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London mayor and local election results – live coverage
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Labour has also won in Swansea, Steven Morris reports.
Nick Clegg has said he is “really sad that so many” of his Liberal Democrat councillors have lost their seats.
The government is reducing immigration, is changing the law on the EU to institute referendums where there is a major transfer of power to Europe, Hague says – pointing out to rightwingers that the Tories are still pursuing some of their pet projects.
Should the Tories turn right or head towards the centre?
Neither, says Hague. We carry on turning around this country’s economy and “repairing the damage from the last government”, plus reforming welfare and education.
Hague says the election results are not about gay marriage or Lords reform.
Of course the Tories would do things differently if they were governing alone, he says – but they aren’t. “It’s a coalition government and I think the country understands that.”
“These are not phenomenally good results for the Labour party”, says Hague – they can’t even get 40% of the vote.
Hague says what Labour wants is for the government to spend more and borrow more and that is what got us into this mess in the first place.
William Hague says the weather had no influence and he is not blaming anything on the rain.
Asked about the low turnout (estimated at 32%), Harman says those not voting were also sending that negative message to the government.
She says there is a sense of “can anybody really deal with this?” – referring to the economy.
She also said the weather dampened turnout – “not drizzle, but driving rain, with the leaflets almost dematerialising in your hands”.
Harman says she is “not crowing” about the results.
William Hague, the foreign secretary, and Harriet Harman, Labour’s deputy leader, are being interviewed on BBC Radio 4′s Today programme.
Harman says these are very encouraging results, and Labour won councils it wasn’t expecting to win, and councils where the party had lost MPs in 2010.
The message is that the government has to change course on the economy, and “it still appears to be not listening”.
William Hague has hinted that the Tories cannot do everything they would like to in government because they are in coalition with the Lib Dems, perhaps responding to Tory voices calling for a swing to the right.
Of course the Conservatives can’t do everything that we would like to do in government because we are in coalition within the Liberal Democrats. Of course it is what we will be fighting for in the next general election in 2015.
Tory backbencher Gary Streeter has added his voice to calls for a swing to the right in response to the Conservatives’ council losses. He said Tory supporters are “gagging” for more traditional rightwing policies in areas such as law and order.
If the tail has been wagging the dog a little bit too much, we have got to be a little more small “c” and big “C” conservative on crime, law and order, some of our traditional policies. That’s what our supporters are waiting, indeed gagging, to see.
William Hague, the foreign secretary, has attempted to play down the Tory losses on BBC1′s Breakfast.
These results – while it is never a good feeling to lose councillors – are well within the normal range of mid-term results for governments and I think not so good for the opposition who are not getting 40% of the vote. You wouldn’t look at this and say Labour was on track to win a general election at all.
As Andrew Sparrow reported last night, the BBC has calculated that if people had voted in a general election in the way that they voted in the local elections, Labour would now be in power. The Commons would look like this:
Labour: 368 MPs
Conservatives: 218 MPs
Lib Dems: 39 MPs
That would mean a Labour government with a majority of 86.
Hague also appears to have given a bit of a hostage to fortune. We still don’t know the actual voting figures from yesterday. It could easily transpire that Labour got 40% of the vote.
Bradford has voted against having an elected mayor. The vote was 44.87% for and 55.13% against.
Earlier defence minister Gerald Howarth pinned some of the blame for the Tories’ poor performance on support for policies such as gay marriage and Bernard Jenkin, a backbencher, said David Cameron should resist Lib Dem obsessions like Lords reform.
Tim Farron (left), the Lib Dem president, has responded, saying swinging to the right would be a “bonkers” strategy for the Tories. Farron said:
It was almost amazing that the Tories managed to not win the 2010 general election but the thought that they would somehow build themselves up to a majority by lurching to the right to try and bring back people they think they’ve lost to Ukip – in so far as anyone in the Tory party should take political and strategic advice from me, can I just advise them that would be bonkers.
The thought that people who are struggling, worried for their jobs, concerned about the prices of things going up and generally feeling the pinch … have their votes swayed by Lords reform is just madness.
He then defended the planned democratisation of the upper house, saying:
All three parties went into the last election saying we should reform and we were 100 years overdue for doing that. It should be a straightforward consensual job.
Back to George Galloway for a second. You can always rely on him for a good quote. Here he is on Respect’s victories in Bradford:
We took the head off the rotten fish that is the Bradford city council. We defeated a council leader who sat there, apparently impregnable and utterly complacent, for a decade and a half or more.
He said Respect offered voters a “viable alternative to the Tweedledee, Tweedledum, Tweedledee-and-a-half politics that the three mainstream leaderships are offering them”.
Labour has gained control of Caerphilly council in South Wales in a landslide election victory, and has also captured Newport. The latest figures show Labour will be in outright control of six of Wales’s 22 councils – two more than its total four years ago. Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones said: “We have reconnected with people and our community campaigning has resonated with voters right across Wales.”
My colleague Helen Pidd has just come back from the Respect after-party in Bradford, where George Galloway was waiting, arms outstretched, to welcome his party’s five new councillors into the world of municipal politics.
Horns were blaring outside the Respect HQ in Grattan Road to herald the city’s newly elected politicians. One car was playing the Bradford Spring rap, an ode to Galloway and his disciples sung in a broad West Yorkshire accent (“There is this guy who came into town, walked into Bradford, took a look around, realised we were sinking in a hole – Odeon, Westfield … “).
Around 50 supporters crammed into the back room of Chambers solicitors, which has been the Respect temporary nerve centre since Galloway decided to contest the Bradford West byelection in March. He then gave a speech christening the councillors the “Magnificent Five”, saying: “In five weeks we have won five seats. Wait till we’ve been here for 52 weeks.”
Never a man to underplay an achievement, Galloway said: “The story of the night is Respect in Bradford. Because Labour in the country did really well. And Labour in Bradford, where we were not standing, did really well. Where we were standing, they did catastrophically badly. The lesson there is that if we were standing everywhere, we would give them a run for their money. And the result would be that they would be forced to become more like us.”
Steven Morris emails to tell me that BBC Radio Wales is reporting definitively that Labour has taken control of Cardiff from a Lib Dem-Plaid Cymru adminstration.
The Lib Dems have sent out a briefing note. They say that “in MPs’ seats, we are doing well … Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Eastleigh, Southport, Cheadle and Colchester”. In northern councils, “there simply aren’t any Conservatives. If you want to give the Government a kicking, we’re the only ones around to kick.”
They add: “We’re taking seats from the Tories: Brentwood, Southport, Cheadle and Colchester.”
But to be honest good news is a bit thin on the ground for them.
Mark Romsbottom, the leader of the Lib Dem group on Manchester council, gave this rather stilted statement: “I’m still committed to the Liberal Democratic party and I’m certainly not angry with Nick Clegg or the national party. I’ll make sure I’ll keep campaigning for the Lib Dems.”
He added: “I think the anger has definitely dimmed down in the last two years, people are now prepared to talk and listen to us whereas last year was very, very tough there was a lot of anger on the doorstep.”
The Lib Dems lost all the seats they fought in Manchester. All of them went to Labour.
Of Ed Miliband’s party, the Lib Dems concede:
They have indeed made great gains tonight, but it isn’t a whole-hearted, convincing win. They are losing a few seats to fringe parties such as Respect, this is nothing out of the ordinary for a midterm opposition party, and there are strong doubts over whether Labour can do well in their London and Scottish heartlands.
It was expected that the coalition would attempt to obscure large Labour council gains across the board by emphasising their probable loss in the London mayoral contest and possible loss of control of Glasgow council.
The Lib Dems also play down Labour gains by saying that the Daily Mirror said yesterday Labour might win 1,000 seats.
“David Miliband’s party could gain more than 700 seats, while the Tories look set to lose a third of their councillors,” reports the Daily Mail. Technically correct. (Thanks to Ruth Barnett.)
Jenny Jones, the Green candidate for London mayor, has just posted two rather forlorn tweets. She asked her supporters to give their second-preference votes to Ken Livingstone, the Labour candidate, who looks likely to lose to Tory Boris Johnson. Jones tweeted:
If Boris has won, my next four years will be much less interesting & very frustrating at so much turning back of the environmental agenda.
— Jenny Jones (@GreenJennyJones) May 4, 2012
If Ken has won, my next four years will be exhausting, challenging & v exciting. Plus a bright future for walking & #cycling in London.
— Jenny Jones (@GreenJennyJones) May 4, 2012
Sorry to be self obsessed on an issue that will affect 7.5m Londoners, but all politics is personal in some way. So, did Labour do it?
— Jenny Jones (@GreenJennyJones) May 4, 2012
John Prescott has got wind of the fact the Lib Dems’ number of councillors has fallen to a historic low.
The Lib Dems have less than 3000 councillors for the first time ever. Welcome to #ArmaCleggon
— John Prescott (@johnprescott) May 4, 2012
I’m not sure if #ArmaCleggon is going to catch on as a description of tonight’s results, but Prescott knows a lot more about Twitter than me …
The BBC is reporting that the number of Liberal Democrat councillors has fallen below 3,000 for the first time since the party was formed in 1988.
Good morning and welcome to today’s live coverage of the local election results in England, Wales and Scotland and the London mayoral contest. Many thanks to Andrew Sparrow, who has been covering events live overnight.
Here’s an early morning summary.
• Labour has soundly beaten the Conservatives in the local elections in a result that has been welcomed by the opposition as evidence that it is mounting a strong fightback.Many of the results are not yet in, but the BBC say the results are equivalent to Labour having 39% of the national vote, with the Conservatives on 31% and the Lib Dems on 16%. A Labour source said these were “strong results” for the party, and their best in local elections since 1997. In a general election, this would give Labour a large majority. Labour’s performance was good rather than brilliant, but the party has taken heart from the fact that it is winning in some of the marginal constituencies in the Midlands and the south of England that it needs to win if it wants to form a government in 2015. Here’s a full list of the English results that are in.
• Tory MPs, including a minister, have openly urged David Cameron to adopt more traditional Conservative policies in response to his party’s drubbing at the polls. Gerald Howarth, a defence minister, said that Cameron should accept that Tory voters do not approve of gay marriage. Bernard Jenkin, a backbencher, said Cameron should resist Lib Dem obsessions like Lords reform. And Gary Streeter, another backbencher, said the party had to restore its reputation for competence.
The interesting thing for me was that, doing a lot of visits on the doorstep, that people were unhappy, obviously about the last two months of our government, and many of them said we can accept many things from the Conservative party, but we expect them to be competent. And that was one of the messages coming across … We have to regain our sure-footedness if we are going to recapture lost trust and confidence.
These are the opening shots in a blame game that it likely to continue over the coming days.
• Cameron’s plan to develop a network of high-profile, directly-elected mayors outside London has suffered a severe setback. Manchester, Nottingham and Coventry have all voted against having a mayor. Birmingham, which was expected to vote yes, also seems set to vote no. Another six cities are also voting, but most of those are also expected to reject the proposal. Other cities have rejected the directly-elected mayor model in the past, but to have so many big cities rejecting the model at one time could kill this as a priority local government reform for many years to come.
• Turnout seems to be 32% – the lowest figure since 2000.
• George Galloway’s Respect party has continued to disrupt the mainstream political establishment by winning five seats on Bradford council, including one from its Labour leader. The Tories are depicting it as a serious blow to Labour (which it is), but it also underlines how vulnerable all the main parties are to insurgent outsiders.
