previous documentary about the making of the album, Stephen Kijak’s Stones in Exile, coincided with Exile on Main Street’s remastering and re-release in 2010.
Branson’s occasional involvement in film production has resulted in critical hits (Steven Soderbergh’s Sex, Lies and Videotape) and the odd misfire (The Rachel Papers). After a film-making hiatus during much of the 90s and 00s the entreprenuer announced the formation of Virgin Produced, which has been behind recent popular films like pop-psychology thriller Limitless and Tarsem Singh’s swords and sandals epic Immortals.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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Eurozone crisis live: Euro slides as Spanish fears grow
Posted by: | CommentsSpanish and Italian bond yields continue to rise this morning. Here’s the latest prices from the Reuters terminal:
Spain’s 10-year bond yield: 6.166%, up 17.8 basis points
Italy’s 10-year bond yield: 5.67%, up 13.5 basis points
[Yields move inversely to the price of a bond, so a rising yield shows that the value of the debt has dropped in the bond market.]
This doesn’t immediately affect the country’s borrowing costs [as these are bonds which have already been auctioned], but does indicate that investors might seek a higher rate of return at the next sale. And worryingly, Spain is due to hold two debt auctions later this week.
Megan Greene, senior economist at Roubini Global Economics, is warning today that Spain has no hope of regaining market confidence, whatever prime minister Mariano Rajoy chooses. She writes:
If the Spanish government does not announce further austerity measures, the markets think it is not serious about hitting its fiscal targets and shun Spanish sovereign debt. If the Spanish government does announce additional austerity measures, however, the markets fret that the swingeing cuts will push Spain further into recession and shun Spanish government debt.
Were Joseph Heller still with us, he might be planning a sequel…
A financial crisis gives statesmen and monarchs a chance to show their mettle. Think Greek president Carolos Papoulias giving up his salary, or his Italian counterpart Giorgio Napolitano helping to hold Italy’s political system together last November as the Berlusconi government collapsed.
So how has Spain’s King Juan Carlos responded to the current crisis? He’s shot an elephant. And possibly a brace of water buffalo too.
The king’s decision to go big-game hunting in Botswana, during a trip to the African country, has been widely criticised in Spain. As our Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett reports, the visit is a stark contrast to the austerity being suffered back home, as killing an elephant comes with a $15,000 price-tag.
Basque politician Julia Madrazo said the king should spend his time “puzzling over the fate of his country” rather than hunting exotic animals and endangered species.
The trip hasn’t gone smoothly for the 74-year-old monarch either – he has returned to Spain for a hit operation after falling badly.
M’learned colleague Larry Elliott argues this morning that the eurozone must choose between three different paths out of the crisis.
He dubs the first “Austerity Avenue” — effectively continuing on the present road of driving down wages and production costs in Europe’s already weak peripheral countries, in the hope of boosting competiveness and lowering the divergences within Europe:
There are both economic and political problems with this route. Austerity is killing growth, making it harder to reduce government borrowing, and it is inflaming populations unhappy at the prospect of year after year of falling living standards. This is a bumpy road; it may also prove to be a short one.
Another option is “High-Investment Highway” — where Europe would bow to pressure to stimulate growth (and presumably relax its targets for debt reduction in countries such as Spain). Eurobonds — collective borrowing backed by Europe’s richest members, would provide the breathing space.
[George] Soros proposed a scheme last week in which all countries would be able to refinance their debts at the same rate – but, as he admitted, this would never get past the Bundesbank.
The third option is “Buenos Aires Boulevard” — with Europe copying Argentina’s financial crisis of a decade ago, and allowing the likes of Greece to devalue and default. Anathma in the corridors of power in Brussels and Athens (and still opposed by the majority of Greeks), but as Larry points out:
…unless policymakers in Europe can offer their citizens something more enticing than endless austerity, a stroll down Buenos Aires Boulevard will become increasingly enticing.
Asian stock markets were bruised by Europe’s woes today.
Heavy selling in Japan drove the Nikkei down by 1.7%, or 167 points, to 9471. The selloff was led by exporters such as TDK and Nikon (for whom Europe is a key market) and banks.
The rise in Spanish bond yields last week has alarmed traders. Fumiyuki Nakanishi, general manager of investment and research at SMBC Friend Securities, told Reuters that:
Even after the European Central Bank’s liquidity operation earlier this year, the yields of Spain’s government bonds are continuing to rise, which reflects investor doubts over its finances and this concern came to the fore last week.
European markets are calm this morning, though. Here’s an early round-up of the main indices:
UK FTSE 100: up 18 points at 5669, + 0.35%
German DAX: down 28 points at 6555, – 0.4%
French CAC: down 0.5 points at 3188, + 0.02%
Spanish IBEX: up 43 points at 7294, + 0.63%
Italian FTSE MIB: up 50 points at 14408, + 0.35%
The euro has fallen against most major currencies this morning, as eurozone debt fears loom over the foreign exchange markets.
Sterling rose to €1.2182, its highest level since September 2010. That means one euro is worth 82.09p.
Against the dollar, the euro slipped below the $1.30 mark for the first time since mid-February, and also hit a two month low against the yen.
And while the euro slides, Spanish bonds are also being hit. The yield (effectively the interest rate) on the 10-year Spanish bond has jumped over the 6% mark this morning, to 6.09% at pixel time.
Italian bond yields have also risen, with the 10-year yield nudging 5.62%.
German bonds, through, are in demand, driving down the yield on the 10-year bund to a new record low of just 1.628%.
These are all signs that the crisis is heating up again. As Brenda Kelly, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, comments:
The pressure on its bond yields and over-dependence on ECB funding is adding to the mounting evidence that Spain will in fact need a bailout.
This has reignited the fears that should this occur, that the Euro zone will be courting disaster with what is deemed by the markets an insufficient firewall, particularly if Italy follows suit.
It’s a pretty quiet agenda today. We get the latest eurozone trade data this morning, and the details of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases this afternoon. US retail sales data could move the markets this afternoon:
• Eurozone trade balance for February: 10am BST / 11am CET
• US advance retail sales for March: 1.30pm BST / 8.30am EST
• ECB announces bond purchases for last week: 2.30pm BST / 3.30pm CET
In the bond markets, France and the Netherlands are holding debt sales this morning.
And the announcement of the next leader of the World Bank should also come this afternoon.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis.
It’s an edgy Monday morning, as fears over Spain’s financial position grow. Spanish and Italian bond yields will be closely watched today, for signs that investors are driving up borrowing costs again.
The euro has already come under pressure – hitting a 19-month low against the pound (of which more shortly).
Meanwhile, the crisis continues to dominate France’s presidential race. Nicolas Sarkozy declared yesterday that (if re-elected) he would push the European Central Bank to do more to support economic growth. François Hollande, though, continues to lead the polling.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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Former Northern Rock boss bids for 632 Lloyds branches
Posted by: | CommentsGary Hoffman, the former boss of Northern Rock, is attempting to spoil the Co-op’s offer to buy 632 branches from Lloyds Banking Group in a new bid that could result in a cash payout to the government.
Taking advantage of the regulatory delays facing the Co-op bid for what are known as the Verde branches, Hoffman said his new bank would not pay “short-term incentive” bonuses to senior managers and would take a “service-orientated approach”.
The proposal submitted by Hoffman’s NBNK bid vehicle claims to offer a new way to ensure that Lloyds shareholders are able to reap the rewards of the bid directly by offering them cash or shares in the new banking venture. NBNK said it had found a way to offer shareholders cash and shares, or just shares, in the standalone bank, which it said would be the “only major, listed organisation solely dedicated to retail and SME banking”. The largest shareholder is the government, with a stake of just under 40%.
NBNK did not publish a value for its offer, although it is thought to be in the region of £1.7bn – just below the £2bn book value of the branches which Lloyds must sell to meet EU requirements on state aid.
Lloyds needs to divest the branches by November 2013 to meet the terms set out by Europe for the £20bn of taxpayer funds pumped into the bank and has said it is working on a possible stock market flotation if the Co-op offer falls through.
The Co-op bid talks are already behind deadline, failing to reach a “heads of agreement” by the end of the first quarter as promised. Last month, Peter Marks, the head of the Co-op, admitted there were “some very material regulatory issues” facing his offer that, if successful, would create a bank with a network of almost 1,000 branches.