• The Lib Dems have sought to brush aside their losses as an inevitable result of being in government. Ed Davey, the energy secretary, said the Liberals had been waiting 90 years to suffer mid-term blues. As my colleague Patrick Wintour reports, Nick Clegg intends to respond to the results by trying to persuade Lib Dems that the results do not spell inevitable electoral wipeout in 2015.
• Labour has been celebrating particularly good results in Wales. Carwyn Jones, the Labour Welsh first minister, said: “The momentum is clearly with Welsh Labour. We are taking seats from every party across the country – with impressive gains in Wrexham, Caerphilly, Newport and a total Lib Dem wipe out in Merthyr. We have reconnected with people and our community campaigning has resonated with voters right across Wales.” Here are the results from Wales that are in.
• Labour’s Joe Anderson has been elected as Liverpool’s first mayor with almost 60% of the vote. The two other cities electing mayors yesterday, Salford and London, will start their counts this morning. Salford’s result is expected between 3pm and 5pm, and London’s some time between 6pm and midnight. A YouGov poll yesterday showed Boris Johnson, the Tory candidate and current mayor, on 53% to 47% for Ken Livingstone, his Labour rival and predecessor.
• The Conservatives have already lost almost 300 seats. Counting in Scotland has not started yet, but, with results available from 97 councils, here is the state of play.
Councils
Conservatives: 26 – down 11
Labour: 49 – up 21
Lib Dems: 3 – down 1
Councillors
Conservatives: 549 – down 272
Labour: 1,087 – up 456
Lib Dems: 211 – down 128
Plaid Cymru: 32 – down 11
Green: 16 – up 3
BNP: 0 – down 3
Respect: 5 – up 5
Ukip: 7 – up 1
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Syria, Egypt and Middle East unrest – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsEgypt: The ruling military council is committed to handing over power to a civilian administration by 1 July as it promised, the Associated Press reports, citing a senior member of the council.
The announcement came a day after deadly clashes between protesters and assailants left at least 11 dead in Cairo, prompting some politicians to voice fears that the military might use the violence as a pretext to ignore its own deadline to relinquish control of the country.
Maj Gen Mohammed al-Asar also told reporters that the military will ensure the integrity and fairness of presidential elections scheduled for May 23-24.
The military took over after a popular uprising ousted Egypt’s authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. But in over a year in power, it has been accused of badly bungling the transition, killing protesters, hauling more than 10,000 civilians to trial before military tribunals and of scheming to enshrine a political role for itself after handing over power.
“We say it frankly and clearly, the armed forces and their supreme council are committed to the handover of power on June 30,” al-Asar said. “We don’t desire power. The Supreme Council (of the Armed Forces) is not a substitute for legitimacy in Egypt.”
Here’s a summary of the main developments so far today.
Syria
• At least four students have been killed after security services stormed dorms at Aleppo University, activists and opposition groups said. Dozens more were injured and scores arrested, according to the reports. There have numerous clashes at the university and the assault followed the biggest demonstration there since the beginning of the uprising, according to an opposition website.
• The son of the leader of a Syrian opposition party has been killed, the state news agency reported, blaming an armed terrorist group. Ismail Haider, son of Syrian Social Nationalist party (SSNP) leader Ali Haidar was with another party member, who was also killed, when machine guns opened fire on their car on the road between Homs and Masyaf. A SSNP member told al-Akhbar that the party, which calls for democratic change and rejects the militarisation of the uprising, has enemies on both sides.
• The Syrian government imported $167m-worth of air defence systems and missiles and a further $1m of small arms and ammunition in the months before it began the crackdown on opposition activists, a report by the charity Oxfam says.
Egypt
• The military rulers have expressed sorrow for the bloodshed in Abbasiya but said protesters should have demonstrated in Tahrir Square instead. At a press conference on the violence, they also insisted they were committed to handing over power by 30 June.
Tunisia
• The head of Nessma TV, Nabil Karoui, has been fined 2,400 dinars (about $1,500) for broadcasting the award-winning film, Persepolis, after being convicted of a public order offence. Hedi Boughnim, who dubbed the film into Tunisian dialect, was also fined 1,200 dinars (about $750).
Syria: More arrests are being carried out at the campus of Aleppo University – where activists say at least four students were killed earlier today and scores arrested by government forces – according to the Local Coordination Committees opposition group.
Syria: The assault by the security forces at Aleppo University last night followed the largest anti-regime demonstration at the university to date, the opposition website al-Ayyam says.
This video purports to show the demonstration yesterday.
Al-Ayyam says:
The protest drew many students and was the largest protest at Aleppo University to date. Security forces arrived quickly on the scene and assaulted the protesting students forcing them to disperse and fold back.
The main assault [was] overnight. The students started another protest in the university’s housing complex. They launched the protest from their rooms. Witnesses report that three buses carrying security forces and Shabbiha [pro-regime thugs] surrounded and laid siege to the housing complex. The attack started shortly after midnight Thursday and lasted about an hour.
Security forces stormed the complex with five military vehicles while firing from mounted machine guns. The initial assault caused widespread damage and killed two students. Security forces and Shabbiha followed on foot. They searched room by room, breaking in, and firing bursts of gunfire to intimidate the students. More than 50 students were seen being taken away.
Libya: The National Transitional Council yesterday passed a number of laws criminalising the “glorification” of the late Muammar Gaddafi, his regime and his sons, the Tripoli Post reports:
This law and other two laws that aim to protect the nation and the new democratic Libya have been under debate for some time and have been demanded by a large part of the population.
The remnants of pro-Gaddafi elements have exploited the atmosphere of forgiveness and the spirit of reconciliation expressed by the leaders of the uprising and has been working undercover to undermine the state for some time now.
The Tripoli Post quotes a statement read out to reporters by a judicial official:
Praising or glorifying Muammar Gaddfi, his regime, his ideas or his sons … is punishable by a prison sentence …
If those news reports, rumours or propaganda cause any damage to the state the penalty will be life in prison …
In conditions of war, there is a prison sentence for any person who spreads information and rumors which disrupt military preparations for the defense of the country, spread terror or weaken the citizens’ morale.
(Libya is still considered to be in a state of war, apparently.)
A second law stipulates prison sentences for anyone who “attacks the February 17 revolution, denigrates Islam, the authority of the state or its institutions,” the Tripoli Post says, stating that these are laws “governing the transition” – which perhaps means that they are intended to be temporary.
A third new law promulgated yesterday confiscates all property and funds belonging to figures of the previous regime, including Gaddafi’s relatives.
Yemen: Democracy is America’s second choice in Yemen, counter-radicalisation expert Francisco Martin-Rayo argues in an article for Foreign Policy that is highly critical of the Obama administration and its apparent obsession with al-Qaida:
Though Yemen’s internal politics have changed dramatically since January 2011, US strategy there has remained single-mindedly focused on eradicating AQAP [al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula]. Democracy promotion, and the hopes of millions of Yemenis who supported the revolution, do not appear to be among the Obama administration’s concerns in the country.
Nowhere was this more clear than in a recent press conference in Sana’a, where Jeffrey Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, reinforced US support for the existing transition plan, which doesn’t call for elections until February 2014 and which has widely left President Saleh’s patronage network intact. (His son, Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, still controls the Republican Guard and Special Forces – a fact that inspires considerable disquiet among members of the pro-democracy opposition.)
Since the beginning of the demonstrations against President Saleh’s regime, the US has signally failed to support the pro-democracy youth movement, a group that consists largely of the young and dissatisfied men that AQAP recruits so assiduously …
In April 2011, the youth movement openly petitioned the US for support, only to be ignored. The US instead supported the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) negotiations with the old regime, squashing any hopes of an authentic democratic revolution and antagonising Washington’s most likely local allies.
Tunisia: It appears that Nabil Karoui, the head of Nessma TV, has been convicted of a public order or “morality” offence rather than blasphemy in the Persepolis trial. This may explain why he has been fined rather than jailed.
According to Le Nouvel Observateur (in French), the court judgment said he was punished for “broadcasting to the public a film that disturbed public order and was contrary to good morals”.
Tunisia Live says Hedi Boughnim, who dubbed the award-winning film into Tunisian dialect, was also fined 1,200 dinars (about $750).
Syria: The son of the leader of the opposition Syrian Social Nationalist party (SSNP) was assassinated on Wednesday by an armed terrorist group, the state news agency reports.
Ismail Haidar, son of Ali Haidar, was killed alongside another SSNP member, Fadi Atawneh, by machine gun fire on the road between Homs and Masyaf, says Sana.
The SSNP, founded by Lebanese academic Antun Saadeh in the 1930s, is “an opposition party calling for democratic change in Syria, but adamantly rejected foreign intervention and the militarisation of the uprising,” says al-Akhbar.
It quotes an anonymous high-ranking member of the SSNP based in the US as saying:
The SSNP has taken a position that is neither to the complete liking of the regime nor to the complete liking of many elements in the opposition, but which it feels represents the interest of Syria, which should be above all other interests.
Unfortunately, certain elements on the ground believe that unless you are 100% with them, then you are 100% against them, and as a result two young members of the SSNP have paid with their lives for the party’s position.
Mohammad Zahweh, from the SSNP, told Al-Akhbar.
It happened yesterday evening. There were gunmen waiting [on the street] and they began firing on the car … We have received threats, particularly against the president [of] the party, but we couldn’t specify the source of those threats. I can’t really say for sure [who was responsible]. The investigation is underway [and] we don’t want to guess who was behind it, it could’ve been a criminal act.
Sana quotes SSNP leader Ali Haidar as saying:
I don’t need condolences over the deaths of my son and his comrade, because their blood is no more precious than the blood of any Syrian that was martyred before or will be martyred in the coming days … Those who carry guns will not terrorise us and will not silence us nor stop is from working day and night to establish peace and security in Syria …Ismael and his comrade are the victims of terrorism that is afflicting Syria… they, like the rest of the martyrs, fell so that Syria may live, for Syria’s interest is above all interests.
Tunisia: Reports are coming in that the head of Nessma TV has been fined 2,400 dinars (about $1,500) for broadcasting the film, Persepolis, which religious elements complained was blasphemous. More details shortly.
Bahrain: The kingdom’s human rights record will come under scrutiny at the UN Human Rights Council later this month, as part of the “periodic review” system.
As part of that process, the kingdom has submitted a report detaiing its achievements since the last review in 2008. As usual with these reports, it gives a fairly glowing picture. It also refers to the king as “beloved” three times (pages 8, 20 and 25) and “dearly beloved” once (page 7).
A second report, by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, is less congratulatory. It complains about “a deterioration in the human rights situation” and notes “with concern” allegations of torture, including the torture of children.
Syria: In another video from Aleppo University, where activists say at least four students were killed (see 9.40am), the sound of intense gunfire can be heard. It is difficult to make out the different figures running outside as the video is filmed from a room high off the ground. A voiceover at the end says “Assad mukhabarat [secret police].”
Another video purports to show students outside the dormitories amid their belongings, strewn on the ground.
Tunisia: Two police officers who killed a protester last year have been jailed for 20 years each – the first punishment meted out to security officials over their crackdown on the revolution that ousted President Ben Ali, Reuters reports.
The officers were also fined 80,000 dinars ($60,000) each for their role in the death of Salim al-Hadhary, a source said. The money will go to the victim’s family.
Syria: Syrian security forces stormed student dorms at Aleppo University in the north-west of the country following anti-government protests there, killing at least four students and wounding several others with teargas and live ammunition, activists and opposition groups said today. From AP .