Last month Marks said that a decision on whether to proceed would be taken in “weeks rather than months” and admitted: “I can’t predict whether we’ll get to the end on this.” Co-op declined to elaborate on Thursday while Lloyds said it was “still solely talking” to the Co-op as it “acknowledged” receipt of the NBNK letter.
NBNK, which is also promising not to make any redundancies or close any of the 632 branches, said it had been “in close contact” with the Financial Services Authority even though its first offer was rebutted by Lloyds last year when it selected Co-op as preferred bidder.
Hoffman, who controversially quit nationalised Northern Rock to join NBNK, said: “Our objective is to create a new, large challenger bank and brand that will shake-up UK high street banking, operating in the interests of customers. I believe we have tabled a compelling proposition that will invigorate competition, provide jobs and is the right solution for taxpayers.”
Chairman Lord Levene, the former boss of the Lloyd’s of London insurer, reckoned that the offer had “none of the downsides to Lloyds of a standalone IPO” although NBNK will need to tap its own shareholders to find the cash it if is to succeed. It has already suffered a number of setbacks – failing to buy Northern Rock, which went to Virgin Money, and failing to have its first offer for Verde approved.
However, the Independent Commission on Banking had made clear that it did not believe that the market share of the all-important current account market provided by the Verde sell-off – 4.5% – was large enough to make a strong challenger bank to take on the existing big four. Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC and Barclays between them have a share of 74%. A sale to the Co-op, however, would give the enlarged bank 7% of the market.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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Pirc takes on banks over ‘true and fair’ reporting
Posted by: | CommentsAmid the row brewing over the £17m pay packet for Barclays boss Bob Diamond – and the decision by the bank to pay his £5.7m tax bill – the advisory body Pirc is also raising another issue of concern at the bank: its annual report and its auditors.
Pirc is advising its clients to vote against the annual report, its auditors (PricewaterhouseCoopers) and non-executive director Sir Michael Rake (who chairs the audit committee) because it believes that accounting rules allow Barclays to overstate the amount of profit it generates. And Pirc is not just singling out Barclays as it intends to tell its clients to vote against the auditors of HSBC and bailed out Royal Bank of Scotland, again because of its concern over the accounting rules.
It is an attempt by Pirc to highlight what it regards as a fundamental problem with accounting rules – known as IFRS – which Pirc argues allows banks not to provide a “true and fair view” of their position as required by the Companies Act but instead take a “backward look” on their assets and liabilities.
As complex as this debate is – and IFRS is an internationally adopted standard – Pirc has calculated that the IFRS methodology allows RBS to overstate its profits and capital by £16.8bn, Barclays by £6.7bn and HSBC by $16bn (£10bn).
These calculations are based on Pirc’s view that IFRS allows banks to overvalue loans compared with a realistic assessment of what they might get back, leave out some bonus payments and also allows them to benefit from changes in the prices of their own debt.
This debate over accounting standards has rumbled on since the 2008 banking crisis – the banks clearly believe they are complying with the rules – but one that Pirc, at least, is not going to allow to go away.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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Shetland Islands to host ‘world’s most productive’ windfarm
Posted by: | CommentsA major windfarm on Shetland, which could be the most productive in the world, has been approved by ministers despite a bitterly fought campaign against the scheme by local residents.
The Viking windfarm will straddle the hills and moors of Shetland’s main island, where the onshore wind speeds are frequently the highest in Europe, and lead to earnings of £30m a year for islanders and Shetland’s wealthy charitable trust.
The project has been cut in size by Fergus Ewing, the Scottish energy minister, from 127 turbines to 103, to protect safety for Scatsta airport near Sullom Voe oil terminal.
The joint venture between energy giant SSE and Viking Energy Ltd, owned by the trust, will have 370MW capacity and is expected to generate enough energy for 175,000 homes – sixteen times the number of homes on Shetland.
One small turbine on a hill north of Lerwick, called Betsy, already holds a world record for its efficiency, reaching 59% of its potential output, thanks to the consistently powerful winds which sweep Shetland.
The developers said that meant the Viking scheme had the potential to be the most productive in the world. Councillor Bill Manson, chairman of Viking Energy Partnership, said: “This is good news for Shetland, good news for Scotland and good news for the fight against climate change.”
The Viking scheme has been vigorously opposed by many Shetland residents, who have complained about its dominant position through the centre of the main island, and its impact on the scenery and recreation value of the moors and hills.
The project received 2,772 objections, more than 10% of Shetland’s 22,000 total population, but was supported by 1,115 people. Protestors at Sustainable Shetland said any scheme should be much smaller and designed to supply local energy needs.
Conservationists at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, which had originally supported the project, were also highly critical. The scheme will damage peat and blanket bog, and nesting grounds for rare birds.
Reacting to its approval on Wednesday, the RSPB said the scheme still damaged crucial breeding sites for rare birds such as red-throated divers and whimbrel, since 90% of the UK’s whimbrel population nest on Shetland.
Aedán Smith, RSPB Scotland’s head of planning, said it was “absolutely critical” that the developers made substantial efforts to protect the affected environment.
“The developers and Scottish ministers should have gone much further to try and ensure that any negative consequences would be minimised, and it is disappointing that they have decided to risk the Shetland environment, as well as birds like whimbrel, with such a large scale proposal in their heartland.”
It was originally due to have up to 200 turbines, creating what was then Scotland’s largest onshore windfarm and helping Shetland become a major net exporter of renewable energy, and in turn kickstarting a much larger marine energy industry.
The scheme, which is expected to cost about £566m and create 140 jobs during construction, is due to become operational in 2017. An expensive new subsea interconnector cable between Shetland and north-east Scotland, to help feed Viking’s electricity to the national grid, has already been approved but has not yet been laid.
Viking Energy is still waiting for the energy regulator Ofgem to cut its extremely high transmission charges, which are based on the distance between the power source and south-east England, to improve the project’s profitability.
Currently, the island’s electricity is generated by a highly inefficient diesel-fuelled combined heat and power plant on the outskirts of Lerwick, which uses fuel shipped in by tankers. Quality of life on Shetland has been significantly improved by an annual levy on every barrel of oil landed at Sullom Voe, paid into the Shetland charitable trust.
Ewing said the project would bring “enormous benefits” to the islanders, by creating further green energy jobs in future and helping develop community energy schemes. He said a 12,500-acre rehabilitation project paid for by the Viking scheme would help protect vulnerable peatlands.
“Last week, figures showed Scotland exceeded our ambitious renewable electricity targets for 2011, with more than a third of our electricity demand coming from renewables,” Ewing said.
“Developments like Viking will help us meet our 2020 target, and will make a huge contribution to our target of 500MW from community and locally owned renewable energy by 2020, while benefiting communities, cutting emissions, and helping to keep energy bills lower.”
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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Who should be the next president of the World Bank?
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James Murdoch to step down as BSkyB chairman – live
Posted by: | CommentsOur colleague on the business desk, Rupert Neate, has this background on recent BSkyB shareholder feelings on the now-departed chairman:
In November 44% of BSkyB’s independent shareholders voted against or abstained from voting for James Murdoch’s re-election to the board. Big institutional shareholders that voted against his reappointment included Legal and General Investment Management, the broadcaster’s third biggest shareholder, Standard Life and JP Morgan. News Corp controls 37% of voting shares in Sky so Murdoch easily achieved enough votes to continue his chairmanship.
At the meeting Guy Jubb, head of governance at Standard Life Investments, took the unusual of standing up to tell the audience why he had voted against Murdoch. “We pointed out [to the board] that our misgivings had been heightened by the revelations of stewardship shortcomings at the News of the World, a title for which Mr Murdoch bore a measure of responsibility.” Jubb added that Standard Life was “deeply disappointed” that not a single director shared their concerns.
News of Murdoch’s exit has had little effect on BSkyB’s shares down just 0.22% to 679.5p, valuing the company at £11.6bn.
Here’s a bit of information about Nick Ferguson, the deputy chairman of BSkyB, who has been tipped up to take over at the top of the broadcaster. “He eats nails for breakfast,” a source told the Guardian.
At one point, Ferguson queried why he – who made his money in private equity – paid less tax (proportionately) than the cleaners.
You can read more on this here.
The Guardian’s head of media, Dan Sabbagh, has written this report on Murdoch’s resignation:
James Murdoch will step down as chairman of BSkyB shortly, after the man who had been thought of as Rupert Murdoch’s corporate heir concluded it was no longer worth hanging on and risking a critical verdict from MPs inquiring into phone hacking.