Around 1,500 students had been protesting in student quarters adjacent to Aleppo University’s main campus late Wednesday when security forces and pro-regime gunmen swept into their residences, firing tear gas at first, then live ammunition to disperse them.
Student activist Thaer al-Ahmed said panic and chaos ensued as students tried to flee. “Some students ran to their rooms to take cover but they were followed to their rooms, beaten up and arrested,” he said.
He said raids and intermittent gunfire continued until early Thursday morning. Dozens of people were wounded, some critically, and around 50 students were arrested, he said.The Local Coordination Committees activist group confirmed the raid and said five students were killed and some 200 arrested while the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said four students were killed. “Regime forces demanded through loudspeakers that the dorms be evacuated, then began detaining the students,” the LCC said in a statement.
The LCC says demonstrations are taking place now, both elsewhere on the campus and outside the campus, in solidarity with the students who were attacked.
A video posted online purports to show a student who was shot.
This video shows purports to show a fire still blazing at the university dorms after the attacks. http://youtu.be/uulRMOFytWc
A picture of one of those said to have been killed, named as Majed Abdulhaid, has been posted on Twitter. (warning:graphic)
Syria: Will it end in stalemate or checkmate? The New York Times is intrigued to discover that the president of the World Chess Federation was in Damascus at the weekend and had three hours of talks with President Assad .
It says Kirsan Ilyumzhinov – described as “an eccentric Russian millionaire” – was officially visiting Syria to promote the teaching of chess in schools, though the paper notes that he also went to Libya last year in an effort to negotiate a settlement between the Libyan rebels and Colonel Gaddafi:
Although he holds no formal diplomatic position with the Russian government, his repeated visits to Arab countries in turmoil have reinforced the impression that he is serving as an informal envoy, using the chess organization’s business as a fittingly Russian ruse.
Bahrain: To mark World Press Freedom Day, King Hamad has announced “a new era” for Bahrain’s media, the pro-government Gulf Daily News reports. The king is quoted as saying:
There should be no tampering with the right of Bahraini citizens in expressing their opinions, nor any ceilings put on their freedoms or creativity apart from professional consciousness, national and ethical responsibilities and observance of the people’s unity and national interest in compliance with the constitution and the law.
Media freedoms are ushering in a more advanced phase of diversity, independence and respect of opinion and counter-opinion.
The king added that legislation to “boost freedom of opinion and expression in compliance with highest international standards” was on in preparation.
Good morning. Welcome to Middle East Live. During the day we shall be monitoring unrest in Syria, Egypt, Bahrain and other parts of the region, and keeping an eye on the growing problems faced by the Un monitoring operation in Syria.
Syria
• The UN monitoring mission is in trouble – and not just on the ground in Syria, where the monitors are constantly tailed by the authorities. “The UN is making repeated calls to member states seeking personnel as it tries to deploy the full force by the end of May,” Bloomberg reports.
It adds that the deployment is hindered by the acknowledgment of US and other security council diplomats that the mission is likely to fail and that its purpose is to convince Russia and China that stronger measures, which they previously blocked, are needed to force President Bashar al-Assad to stop killing his opponents and civilians.
• In a statement last night, the Avaaz organisation said the Annan plan is “in the gutter”.
Referring to developments in Homs, it said “While the pace of bombardment slowed significantly ever since the UN observers arrived in the city, the Annan plan is not being upheld. Armed opposition groups remain inside the city while the regime’s forces retain a formidable presence.”
• The Syrian government imported $167m-worth of air defence systems and missiles and a further $1m of small arms and ammunition in the months before it began the crackdown on opposition activists, a report by the charity Oxfam says.
Egypt
• The ruling military council (Scaf) says it was not reponsible for the deaths of 11 or more protesters during recent clashes in Cairo and will hold a press conference later today, the Egypt Independent reports.
A statement on Scaf’s Facebook page says: “The armed forces have over the last week endured what it cannot tolerate of insults and attacks from demonstrators in front of the defence ministry.”
Libya
• Shokri Ghanem, Libya’s former oil chief who was found drowned in the river Danube on Sunday, was wanted for questioning in Libya,
Reuters reports. The Libyan authorities had sent a warrant to Interpol about a month ago but were still awaiting a “decisive reply”.
• The National Transitional Council has lifted controversial restrictions on the types of political parties that can take part in next month’s election, the BBC reports.
In April the NTC had announced a ban on parties organised along religious, regional, tribal or ethnic lines, saying that this was a measure to preserve “national unity”. But yesterday it issued a new version of the law which made no mention of the restrictions.
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Eurozone crisis live: Tight security in Barcelona as ECB meets
Posted by: | CommentsA bit more information from the student march in Barcelona via ITN’s Jess Brammar: the event is proceeding pretty calmly, but someone else appears to have thrown a waterbomb at the riot police (somewhat risky).
Riot police getting waterbombed from nearby buildings, but protests so far very peaceful in Barcelona while ECB meets twitter.com/jessbrammar/st…
— Jess Brammar (@jessbrammar) May 3, 2012
No-one really expected the European Central Bank to cut rates today. Despite some pretty rubbish economic data yesterday, the current eurozone inflation rate (2.6% at the last count) doesn’t really allow further monetary easing.
Anders Svendsen, chief analyst at Nordea bank, reckons ECB president Mario Draghi will sound “mildly dovish” at his press conference, which starts at 1.30pm BST (2.30pm CEST), telling Reuters that:
For now, it is still too early for the ECB to change its view, but the risk of an interest rate cut during the summer has clearly increased.
Struggling households, mortgage holders and businesses across the eurozone would probably see a rate cut as an opportunity, rather than a risk.
The European Central Bank has just voted to leave eurozone interest rates unchanged, at 1%.
In Barcelona, the student protest march is now underway. All peaceful so far, it appears
I counted at least 15 full police vans up one street behind this relatively modest, peaceful student march on ECB meet twitter.com/jessbrammar/st…
— Jess Brammar (@jessbrammar) May 3, 2012
Katharine Ainger gets in touch from Barcelona to explain that many people are deliberately not protesting against the European Central Bank today, and are keeping their powder dry for demonstrations on May 12.
She explained this is a “deliberate strategy of indifference as the government has declared war on protest” (a reference to the thousands of police who have flooded the steets of Barcelona today).
A bit more information on the situation in Barcelona — Spanish students are planning to march from the centre of the city to the hotel where the ECB is holding today’s meeting, in protests at Spain’s austerity programme (that’s via ITV’s Jess Brammar).
That’s despite the heavy police presence, including armed officers.
Speaking of elections, the Open Europe thinktank has published a report today looking how a François Hollande victory in the French presidential elections would change the eurocrisis.
They conclude that France is likely to become a “more difficult and assertive EU partner” whoever wins on Sunday. However, Open Europe analyst Vincenzo Scarpetta warned, neither candidate will find it easy to deliver their pledges. Scarpetta added:
The Franco-German axis will continue, but a Hollande victory in particular will mean a more unpredictable relationship and therefore potentially more uncertainty on the markets.
Clearly, under Hollande, Germany will find it far more difficult to push its vision of a eurozone based on strong budget discipline.
Sarkozy has already questioned the role of the European Central Bank during the election campaign. That debate could be even more heated under Hollande, Scarpetta believes.
You can download the full report here (.pfd)
Thanks to those of you who have posted questions for Helena Smith’s Q&A on the Greek elections (I see several familiar names). Still room for more…. (in the Q&A please)
Jess Brammar, producer at ITV News, is in Barcelona and confirms that there is a strong police presence to protect the European Central Bank as it meets today (details at 10.57am):
No, this guy isn’t an anarchist protestor, he’s a plain-clothed policeman. Security heavy at ECB meeting in Barcelona twitter.com/jessbrammar/st…
— Jess Brammar (@jessbrammar) May 3, 2012
Security barriers were being erected yesterday….
…as this photo taken on Wednesday shows.
Here’s a picture of European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and EU commissioner Olli Rehn chatting before their meeting in Barcelona begins.
They don’t look particularly cheerful (and no wonder, with nearly half the eurozone in recession and unemployment hitting a new record high yesterday).
The ECB will announce its decision on monetary policy at 12.45pm BST, or 1.45pm local time. Economists expect no change in interest rates (there’s a handy round-up of predictions here). The press conference 45 minute later should be interesting — Draghi could again urge EU leaders to do more, or repeat his calls for a growth pact (or steer away from politics given Sunday’s elections in France and Greece).
Security is tight in Barcelona today as the European Central Bank’s board of directors hold their regular meeting on monetary policy.
The Spanish authorities appear very concerned that the event could be disrupted. Around 4,500 police officers have been mobilised in the city, with another 2,000 members of the Civil Guard also ready to be deployed.
Such is the concern that Spain has temporarily suspended the Schengen Protocol, the laws which allow free movement within the EU.
That might prevent troublemakers from abroad getting to Barcelona. But last month’s Spanish general strike saw some isolated violence, so it’s possible that there could still be some trouble (unless the heavy police presence deters them).
Coming up this afternoon — our Athens correspondent, Helena Smith, is holding an online Q&A session on the Greek elections.
It starts at 2pm BST. You can get your questions in now — just click here to see the Q&A page. Please post them there, rather than in this live blog.
Sunday’s parliamentary election is a crucial event in the future Greece, and the wider eurozone. As Helena explains:
With Greek citizens increasingly outraged by austerity measures, the vote will decide whether the country continues on the path set for it by its partners in the Eurozone, or chooses instead to back parties who propose leaving the currency.
City analysts and the financial markets aren’t too impressed by this morning’s Spanish bond auction, but neither are they panicking.
Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy points out that Spain’s own commercial banks have been heavy buyers in previous Spanish auctions:
There’s growing uncertainty about the willingness and ability of Spanish and Italian banks to continue to prop up their sovereigns’ bond markets. The more dire things get in the real economy, the more pressure there is on banks to rein in their bond purchases. Yet with foreign investors becoming even more risk averse, it’s the “domestics” that are holding the fort.
Nick Stamenkovic of Ria Capital saids it was a “mixed picture”, and that the higher borrowing costs meant the “ongoing worries about the fiscal position of Spain will persist”.
Lyn Graham-Taylor of Rabobank fears that the results show that the €1trn of cheap loans pumped into the European financial sector by the ECB is no longer helping weak countries such as Spain. He said:
It is difficult to not see Spanish yields continuing an inexorable rise from here given the poor economic figures and the increasing talk of a bank recapitalisation being required.
The euro is down a tad this morning, at $1.3125, but most stock markets are a little higher (FTSE 100 up 25 points at 5783). All calm….
Back in the eurozone crisis, and Spain has seen its borrowing costs jump at an auction of government debt.
In its first test of market confidence since being downgraded by Standard & Poor’s, Spain saw the yield (interest rate) on five year bonds as high as 4.96%, up from 3.696% at the last auction of this type.
The yield on a three-year Spanish bond also spiked, to 4.03% from 2.617%.
Given Spain is back in recession, and the entire eurozone manufacturing sector is shrinking, analysts had expected borrowing costs to jump. The encouraging news for the Madrid government is that it sold a total of €2.5bn of debt, the maximum it was targeting.
The auction also attracted plenty of interest (Spain recieved bids for more than three times as much debt as it actually sold).
The highlights of today’s service sector data (see 9.32am) are that companies are reporting:
• a rise in volumes of incoming new business (see graph above), and
• an increase in staffing levels.
The downside is that service sector firms also reported strong ‘input price’ increases (ie, higher fuel, food, and energy costs).
Growth in Britain’s service sector has fallen faster than expected, according to data just released.
The monthly service sector PMI (a measure of activity across the industry), has fallen to 53.3 in April, from 55.5 in March. That’s the lowest reading since November, and a sharper slowdown (although not a contraction) than analysts had expected.
But Markit, the firm which compiled the data, argues that the underlying picture was healthy. It also questioned whether Britain is really in recession (as the Office for National Statistics reported last week).
Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist, commented:
Companies continued to report rising levels of new business, which helped drive confidence to the highest for over two years. From what we are hearing from panellists, this certainly does not sound like an economy in recession.
That’s a controversial argument, that will renew the dispute over whether the PMI data or the ONS’s larger sample gives the best view of the UK economy.
Here’s some more instant reaction to Mervyn King’s slot on the Today Programme.
Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan is amused by King’s argument that his successor should understand history, given the current quantitative easing programme:
Mervyn King has one thing right: it’s sensible to have a historian at the Bank of England. If I’m chosen, I promise to stop printing money.
— Daniel Hannan (@DanHannanMEP) May 3, 2012
Ed Conway of Sky has taken issue with the governor’s claim that the crisis wasn’t preceded by a boom (which a competent central bank should have controlled):
Chart that disproves Sir Mervyn’s claim there was no sign economy growing unsustainably. Look at M4 build-up pre-crisis twitpic.com/9gnv9e
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) May 3, 2012
And economist Shaun Richards has renewed his call for more democracy at the Bank of England:
Unhappy with Mervyn KIng and his arrogance and complacency? There is a democratic alternative. bit.ly/KTZDBb #gfc2
— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) May 3, 2012
So what did we learn from Mervyn King’s appearance on the Today Programme (see 8.11am onwards)?
• By predicting ‘steady, slow’ growth this year, the governor of the Bank of England is offering support to the Treasury at a time when George Osborne’s economic credibility is under fire. The ‘big picture’ here is that the government’s fiscal plans are based on quite steady growth in the next few years – not a double-dip recession in which tax receipts will probably be lower than planned.
• The Bank is sticking to its position that it should only bear limited responsibility for Britain’s worst financial crisis in decades, and plenty of credit for how it handed the situation since. King may be willing to support future inquiries, but there’s no chance of a thorough investigation of Threadneedle Street’s mistakes anytime soon.
• King’s successor is more likely to have an academic background than a City one. He appeared to suggest that a historian would be well-placed to understand the current situation. So Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs, who implausably appears to be in the running, may not be a 5-1 shot after all.
Mervyn King is reminded that he has been labelled a “tyrant” by a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, David Blanchflower.
King tries to shrug off the jibe with a joke, replying Blanchflower actually called him “a cruel tyrant”. He then denies the charge — pointing out that there are nine people on the MPC, and on three occasions he has found himself in the minority when the committee votes.
What I would ask people to do is look at how the system works.
Would a tyrant allow himself to be outvoted three times?
King touches briefly on the issue of his successor, saying it’s important to have someone who understands the long view, rather than just short term issues. Ben Bernanke, of course, is an expert on the Great Depression of the 1930s.
They then move onto sporting matters — Merv is an Aston Villa fan (doesn’t he have enough problems?), and the interview ends. Reaction to follow!
Sir Mervyn King predicts that the UK economy should come out of recession during 2012, as his interview on the Today Programme continues:
The Bank of England governor tells listeners that he sees signs of recovery in the data he sees from around the country.as he tours the country:
It’s a patchy picture, but we see signs of recovery coming.
[I expect] Steady, slow recovery, later this year.
King pins the blame for Britain’s double-dip on the consequences of higher food and energy costs. Without that, he says, we might have seen some growth in the first three months of 2012 rather than a 0.2% decline in GDP.
The issue of bankers pay is also raised — and King says that he wouldn’t really mind what bankers were paid, if the state wasn’t providing guarantees to banks to prevent their failure.
Why won’t the Bank of England hold a proper inquiry into its conduct before, and during, the financial crisis, asks Evan Davis.
This is a key question — many analysts, and some MPs, believe Threadneedle Street is refusing to allow us to see exactly what went wrong.
Not at all, Sir Mervyn King insists. We’ve already held an inquiry to learn the lessons — back in 2008, indeed.
Davis suggests that we might have a few more lessons to learn now, but King puts up his defences — pointing out that responsibility was split between the Bank of England, the Financial Services Authority and the Treasury.
We are very happy to review the responsibilities we were given, and will continue to do that.
King also claims that the UK has learned many more lessons than other countries. Simon Nixon of the Wall Street Journal argues that other countries think Britain has learned the wrong lessons.
King says UK has learned more lessons than any other country. Many other countries think UK is nuts.
— Simon Nixon (@Simon_Nixon) May 3, 2012
So where were the mistakes made, Governor?
Mervyn King blames the “inbalance in the economy” that means the Bank of England could not protect the UK from the crisis.
Evan Davis presses him on this — what did the Bank actually get wrong? King insists that it was an error of vision:
We were certainly late to the game in understanding the fragiliy of the banking sector, and the consequences when the fragility became clear.
But we were in good company, he adds. In fact, the Bank of England was a relative success by keeping interest rates higher than many other G7 countries.
Mervyn King is on the Today Programe now, discussing his role in the financial crash.
Evan Davis asks whether the Bank of England governor is really taking the blame for the crisis (as some headlines this morning say), or really blaming others?
King argues that the scale of the crisis means that pretty much everyone involved much take some blame. This wasn’t just the fault of a few people or a few banks.
He adds:
I accept our share of responsibility for going along with a banking sector that failed.
Sir Mervyn King is due on the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme in about 10 minutes time to discuss last night’s speech on the financial crisis, and the lessons we can learn.
During the speech, King admitted that the Bank of England should have “shouted from the rooftops” about the looming disaster during the good years, while insisting that the real culprits were the Labour government (for not providing a decent regulatory framework) and the banking sector (for becoming dangerously overleveraged).
King’s argument that the Bank was merely culpable of not shouting louder has been questioned by several commentators this morning.
Our economics editor Larry Elliott writes:
It was the banks and Gordon Brown wot did it. Neutered by New Labour and unable to prevent the City from behaving in an increasingly reckless fashion, the Bank of England could only issue reports and deliver sermons as Britain slid inexorably towards its worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s.
That is the recent past as seen through the eyes of Sir Mervyn King, and there will be many both in the financial sector and at Westminster who will raise more than a sceptical eyebrow at the governor’s conclusions. King, they will argue, is now rewriting history in order to salvage his own reputation.
The Daily Telegraph’s Damian Reece isn’t convinced by King’s argument:
We got a mea culpa of sorts. But mainly we got self-justification from a leader of an organisation that was as culpable as any for the regulatory and policy failings that led to the crash but which has miraculously found itself about to acquire unprecedented regulatory powers over banking, financial services generally and the economy more broadly. This without any independent investigation and report into what went wrong within the Bank of England previously.
And things did go wrong.
Claire Jones of the Financial Times said King’s message was “Mea not really culpa”.
As a history lesson into central banks’ less-than-stellar performance over recent years it’s pretty revisionist.
Do we get an apology on monetary authorities’ failure to prevent the crisis? Or the promise of a review into how the Bank has performed during the turmoil? Not quite. There is some admission of guilt, but more half-truths and excuses.
Alex Brummer of the Daily Mail focuses on King’s warning that the system needs to be strengthened to avoid a repeat of the crisis:
What the governor makes clear is that the Great Recession, and the financial crisis which accompanied it, is far from over.
The threat of an implosion in euroland, where our banks are heavily invested, means that they need every bit of regulatory capital that they can get hold of to withstand the whirlwind.
Today’s agenda has a Spanish feel — with this morning’s debt auction, and the European Central Bank decamping from its usual base in Germany. The latest healthcheck of the UK service sector could also be interesting.
• Spanish debt auction: from 9.30am BST / 10.30am CEST
• UK Services sector PMI for April: 9.30am BST
• Eurozone producer prices index for March: 10am BST / 11am BST
• ECB monetary policy decision: 12.45pm BST / 13.45pm CEST
• ECB press conference: 1.30pm BST / 2.30pm CEST
Good morning, and welcome to today’s rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.
Coming up: the European Central Bank is holding its monthly policy-setting meeting today, in Barcelona instead of Frankfurt. Will it consider new measures to stimulate the European economy? Unlikely, but Mario Draghi will certainly be quizzed about the crisis at this afternoon’s press conference.
Also … Spain will hold an auction of up to €2.5bn (£2bn) of three and five-year bonds. This is its first test of market confidence since being downgraded by S&P last week, and falling into recession on Monday.
We’ll also be tracking the reaction to Sir Mervyn King’s BBC Today Programme Lecture, delivered last night. The Bank of England governor admitted to some failings in the run-up to the crisis, while pinning most of the blame on the banks and the Labour government.
We can also watching political developments in France and Greece ahead of this weekend’s elections.
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London mayor and local elections 2012 – live polling day coverage
Posted by: | CommentsMy colleague Laura Oliver has put together this Storify showing the London mayoral candidates getting out the vote today.
She’ll be updating it throughout the day.
Boris Johnson has put up another short low-budget video exhorting Londoners to vote for him.
He urges Londoners not to “lurch back to the waste and arrogance and divisiveness of the Ken Livingstone years”.
In a message on Facebook, Ukip leader Nigel Farage asks his party’s supporters in London to give their second preference votes to Mr Johnson. In a post which starts off in a deceptively mild tone and then goes straight off the deep end, Farage writes:
Londoners – please vote Ukip first and Boris second to keep the Socialists out of City Hall – that includes all the others. Let’s get Ayatollah Livingstone out of London politics once and for all.
Here are some pictures from polling stations around the country.
Adam1d asks:
Paul, you wrote that “in London, the count for the mayor and the assembly will not start until tomorrow morning”.
Does that mean that we will have to wait till tomorrow to get even partial results??
Or will there be some EXIT POLL results tonight so that we can go to sleep with a rough idea on who’s going to rule the city??
I have just spoken to the Electoral Commission, the BBC, and Sky News and none of them are aware of or are commissioning any exit polls tonight – so I’m afraid you will have to go to sleep with the results still up in the air. We won’t know for sure who is the next London mayor until between 7pm and midnight on Friday evening.
In the comments, some of our readers have been telling us about their experience of voting this morning:
From Sparebulb:
My local council elections in Newport (that south Wales place, you know, near Ireland) is of interest since it is a traditionally strong Labour area but the council is at the moment run under Conservative/Liberal coalition- in a sense the local politics reflects the national (as in UK) politics.
The comparisons are tenuous but are still there. Labour have been relatively low key in their canvassing while the Conservatives have barely bothered in my ward. Driving around I’ve seen more Liberal electioneering – this makes sense since Wales in general has been traditionally quite Liberal although in recent years Plaid have eaten into that support.
While I won’t be waiting up all night it will be interesting to see the results. For Newport I predict a shoe-in for Labour but on a wider scale I’m pondering the results for independents in many parts of Wales, I think there might be a few surprises. Equally one might speculate that Plaid should make gains from the Liberals in predominantly Welsh speaking regions.
From JamesCracknell:
I have already voted “Dems vote early” and all that. Did not take a picture unfortunately but a quite nice polling station in Hammersmith.