The 39-year-old, who has been chief executive and then chairman since 2003, is understood to have made up his mind to resign the post, although BSkyB has not yet made a formal announcement to the stock exchange. By stepping down, it will mean that no Murdoch occupies a top position at the satellite broadcaster for the first time in years.
You can read the full story here.
Andrew Neil, former editor of the Sunday Times, has tweeted:
Had already stepped down from Big Pharma and Sotheby boards. As well as News Group. BSkyB resignation on cards. Hacking had done him damage
— Andrew Neil(@afneil) April 3, 2012
BSkyB board members were only called to attend an unscheduled board meeting earlier today, reports Sky News City editor Mark Kleinman, who broke the news of Murdoch’s resignation.
He believes that the City will welcome Murdoch’s resignation and that will be reflected in a boost to BSkyB’s share price.
Jack Irvine, the former News International executive, has described Murdoch’s resignation at BSkyB chairman as a “tragedy” but that it was inevitable.
In an interview with Sky News, Irvine said: “It’s a very wise move … it should maybe have happened a bit sooner and the appointment made is a superb one.”
Irvine said that TV executives have to be “seen as cleaner than clean”, and adds: “It’s the right thing to do. There’s no choice to do it.”
He praised Murdoch’s work as chairman of BSkyB and said it is a “tragedy” that his tenure has ended like this. He does not see the point of Murdoch remaining on the board of BSkyB.
Irvine says that Rupert Murdoch “trusted people in London that he shouldn’t have trusted” and “the ship lost direction”, referring to News International.
James Murdoch’s resignation comes at a crucial time for the heir apparent’s media legacy in the UK.
It comes days ahead of a key report on phone hacking from the Commons culture, media and sport select committee, which twice questioned the younger Murdoch about what he knew about alleged impropriety at News International.
Murdoch is also feeling the heat from the media regulator Ofcom, which recently announced it was stepping up its investigation into whether he is a “fit and proper” person to sit on the board of BSkyB.
Murdoch will reportedly remain on the board of BSkyB, although he has stepped down as executive chairman.
John Prescott has just tweeted:
“@afneil: Sky News reporting James Murdoch to step down from BSkyB chairmanship.” < It’s The Son Wot Lost It! #gotcha
— John Prescott (@johnprescott) April 3, 2012
Here is a quick timeline of the recent developments in James Murdoch’s role in the UK:
• Today: Revealed that Murdoch is to step down as chairman of BSkyB.
• 17 March: Murdoch resigns his directorship at auction house Sotheby’s.
• 14 March: Murdoch writes to MPs on Commons media select committee expressing “deep regret” over News of the World phone hacking.
• 29 February: Murdoch resigns as chairman of News International, publisher of the Sun and formerly News of the World.
• 27 January: Murdoch quits GlaxoSmithKline board.
The Guardian’s media commentator Roy Greenslade has given his reaction to the news of Murdoch’s resignation in an interview with Sky News.
He says it was somewhat “inevitable” and adds: “I don’t think it’s a massive surprise even though the timing may be surprising. It comes ahead of giving evidence to Leveson and more significantly of the media select committee phone hacking report.”
Greenslade adds that this raises questions over Murdoch’s position on the News Corp board.
The Guardian has confirmed that Murdoch is to step down from his role as chairman of BSkyB after a board meeting later on Tuesday. Sky News City reporter Mark Kleinman broke the news shortly before 1pm.
James Murdoch is to step down as chairman of BSkyB.
The younger son of Rupert Murdoch has faced increasing pressure in the UK over what he knew about alleged phone hacking at former News of the World publisher News International.
James was a non-executive chairman of the pay-TV giant BSkyB, of which News Corporation owns a 39.1% stake.
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Laura Ashley to open ‘brand showcase’ hotel
Posted by: | CommentsBoutique hotels are usually the preserve of luxury designer labels such as Armani and Bulgari where their monied clientele can eat, sleep and shop the brand. That is about to change as Laura Ashley, the quintessentially English company famous for its floral prints, prepares to enter the fray.