Not much to report. Other than in the run up absolutely not a peep from the Lib Dems (my area is usually a contest between Labour and Lib Dems) but Tories eventually popped a leaflet through last night. Not that you could tell it was the Tories until you got to the very minute print. A lot of red and orange in the leaflet too. Anyway no picture of Boris, just all stuff about Ken’s taxes and Alan Sugar quotes.
Tony Blair is keen to “re-engage” with UK politics, according to the Independent. He has apparently hired a spin doctor as part of an attempt to raise his domestic profile. Comment is free is running a poll isking if you would welcome his return to British politics.
Severin Carrell sends more from Scotland. He says that with the stakes so high for both the SNP and Labour in today’s council elections, one key question troubling the parties is turn-out.
There are fears, shared somewhat by the Tories too, that the turn-out could be low. Some predict it may fall even as far as 25%; the SNP and Labour are predicting somewhere around the 33% mark while Tory sources point to 40%. So across Scotland, with Glasgow in particular, the parties are working their core vote very hard: all the party leaders are “getting the vote out”.
Labour is putting particular stress on the high number of postal ballots: there are about 550,000 issued this year, for an electorate of 4m, and postal voters do so early and often. The postal voting rate hit 77% in 2011. Many are pensioners, a key audience for Labour in Glasgow.
The key issue here is that for the first time since 1995, this is the first stand-alone Scottish council vote. There was some chaos in 2007 when voters struggled with two different proportional voting systems for Holyrood and councils; 140,000 ballot papers were spoilt. So council and Holyrood polls were “decoupled” to avoid confusion.
Even for Holyrood in 2011, when voters were faced with arguably the most successful and charismatic Scottish leader in a generation, Alex Salmond, the turn-out was just over 50%.
Even so, the weather today is unlikely to influence matters and John Curtice, the elections expert at Strathclyde university, is extremely dismissive of predictions of a low turn-out.
With council voting levels in England and Wales now back up around 45%, he cannot see any reason why Scotland should be different, particularly given Salmond’s push on independence. “Given the degree to which there has been political excitement in Scotland in the last few months, it’s not obvious me why this [low turn-out] should be,” he said.
If it does drop to 30% or less that will be a failure by Scotland’s parties: “there would have to be questions collectively to the Scottish political classes to persuade voters of the importance of what they’re doing … It would constitute a significant snub to Scottish political classes.”
Curtice is deeply sceptical too about the notion that high postal votes makes any difference to turn-out, or any particular party’s performance: “It’s true that those who vote by post are more likely to vote, however, it’s also true that those who vote by post are also more likely to vote anyway. There’s very little evidence that the growth of postal voting has actually increased overall turn-out.”
A possibly premature inquest is already under way among supporters of city mayors over the lacklustre campaign run by central government and its refusal to set out mayoral powers, reports Patrick Wintour.
Referendums are being held in 10 cities in England, and Birmingham, once seen as a certainty to follow London and back its own mayor, is said to be a much closer contest than expected despite strong yes champions, including business leaders, Labour and Tory parties, and the local media. There has been a patchy no campaign, and Labour has said little at national level.
Those who support the idea of city mayors are upset with a lack of clarity over the role’s powers and a general anti-politics mood.
Senior politicians had their wives at the ready for the traditional polling station photo-opportunities this morning.
Here are Mr and Mrs Cameron (great outfit – not you Dave).
Here is Ed Miliband and his wife Justine.
Here is Ken Livingstone and his wife Emma Beal.
And here is Boris Johnson and his wife Marina.
Ignoring all convention and precedent, Nick Clegg failed to bring his wife along to vote with him this morning – but he did have some photos taken in front of this lovely tree.
Ken Livingstone has responded to today’s YouGov poll, which gives Boris Johnson a health six-point lead in the London mayoral race. Livingstone said:
Today, Londoners can vote Labour to cut their fares and save themselves on average £1,000, and in doing so ensure that the Conservative party is not rewarded. Every Labour voter must turn out today or the Tories will get away with it – they will carry on with policies that have led to recession, fare rises and police cuts.
The £1,000 figure is a reference to his plans to cut the capital’s transport fares by 7%, which he says will save the average Londoner £1,000.
He has also written a blogpost on the LabourList website. He writes:
Of course, we are the underdogs. The Tories were always going to benefit financially, in terms of media backing, and in terms of support from the most powerful. Though it doesn’t carry the imprint of the Tory party, London’s only daily paper [the Evening Standard] has now become a true blue freesheet.
The piece returns by returning to the theme of financial self-interest:
By spending just a few minutes at the polling station the average fare-payer can make themselves £1,000 better off. There are not many ways you can make £1,000 in less than half an hour. But that is what the average London fare-payer can do from 7am to 10pm today … Polling day poses the clearest possible choice – four years of Tory fare rises, or a Labour fares cut that will save the average fare-payer £1,000.
There is lots of good coverage of the elections in today’s Guardian.
• Hélène Mulholland looks back at the London mayoral race, quoting this analysis of Ken Livingstone’s campaign from Tony Travers, director of the Greater London group at the London School of Economics:
It looks as if the Labour party has asserted some authority over what has been a below-par Livingstone campaign. It is a powerful traditional political intervention and it was the right thing to do because it was clear it was Livingstone who has been badly underperforming under a resurgent Labour party, while Boris was outperforming a seriously wounded Conservative party, so they had to turn it into a straight Labour versus Conservative fight.
• Michael White looks at the English cities where voters are taking part in referendums today on whether or not to have elected mayors. He finds that in city after city “the yes campaign seems to have failed to generate enough momentum to overthrow scepticism, apathy and the status quo”. Meanwhile, voters in Doncaster are being asked today to abandon their mayoral experiment: there is a deadlock between councillors and their elected English Democrat mayor.
With one or two exceptions people seemed to look at politics as a talent show with really boring contestants. You could follow it, or you could ignore it – a lifestyle choice. Either way, it would make no difference to your life. “Without wanting to sound ageist,” a girl in Newcastle told me, “I suggest you go find some older people if you want to talk about the elections. That generation still cares about these things.”
• Helen Pidd returns to Bradford, the scene of George Galloway’s recent byelection triumph, and finds a political race dominated by the firebrand leftwinger – even though he isn’t standing. He might run for mayor if Bradford votes yes in its referendum, though, Pidd reports.
• Andrew Sparrow has been in Liverpool meeting Joe Anderson, the Labour candidate for elected mayor.
Voters … who were backing Anderson often cited his achievement in bringing a cruise liner facility to the Mersey as their reason for supporting him. But the terminal is just one item in an Anderson manifesto that is remarkably upbeat, given that he runs a council badly hit by the coalition’s cuts, and also pro-business to a degree that would make Peter Mandelson proud. It starts with the declaration: “This is an exciting time for Liverpool” and promises 20,000 new jobs, partly generated by a mayoral development corporation. Anderson refuses to be pigeon-holed as New Labour or Old Labour, but he’s passionate about investment, and quite happy to say he would like the private sector to account for a larger slice of the Liverpool economy.
• And Martin Kettle writes that England needs to decide whether it cares about the rest of the UK.
The London press must get out more. It needs to make a much more conscious and deliberate effort to report Scotland and Wales to England, as well to discharge a British responsibility to report to and for Scotland and Wales themselves.England needs to decide whether it cares. Watch the way the local election results are debated over the coming days. For the metropolitan political class, left and right, it will all be about two things: the London mayor and the overall impact on Westminster politics. But local elections are actually about local government everywhere. A better way to assess the 2012 local elections might be to measure what they say about the slow disintegration of British politics and political institutions.
The Scottish council elections have far greater significance than usual this year, Severin Carrell, the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, writes: with the Scottish National party pushing on towards the independence referendum due in 2014, its performance today will be a key test of public opinion and its wider vitality.
This is the first major test of popularity for Alex Salmond, the first minister, and the SNP since their landslide election victory in last May’s Holyrood elections. He is expected to launch his independence referendum campaign in a matter of weeks. Also, he is expected to win today too, on numbers of votes and councillors at least.
Winning control of Glasgow is the biggest single prize – and most expect a very tight race with Labour there, but Salmond insists the main goal is to be Scotland’s largest party by number of councillors and share of the vote.
Given Scotland’s use of the single transferable voting system in large multi-member wards for council elections, the SNP slogan has rhythm and simplicity: Vote SNP, 1, 2, 3.
The SNP is defending 368 seats against Labour’s 337, but was marginally behind Labour on first preference votes in 2007. This time – even the Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont predicts this – the SNP are expected to increase that number comfortably. If the opinion polls are reflected today, it will win most first preference votes too.
It is standing 612 candidates – well up on 2007, against 497 for Labour, 362 Tories and 247 Lib Dems. The Scottish Greens have 86 candidates while 691 independents and others, such as UKIP and Tommy Sheridan’s party Solidarity, are standing too.
The trick then is for the SNP to convert that lead into council control: it is in coalition or minority control of 13 of Scotland’s 32 councils, while Labour is control or coalition at 11. All Scottish votes are being counted on Friday, with the final results due during the afternoon and into the early evening for larger councils such as Glasgow. So the first thing to watch for on Friday is: could the SNP win enough to run Scottish cities on its own?
In Dundee, Edinburgh, Perth, Aberdeen or Stirling for instance? In Glasgow, most observers believe the SNP could just form a ruling coalition, unless Labour’s intense efforts there pull off the victory Lamont and Ed Miliband crave. In these cities, turn-out is key.
YouGov have published two new polls.
Their national voting intention figures are:
Lab: 43%
Con: 33%
Lib Dem: 8%
Ukip: 8%
SNP/Plaid Cymru: 3%
Green: 3%
BNP: 1%
Others: 1%
That’s a 10-point Labour lead, with a very strong showing for Ukip.
YouGov’s final London elections poll for the London Evening Standard shows Boris Johnson on 53% and Ken Livingstone on 47% with the other candidates removed.
In the first-choice vote, Johnson is on 43%, Livingstone on 38%, Brian Paddick (Lib Dem) on 7%, Lawrence Webb (Ukip) on 4%, Siobhan Benita (independent) on 4%, Jenny Jones (Green) on 3%, and Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) on 1%.
In the 2008 London mayoral election, Johnson won 42.48% of first-preference votes to Livingstone’s 36.38%. In the second round, Johnson won 53.17% and Livingstone 46.73%. The results of today’s poll are strikingly similar.
The YouGov poll found that where Londoners were asked to vote for a party, rather than a person, their views were very different:
Lab: 47
Con: 34
Lib Dem: 7
Others: 12
That means Johnson’s personal popularity and Livingstone’s unpopularity have the effect of outweighing a 13-point Labour lead.
YouGov’s prediction for the 25-seat London assembly is:
Lab: 11 (up 3 from 2008)
Con: 8 (down 3)
Lib Dem: 2 (down 1)
Ukip: 2 (up 2)
Green: 2 (no change)
BNP: 0 (down 1)
I just checked with the Electoral Commission when all the results are expected.
In London, the count for the mayor and the assembly will not start until tomorrow morning.
It will take place at three centres across London: Olympia, Alexandra Palace and the Excel centre in the Docklands.
We will gradually get a sense of who is winning over the course of the day. As soon as results from four constituencies are in, those results – including mayoral results for those areas – will be announced. When the next four are in, these will be announced, and the same with the next four, and then the final two. It could be quite an exciting process. The final result is expected at some point between 7pm and midnight on Friday night.
The London Elects website is going to produce live bar charts showing who is winning throughout the day.
Some councils across the country are beginning their counts straight after the polls close, in the traditional way, and those results will be in at some point in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Other councils are going to wait until tomorrow morning to begin counting, meaning those results will be in at some point tomorrow afternoon.
The London voting system is different from that used at general elections, and seems to be causing a fair bit of confusion on Twitter.
Here is an article explaining it in full, but the key points in voting for the mayor are below.
For this contest, you can cast two votes: one vote in the first column for your first choice, the second vote in the second column for your second choice. Vote with a cross not a number.
If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes, he or she is elected.
If not, the two candidates with the most first-choice votes – almost certainly Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone – go to a run-off, with all the other candidates eliminated.
All the ballot papers where eliminated candidates are down as first choice are looked at again, and any second-preference votes for the top two candidates are added to the totals for those candidates.
The candidate with the most first- and second-choice votes combined wins.
Tactical tips
1. If you are voting for Livingstone or Johnson as your first preference, your second preference will almost certainly not count. Second preferences are only redistributed when a ballot paper has as its first preference someone who was eliminated in the first round – and neither Livingstone nor Johnson are likely to be eliminated in the first round.
2. If you are in favour of Lib Dem Brian Paddick, Green Jenny Jones, independent Siobhan Benita, Ukip’s Lawrence Webb, or the BNP’s Carlos Cortiglia, put them as your first preference rather than your second. This is the only way they stand a chance of making it into the second round. If you give them a second-preference vote, this will only count if they get enough first-preference votes from other people to get into the second round.
3. Because the second round is likely to be between Ken and Boris, if you have voted for any other candidate as your first choice, it might be a good idea to choose between Labour and the Conservatives for your second – as then you will still get some say in who will run London even if your real favourite is eliminated.
Some people have asked me (and I’m afraid this question may betray some anti-Boris bias) whether giving their first preference vote to Brian Paddick, Jenny Jones, or one of the other minor candidates, rather than to Livingstone, makes it more likely that Johnson will get above 50% of the vote in the first round, and thus win outright. The answer is no. Whoever you vote for, it does not make any difference to Johnson’s vote or his share of the vote (as long as you vote for someone).
To give a clear example, let’s say 8 people vote for Johnson, and there are 10 other voters.
If 5 of those others vote for Livingstone and 5 for Jones, there are still 8 votes for Johnson and 10 for other candidates, meaning Johnson does not get 50% of the vote.
If 7 of the non-Johnson votes go to Jones and 3 to Livingstone, there are still 8 votes for Johnson and 10 for other candidates, meaning Johnson does not get 50% of the vote.
Please post any other questions below the line and I’ll try to answer them too. They can even be about how to keep Ken Livingstone out.
Hello and welcome to today’s election day live coverage. Andrew Sparrow and I will be live-blogging around the clock from today, when voters start going to the polls in local elections in England, Scotland and Wales, until late on Friday night, when we expect to find out whether Boris Johnson or Ken Livingstone will be the next mayor of London.
As well as the battle for London mayor and elections to the London assembly, which acts as a check on the mayor, there are also elections to 130 councils in England (of a total of 353), all 32 councils in Scotland, and 21 of 22 Welsh councils (elections to Anglesey Council postponed to next May).
Meanwhile two other cities are voting for an elected mayor: Salford and Liverpool.
And 10 cities will hold referendums to decide whether they should have an elected mayor: Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Coventry, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, Nottingham, Sheffield and Wakefield.
My colleagues on the Datablog have put together this map that shows which councils are voting and who controls them now.
And here are details of every candidate standing in the London assembly and London mayoral elections.
I cast my vote this morning at a polling station in the surprisingly pretty Laycock Centre, a conference venue, in Islington, London.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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ZX Spectrum: the legacy of a computer for the masses
Posted by: | CommentsCelebrated today in a pitch-perfect Google Doodle, the anniversary of the ZX Spectrum will have many veteran gamers swooning into a reverie of eighties nostalgia.
Released on this day in 1982, the machine typified the British approach to industrial design – Utilitarian but also idiosyncratic and characterful. It should have been buried by its more powerful contemporary, the Commodore 64, but somehow this strange little slab of plastic and rubber earned itself a considerable slice of the nascent home computing market, especially in Britain.
Partly its success was about price. Since the launch of the ZX80 computer two years earlier, restless British inventor Clive Sinclair had been interested in computing for the masses.
Using cheap components and a minimalistic approach to design, he was able to manufacture machines at a lower cost than rivals such as Acorn, Apple and Tandy. The computer’s rubber keys, for example, were created from a single sheet, with a metal overlay to separate them – much less expensive than producing a conventional keyboard.
So while the BBC Micro started at £235 for the Model A option and the C64 hit the shelves at around £350, the Spectrum launched at just £125 for the 16k version or £175 for the mighty 48k.
At a time of deep recession, with unemployment at 3 million in the UK, this was a vital factor – especially as a lot of the interest in home computers was coming, not from businessmen who wanted to do spreadsheets at home, but from kids, excited by the possibility of writing and playing cool arcade games in their own living rooms.
“The key thing was price for us,” says Ste Pickford, who together with his brother John, started out writing computer games in the earlier eighties.
“We spent a full year with this massive jar in the house labelled ‘Spectrum savings fund’. We put every spare bit of pocket money we had into it. £175 was way more than what mum and dad would have been able to afford on a Christmas present, but we wanted it all year.
“He must have saved up £80, which just about took enough of the price so my parents could put the rest in. So the price was everything. It was the only way a family like ours could have owned a computer.”
There was also a fundamental difference in philosophy – while his competitors were still producing hardware with serious computing interests in mind, Sinclair was targeting the mass market; he saw the wider consumer appeal of computers, not just as serious workhorses for home accounting, but as gadgets that could be as ubiquitous and easy to use as the TV or pocket calculator.
“Computers were quite scary at the time,” remembers Philip Oliver, co-founder of Blitz Games Studios and one half of the Oliver twins, who created the legendary Dizzy series of games on the Spectrum.
“Some people were actually worried they were going to take over the world, thanks to movies like WarGames, other people worried that computers were going to steal their jobs. What the Spectrum did was gave a friendly, fairly simple image to computing. There was nothing frightening about the Spectrum!”
Ironically, there were strengths too in the technical limitations of the hardware. The Commodore 64 was more powerful and capable – its multi-chip architecture had been designed to move coloured sprites around the screen as quickly as possible – but it also did some of the work for the coders.
“When we started at the development studio Binary Designs we noticed that, actually, a lot of the C64 programmers weren’t that good,” says Pickford, now running digital publisher Zee-3, responsible for the Bafta award-nominated puzzler Magnetic Billiards.
“We realised that machines like the C64 had a lot of clever hardware; they did a lot of the hard things – like scrolling and sprites – for you. You could get most of the way to having a game running without knowing that much.
“The Spectrum had nothing. Architechtually, it was a really simple machine for a programmer – it was just a load of Ram and a processor; and the screen itself was just dealt with as part of the ram. You had to do everything the hard way, but it meant that if you managed to get a sprite moving around on the screen, you’d done a lot of really clever stuff.
“Years later, when that generation of coders grew up, Britain was really punching above its weight in the PlayStation era, when you had the start of games like Grand Theft Auto. The Spectrum bred a generation of really smart programmers.”
This blank slate design also meant that developers weren’t steered toward creating conversions of established arcade titles – they were free to improvise. Hence, the surreal Python-esque platform puzzlers Manic Miner and Jet Set Willy, created by eccentric lone coder Matthew Smith; hence, the beautiful and challenging arcade adventure, Head over Heels, by Jon Ritman who introduced the concept of controlling two different characters.
There were also bizarre experiments like Mel Croucher’s Deus Ex Machina, an adventure about life emerging from a computer, which came with an audio tape featuring Ian Dury and Doctor Who star Jon Pertwee.
The ZX Spectrum held its own in the format wars until the late eighties, and developers were pushing the tech to the very end.
For example, the initial inability to properly colour sprites without bleeding out into surrounding space (thanks to the way the Spectrum handled colours as 8×8 pixel cells), was defeated in games like Trap Door and Dizzy through the use of thick character outlines and large sprites.
But the machine didn’t prosper outside of the UK, and with the arrival of 16bit behemoths like the Commodore Amiga, as well as specialist consoles like the Ninteno NES and Sega Master System, Sinclair found itself unable to compete.
But for those thrilling years between 1982 and 1988, against other machines designed to push objects around screens, the Spectrum symbolised and amplified a peculiarly British approach to technology; it was about lone mavericks, doing their own thing, figuring stuff out, inventing their own conventions.
Certainly, the Commodore 64 produced plenty of genius coders, artists and game musicians, but the Spectrum arguably fostered something else – something that the Raspeberry Pi initiative is now attempting to re-capture – an approach to computer hardware that is more about exploiting the machine, testing the architecture, probing at the metal and silicon innards, rather than trusting to high-level languages and application-programmer interfaces.
Writing for the ZX Spectrum was more about invention than design. It was a blank slate on to which a large section of the British game development industry drew itself.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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French presidential election: reaction to first round – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsNot sure about the different policies of the two main French presidential candidates? My colleague Angelique Chrisafis has written this useful primer.
The BBC’s Business Editor Robert Peston has written a blog asking if Hollande is indeed the enemy of finance – or in fact its prisoner.
Is Hollande the enemy or the prisoner of finance? He looks pretty shackled bbc.in/K13mHt
— Robert Peston (@Peston) April 23, 2012
Peston writes:
The point is that the French government and French economy is disproportionately dependent on the goodwill of overseas investors and banks.
Here are the statistics.
According to IMF figures, 59% of France’s government debt is held overseas – which means that well over half of all lending to the French state is not motivated by sentimentality or patriotism in any way.
To put that figure into context, just 24.8% of UK general government debt is provided by foreigners.
Perhaps more relevantly, the French government has to borrow a colossal sum equivalent to 18.2% of GDP this year and 19.5% next year to finance debt that is maturing and the current deficit.
So, to extrapolate from the current ownership pattern of its debt, France needs to retain the goodwill of overseas investors to provide loans equivalent to something like 10% of its GDP this year and a similar amount in 2013.
He suggests that Hollande is all talk and no trousers (his words, not mine)
So does this mean that there is likely to be some great financial cataclysm for France if Mr Hollande is elected?
Well, the opposite may be true.
The logic goes that he must be aware that the French state dare not alienate the international investment community to any great extent.
Which is why many influential investors see Mr Hollande as an intriguing politician with a lot of mouth but not a huge amount in the trouser department. They note, for example, that when he made a flying visit to the UK a few weeks ago, he went out of his way to play down how dangerous he would be to the City of London and international financial businesses.
My colleague the most lovely Jon Henley, former Paris correspondent for the Guardian and dedicated Francophile, has been in touch with a rather counter-intuitive thought regarding the Front National’s performance last night.
Not wishing in the least to minimise the gravity of Marine Le Pen’s score in last night’s poll, the Front National’s highest ever in a French national election — it cannot be anything but depressing that very nearly a fifth of French voters decided to cast their ballot for the FN. But:
Marine Le Pen polled approximately 1.3% more than her father in 2002, the party’s previous highest score.
Jean-Marie Le Pen was running at a time of relative economic prosperity in France, when the protest vote is traditionally low; against a reasonably popular right-wing incumbent, Jacques Chirac, from whom he could not realistically have expected to steal a ton of votes; and he was a one-eyed former paratrooper and political pariah who delighted in outraging the electorate with remarks such as the Nazi gas chambers being “a detail of history”.