The company has bought a hotel in Hertfordshire for £5.8m which it hopes will become a Mecca for Laura Ashley fans with all 49 rooms kitted out with its matching beds, sofa, wallpaper and curtains. Its chief operating officer Seán Anglim said the hotel would become a “brand showcase” for its products and interior design service when it opens later this year.
The hotel, which has 49 rooms, is currently trading under another, undisclosed, name. “We are not disclosing how much we will spend on the refurbishment but we are going to turn it into something special,” said Anglim, who added that over the years the 60-year-old company had been approached by hoteliers who wanted to license the brand. “The concept of a Laura Ashley hotel has not come out of the blue.”
The hotel plans were revealed as the retailer reported profits of £18.8m on sales of £285.9m in the year to 28 January. The brand’s popularity has waxed and waned over the decades but it is once again back in vogue with like-for-like sales up nearly 11% in the last eight weeks, defying the tough high street conditions faced by retailers selling big ticket products like furniture. Laura Ashley shares were up 5.1% at 22.9p in London by lunchtime.
The brand’s roots date back to 1953 when Laura and Bernard Ashley started printing fabric on their kitchen table in London. The designer had been inspired by a Women’s Institute exhibition at the Victoria and Albert Museum on traditional handicrafts and wanted to make her own patchwork quilts but couldn’t find fabrics she liked. After swotting up on fabric printing in libraries the couple invested £10 in wood for a screen, dyes and some linen and printed their own.
They owe their big break to Audrey Hepburn, who started a trend for wearing headscarves in the film Roman Holiday. The Ashleys realised they could produce the small scarves themselves, and within a short space of time, were receiving large orders from shops including John Lewis and Heal’s.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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House prices down in March … despite actually rising
Posted by: | CommentsThe headlines say house prices, based on the Nationwide data, are showing their “biggest monthly fall in two years” (Reuters) and suffering a “stamp duty hangover” (Daily Mail). The media-savvy economists are calling the 1% dip in March “quite a shock” (Howard Archer) and predict further plunges. Yet the truth is that house prices in Britain rose in March.
In February the price of a typical home was £162,712, but over March it jumped to £163,327 – a rise of £615. Where do I get these figures that so contradict the Nationwide data? From none other than Nationwide itself. Welcome to the mysterious world of “seasonal adjustment”.
It beggars belief to be told that after paying £615 more for an item that actually you are paying less, but then that’s economics for you.
Nationwide does not deny that house prices jumped in March. Its economists say they anticipated the rise, but because it wasn’t as big as they thought it would be they’ve put it down as a price fall. I’m not making this up, by the way.
It seems that spring and summer always see more activity in the property market than autumn and winter. Families prefer to buy now so they can get everything in place for the start of the school year in September. So transaction activity rises, as do prices.
The house price economists like to strip this out of the data. “If you look at the unadjusted figures they will show a rise. But as economists we want to know whether this was driven by predictable seasonal elements or not,” says Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner.
We can blame the US Census Bureau for this. Nationwide’s economics department (like most other economists) use its X12 system to adjust its data. X12 analyses any series of data to identify seasonal elements, then filters them out.
Gardner accepts, though, that house purchasers might not quite see it this way. If they are having to stump up a higher deposit or find a bigger mortgage this month, they will be understandably puzzled that the economists are saying prices are falling.
“Seasonally adjusted prices are more than misleading, they are rubbish,” says Ray Boulger, mortgage expert at John Charcol. “I always ignore what Nationwide and Halifax claim is the monthly change in house prices and look at the real figures, which in Nationwide’s case was a rise of 0.4% in March.
“The one positive thing I will say about Nationwide is that it is much more up front than other index providers in the press release about the fact that the figures commented upon are seasonally adjusted.”
It’s not just house prices that are seasonally adjusted – so are the Bank of England’s mortgage lending figures, which results in “massive adjustments” in December and January. Only the Council of Mortgage Lenders doesn’t gerrymander the figures, Boulger says.
Let’s say I’ve just bought a home in Britain, paying the average £163,327. My 90% mortgage will be £146,994 compared to £146,440 if I’d bought the month before. Perhaps I should pop into a Nationwide branch and demand that £554 is wiped off my mortgage for “seasonal adjustment” reasons. But I think they might just tell me to bog off.
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