His daughter ran at a time of severe economic depression, when the protest vote is traditionally sky-high; against a historically unpopular right-wing incumbent from whom she could legitimately expect to steal a ton of votes; and she is a far less repugnant figure who has spent the past year and more working extremely hard to distance herself from her father’s image and detoxify her party.
Looked at that way, shouldn’t she have scored even higher?
Reader AlarmedAhmed below the line has come up with an EXCELLENT translation of that most pleasing Libération headline.
And pleasing word play from Liberation.”Hollande en tete,Le Pen trouble-fete”-Hollande ahead,Le Pen the spoilsport twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
AlarmedAhmed suggests:
I just thought of a punchy translation of the Libération newspaper headline.
(“Hollande en tête – Le Pen trouble-fête”)“Hollande’s the one – but Le Pen spoils the fun”
It really is very good, isn’t it.
In an attempt to get back on the front foot Nicolas Sarkozy has announced today that he will organise a “très grand” meeting around “real work” on May 1.
Instantané de campagne: “le 1er mai, nous allons organiser la fête du travail, de ceux qui travaillent dur.” instagr.am/p/JwdkTUt7n7/
— Nicolas Sarkozy (@NicolasSarkozy) April 23, 2012
In front of the press at his HQ, Sarkozy said:
“On May 1, we are going to organise a celebration of work, but of real work and those who work hard, who are exposed, who suffer and who don’t those who don’t work to earn more than those who do.”
Some interesting thoughts from moossyn a reader who was in France last night for the count.
They have some thoughts on the impact The Front National could now have:
What really does worry me though is [...] the FN are going to be in very strong positions in a lot of seats at the next parliamentary elections. This gives the FN a lot of power. Two of the ideas that were floated last night (by people who know more about this sort of thing) were that a) The UMP will have to do some sort of deal with MLP in return for a ‘vote UMP says le pen’ or b) The UMP will fracture as deals are done at a local level as everybody tries to salvage something for themselves.
I noted last night that following the historic result for the Front National last night, Marine Le Pen was throwing some shapes on the dance floor (see 10.29pm, on yesterday’s blog).
I was chastised by a French friend for saying she was dancing to “Terrible French disco” – Les Rita Mitsouko is a much-loved staple at any French wedding – but Le Parisien has some footage of her getting down to All Night Long by Lionel Richie. Enjoy!
Nicolas Sarkozy in a combative mood (quelle surprise!) this morning as he confronts journalists. “It was only a few months ago that you were saying I wouldn’t even make it to the second round – do you remember that?,” he challenges.
Reacting to the fact that François Hollande has rejected his call for three debates before the next round, instead of the traditional single debate, Sarkozy said:
“I state again my incomprehension that François Hollande does not want the debates.”
The editorial on the front page of the Figaro (£, en Français) is less enthusiastic – unsurprisingly – about Hollande’s victory. “It’s an advantage certainly, but not decisive bearing in mind the disappointing performance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon,” it states.
Editorial in Le Figaro (en Francais) twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
The paper notes that in refusing to give her backing to Sarkozy, Le Pen would carry “the heavy responsibility” of allowing the election of a left-wing candidate. “The vast majority of the FN voters, if they want to avoid the worst political outcome, will have no choice but to vote Sarkozy to stop Hollande.”
Étienne Mougeotte of Le Figaro writes (again, apologies for loose translation):
The paradox of this new political deal, is that the Left still does not have, not by a long way, a majority in the country. Yet that might suffice to propel François Hollande to the Elysee on May 6.
Let’s take a look at how the French media has reacted to last night’s election results.
First up: left-wing http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/2012/04/22/echo_813636.
Echo bit.ly/JpykxL
— Libération (@liberation_info) April 23, 2012
Nicolas Demorand writes (and my apologies in advance for the quick translation):
Firstly, the clear victory of François Hollande. It was not guaranteed, far from it. His first place finish tells us a lot. It shows us a profound desire for a change in politics, the manner of leading the country, a willingness to see other values given prominence.
He continues to reflect on the strong showing of the FN:
Never has the far right been so strong in France. This first round is not as tragic as ten years ago, but just as worrying. If not more.
[...]
Confronted with this new political landscape the choice is clear from now on: Come up with answers to this distress throughout the entire country, without abandoning the values of the Republic. Find the way out of the economic, social and moral crises honestly by showing what could be the future of the country, instead of boosting the myth of a France that will only survive if it closes itself around its history, by strengthening its borders. After May 6 and for the coming years, from this point on this is the choice that voters face.
With Marine Le Pen in a strong position as potential Kingmaker this morning, how she will affect the second round is being hotly debated.
Le Pen’s campaign’s manager Florian Philippot has said this morning that the Front National will not enter into negotiations with Sarkozy’s UMP, reports Le Figaro.
Many thanks to Cordite below the line who translates the key point of the article for us:
The campaign manager of Marine Le Pen (FN), Florian Philippot , ruled out this morning to “discuss” with the UMP by the second round, saying his movement was “not in compromise and small scams politicians “.
“No, we did not go talk to the UMP. We’re not the modem, it is not the Greens, it is not that the Left Front agrees miserably in Holland (…) We’re not in the compromise and little tricks politicians, “he said on Canal +.
Asked whether voting instructions for the second round, he felt that they could “not choose between two candidates interchangeable”, itself about to “maybe white vote, vote again or Marine Le Pen” .
“People are free, they do what they want, but is it possible to choose between Sarkozy and Holland when you see what condition they left the country?” Insisted Florian Philippot.
The score of 18% made Sunday night by the President of the far right is in his eyes “a vote of hope”. “The test last night must be processed in the future, we can have a lot of members (…) that can change things,” he said.
Le Figaro is reporting that the French stock exchange has reacted to last night’s results with a clear drop this morning.
Présidentielle : la Bourse de Paris ouvre en nette baisse bit.ly/IpAWbT
— Le Figaro (@Le_Figaro) April 23, 2012
Le Pen – whose father last night said he was “very proud” – made little effort to hide her delight at winning 18% of the vote, as this photo demonstrates.
Le Monde has some good graphics showing how the French voted in different regions of the country.
The results for Marine Le Pen reveal the Front National candidate won in Gard, but also get her best scores in the North-east of the country, where she was often in second place. The FN also made break-throughs in new regions, such as Brittany.
It appears that the French authorities warnings to French and foreign media not to publish early results before all polling stations had closed were not idle threats.
The French electoral commission has announced this morning is investigating AFP, Twitter and several foreign news sites (namely in Belgium and Switzerland) for having broken the law embargoing polls or results before 8pm. An investigation has been launched and punishment threatened – previously it warned that offenders would face fines of up to 75,000 euros ($100,000).
The #radiolondres was imaginative in its efforts to get round the rules – some of the top tweets can be found here (en Français).
The hashtag #radiolondres was used in homage to Charles de Gaulle, the first president of modern France, who lead the French resistance broadcasting messages from London during World War II.
The New York Times is also carrying a piece about how the French used Twitter to get around the rules.
With references to the temperature in Budapest in Hungary representing Sarkozy (his father’s birthplace), and red tomatoes standing in for Leftist firebrand Mélenchon, the most unkind signifier was left for Hollande, nicknamed “flamby” after the wobbly French custard dessert.
“Le flamby cuit à 27°” – The flan is cooked at 27° – wrote one wag.
The Guardian’s Paris correspondent Angelique Chrisafis has sent this analysis on the mood in France this morning following last night’s first round election results.
François Hollande has the clear advantage this morning. His score is symbolic – is the highest showing by the left since François Mitterrand was re-elected in 1988. He is around one and a half points clear of Nicolas Sarkozy. This is the first time a serving president has been knocked into second position in the past 50 years. Already polls show Hollande roundly beating Sarkozy in the second round.
However, the surge by the extreme-right Marine Le Pen – the highest ever score by the Front National – complicates matters. The race will now be tight and awkward. The mood among the French political class was pretty tense this morning. Le Pen is at 18%, with 6.5m voters. She came top in the southern department of the Gard, which has high unemployment. She came second in around 10 departments in the east of France which also face unemployment and industry moving away.
The key question now is how many of Le Pen’s voters will transfer to vote for Sarkozy in the final May 6 run-off. This is not clear, but a substantial number could abstain. All depends on how strong the mood of anti-Sarkozyism is. Much of Le Pen’s vote is a protest
vote against Sarkozy and the system. It will be hard for Sarkozy to now secure a large portion of Le Pen’s voters while also reaching out to the smaller pool of voters of the centrist Francois Bayrou, of whom only one third are expected to transfer to the president.
Shock about the unexpected strong showing from the far-right Front National candidate Marine Le Pen dominates the front pages of today’s papers in France.
Centre-right paper Le Figaro leads with the headline “Marine Le Pen’s break-through relaunches the second round”.
Reaction to last night’s #presidentielle. Le Figaro:Marine Le Pen has relaunched the second round #france2012 twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
Le Parisien carries a picture of the two candidates France expected to go through to the second round, and a picture of the surprise success of the evening.
#france2012 Le Parisien splashes with the headline: “An expected duel…and a surprise” with a picture of Marine Le Pen twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
But clearly the most pleasing headline of the day comes from Libération, with some clever word-play. “Hollande ahead, but Le Pen proves a spoilsport”. It works better in French as you can see below.
And pleasing word play from Liberation.”Hollande en tete,Le Pen trouble-fete”-Hollande ahead,Le Pen the spoilsport twitter.com/LexyTopping/st…
— Alexandra Topping (@LexyTopping) April 23, 2012
Final figures from last night reveal that the race between Sarkozy and Hollande may be slightly closer than expected. Hollande took 28.63% of the vote, Sarkozy 27.08% while Marine Le Pen – who at one stage looked like winning 20% of the vote – took 18% of the vote.
Bonjour! France wakes this morning with the knowledge that Socialist candidate François Hollande has won the first round of the French presidential election, and is now well placed to beat Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round on 6 May to become the next president of the Republic. But it also wakes knowing that almost one in five voters voted for the far right candidate Marine Le Pen, who could now play a significant role in the second round. Follow the liveblog this morning for reaction and analysis to last night’s results in France.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010
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Anders Behring Breivik trial, day three – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsAP has details of the exchange between the prosecutor and Breivik over whether the Knights Templar meeting actually took place.
Breivik refused to give details on what he claims was the founding session of the “Knights Templar” in London in 2002.
He conceded, however, that he embellished somewhat in the manifesto when he described the other three members at the founding session as “brilliant political and military tacticians of Europe.” Breivik testified that he had used “pompous” language and described them instead as “four people with great integrity.”
Bejer Engh challenged him on whether the meeting had taken place at all.
“Yes, there was a meeting in London,” Breivik insisted.
“It’s not something you have made up?” Engh countered.
“I haven’t made up anything. What is in the compendium is correct,” he said.
Later, he answered with more nuance.
“There is nothing that is made up, but you have to see what is written in a context. It is a glorification of certain ideals,” Breivik said.
The court has now adjourned for lunch.
Breivik says that “legitimacy is achieved through action”, making the distinction between “keyboard generals” and those who put their ideas into practice.
Breivik says he could be considered a “role model” for other “militant nationalists” after last year’s attacks on 22/7
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Says “keyboard warriors” can’t be role models “because it’s difficult to promote martyrdom when you fear death yourself”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “There are lots of keyboard warriors out there, also called sofa generals, but more often than not they have serious problems…
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “… winning ground with their views because they were only keyboard warriors.” Credibility achieved thru “an action, an operation”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik says he and the Knights Templar were influenced by Serb nationalists rather than Nazis.
Breivik says, at their inaugral meeting, the Knights Templar, needed to distance itself from the Nazis.
Breivik said the inaugral Knights Templar meeting In London agreed need to “distance oneself sufficiently from national socialism…”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: need to distance new militant nationalism from Nazis “because it was quite blood stenched.” Maybe stained better translation?
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “For the extreme right to ever be able to prevail in Europe in the future one had to distance oneself from the old school ideology”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik describes Richard as a “perfect knight”.
He then reveals his own “codename”.
Breivik says he chose the codename Sigurd after the 12th century Norwegian king – “perhaps the most important leader Norway has ever had”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is asked about the English mentor named “Richard”, who he told police about.
Breivik also said in his 1500-page manifesto he met a “mentor” who used the pseudonym Richard – after Richard the Lionheart – at the founding meeting of the Knights Templar Europe “military order” in London in 2002.
Shortly after the 22 July massacre, a rightwing blogger who is a member of an anti-Muslim group with a similar name to the one Breivik claimed to belong to denied meeting the Norwegian gunman.
Paul Ray, who writes a blog under the name Lionheart, said he belonged to an anti Muslim group called The Ancient Order of the Templar Knights but denied ever meeting Breivik and said he was horrified by the killngs. In a telephone interview with Associated Press, Ray said he was not at the 2002 London meeting that Breivik described in his manifesto.
But Ray did say that it appeared Breivik had drawn inspiration from some of his ideas and writings.
It’s really pointing at us. All these things he’s been talking about are linked to us. It’s like he’s created this whole thing around us.
Once more Breivik uses that word “pompous” to describe his manifesto but insists the content is all factually accurate. He says the manifesto was “selling dreams”.
Breivik says his manifesto was a “sales tool…we are selling dreams. That’s what it is to sell an ideology if you wish you inspire others.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
The prosecutor is referring to what Breivik wrote about his visit to London in his manifesto.
Breivik now says that the Serb was not in London, despite writing in his manifesto that he was.
Breivik refuses to elaborate on claims in his manifesto of the “English protestant host” in London who became his “mentor”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
#Breivik:court now looking at Breivik’s manifesto s.968, which details the ‘founding session’ apparently held in London in April 2002.
— Paul Brennan (@paulrbrennan) April 18, 2012
I met 3 persons in London + the Serb in Liberia. #Breivik
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 18, 2012
Prosecutor points out #Breivik told police the Serb was in London, yet he now insists the Serb was not there. Another contradiction (lie?)
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
Was there a meeting in London. Yes! So you haven’t made it up. No! I haven’t made anything up. #Breivik
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
Breivik is asked a series of questions relating to his visit to London in 2002 which he refuses to answer.
Breivik doesn’t look ruffled. Cheeks slightly flushed, but seems to be enjoying frustrating the prosecution, who ask “why are you smiling?”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
More frustration expressed by Breivik as he tells the prosecution.
Don’t ridicule me.
Questioning has resumed but once more Breivik is challenging the line of questioning.
Grumpy Breivik tells prosecutor: “You have chosen a de-legitimisation strategy to strip me of credibility.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
#Breivik says he doesn’t want to comment any more on Liberia. Tells prosec to refer to police ivws. “i won’t make this easier for you.”
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
Bereaved families and victims not wanting to be interviewed are wearing stickers stating the fact.
Families and victims not wanting to be interviewed are wearing stickers “no interviws please”. #Breivik twitter.com/TrygveSorvaag/…
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 18, 2012
Helen Pidd sends this summary of today’s opening session from Oslo:
Breivik seems in a more belligerent mood today, refusing to answer the prosecution’s questions or taking an age to do so. The way the court deals with his behaviour is especially interesting for a British journalist used to covering trials at the Old Bailey or other crown courts. Back home, barristers tend to showboat, using elaborate language in an attempt to outwit a defendant. Should the accused dare to throw a question back during cross examination, he or she is quickly told to step into line.
But not in Norway. This morning, the prosecutors are trying to tease out from Breivik why he made a trip to Liberia in the spring of 2002. They know he went there because they have seen the genuine stamps in his passport. But they want him to explain why – he has repeatedly says he has no wish to play ball. The reason, he says, is that he does not want to say anything that could lead to anyone else’s arrest.
Yet in 1,100 pages of police interviews, Breivik has already opened up about his Liberian adventure, and the prosecutors want him to elaborate for the benefit of the five judges, who have not read the police transcripts. “I do not wish to comment on Liberia. You’ll have to skip it,” said Breivik at one point. Inga Bejer Engh, the prosecutor leading today, held her cool, saying she couldn’t skip it and would have to read from the police transcript. “Fine,” said
Breivik. “Read it, then.”Breivik also told berated Engh and the police for “not following up leads” relating to 8,000 Facebook contacts to whom he sent his manifesto and the Serb war criminal he claims to have met in Liberia.
The court has now adjourned for 20 minutes.
Breivik says he told his friends he was going to Liberia but not the reason for doing so. Asked why he told them he was going to Liberia instead of making up a more conventional destination, he claimed he does not like lying.
Breivik: “It’s difficult to tell lies. I’m a person that doesn’t like to lie. I’ve only told lies in very extreme cases.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik seems a lot less comfortable with the prosecutor’s questions this morning and has been warned that if he doesn’t answer that may be used against him.
Prosecutor to Breivik: “The fact you choose to remain silent may be used against you.” He won’t answer q’s about Liberia.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
How persausive a threat that is given that he has admitted the killings and it is just his sanity that is to be established is questionable. But he does give some more details about Liberia nonetheless.
Breivik claims his “cover” story for entering Liberia was to meet militants was that “i had a bleeding heart and was working for UNICEF.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik’s second Liberian cover story was that “I was smuggling blood diamonds.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
The prosecutor has confirmed, from the accused’s passport, that Breivik went to Liberia, which leads the defendant to mock the first psychiatrist who concluded that he was insane.
Breivik “Isn’t that quite remarkable that I was actually in Liberia? So it’s not true that this was a psychotic fantasy.” Adamant he is sane
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is making derogatory comments about women, suggesting most don’t have the comprehension or “backbone” to be a “revolutionary activist”.
Breivik says “anyone” could follow his example by reading his compendium. Except women. “Maybe not women – 1 in 10 women perhaps.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: “If you look at revolutionary activists in the world, only one in 10 is a woman.” Plus, terrorists need a “backbone”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik: to be like me “you must be born with a backbone,. Not everyone is born with a backbone; of course you can develop one.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is unhappy at the line of questioning in court today. He feels like he is being ridiculed and there is an attempt to expose him as a liar.
Your purpose is to cast doubt on the existence of this network. Isn’t that right? #Breivik. Prosecutor says she just wants to shed light.
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 18, 2012
#Breivik: “You are trying to ridicule me”
— Paul Brennan (@paulrbrennan) April 18, 2012
#Breivik “Let us jump over this and go to conclusion. Police do not beleive I met anyone in Serbia”
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 18, 2012
While Breivik refuses to name the Serb nationalist he claims to have met in Liberia, Norwegian police believe he is referring to Milorad Ulemek. However, police are not sure whether the pair actually met, as Breivik claims, and Ulemek’s lawyer claims they have not.
Ulemek’s lawyer told the Norwegian broadcasting corporation, NRK, that his client had never met Breivik (Norwegian link):
When Ulemek first heard about this, he just laughed, said [Aleksander] Zorica of the alleged contact between Anders Breivik Behring and his client.
Asked by NRK whether Ulemek and Breivik have met, Ulemek’s lawyer responded that the two have never met.
Zorica said to NRK that Ulemek had never heard of the organization Knights Templar, to which Breivik refers.
The prosecution refers to claims by the defendant to have met Serb nationalists, contained in Breivik’s manifesto “2083 – A declaration of European independence”. The claim is contained in the section about meetings with militant nationalists with whom he formed the Knights Templar (which the prosecution said in its opening statement “does not exist”.
The accused describes the language in the manifesto as “pompous”, an adjective he used a number of times yesterday without quite explaining what he meant.
He says he attended a training camp after being screened.
#Breivik manifesto says “I remember they did a complete screening and background check to ensure I was of the desired caliber.”
— Matthew Price (@matthewwprice) April 18, 2012
#Breivik manifesto: “According to one of them, they were considering several hundred individuals throughout Europe for a training course.”
— Paul Brennan (@paulrbrennan) April 18, 2012
Breivik claims he attended a Liberian training course in “revolutionary knowledge.. Rhetorical strategies, propaganda, production of bombs”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
This Serb nationalist he claims he met in Liberia was wanted for war crimes, says Breivik.
Breivik claims this Serbian militant nationalist in Liberia was wanted for “war crimes”, for “defending his country…against Muslims.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik is talking about police surveillance.
Breivik says he avoided contact with “other Norwegian nationalists” for fear of ending up on a police/secret service surveillance list
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
He claims he travelled to Liberia to meet a Serb nationalist but refuses to name him.
Breivik says he went to Liberia in 2001 to meet a “militant nationalist” from Serbia. Refuses to name him for fear he will be arrested.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 18, 2012
Breivik has arrived back in court, once more making a clenched-fist salute.
Before moving onto today, Helen Pidd responds to a question raised by some readers with respect to yesterday’s proceedings:
Some on Twitter this morning have queried an assertion I made in my main story on Tuesday in which I wrote that Breivik never “fully articulated” the threat on which he was so fixated.
I think I could have explained that better. He did articulate the many threats he saw posed by “cultural marxists” who he claimed had destroyed Norway by using it as “a dumping ground for the surplus births of the third world.” He went on and on about what he sees as the dangers posed by Muslims, and how they were trying to take over western Europe.
But what made Tuesday such an arduous day in court was not just the hateful nature of his testimony, but the fact that so much of it was completely contradictory.
Not only does Breivik claim that he had copied al-Qaida’s strategies in order to protect the west from the Islamist threat, but he also insisted that his goal (in the short to medium term) was to make pariahs of Europe’s nationalists – the very people with whom you might expect him to feel kinship.
“I thought I had to provoke a witchhunt of modern moderately conservative nationalists,” he said. Then he claimed that this curious strategy had already borne fruit, citing the example of Norway’s prime minister, Jens Stoltenberg, who he said had given a speech since the attacks saying that critics of immigration were wrong.
The effect of this “witchhunt”, said Breivik, would be to increase “censorship” of moderately nationalist views, which would “increase polarisation”. The effect of this, he said, would eventually lead to “more radicalisation as more will lose hope and lose faith in democracy”. Ultimately, he said, these new radicals would join the war he has started to protect the “indigenous people” of Norway and western Europe.
He said this logic was understood by very few, and that he had received letters from Norwegian and European nationalists saying “what are you doing?! We are getting no support as a result of this.” He added: “I don’t expect anybody to understand this… the only ones who understand this are themselves ultra-nationalists.”
Good morning. Welcome to live coverage of day three of the trial of Anders Behring Breivik.
The defendent made a lengthy opening statement yesterday in which he said he “would have done it again”.
The prosecution then began questioning him, which will continue today. Once again, the TV cameras are not allowed to film but Helen Pidd is in court for the Guardian and will be filing updates.
Here is a link to yesterday’s blog.
And here is a link to the news story from today’s Guardian.
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Syria crisis and Bahrain unrest – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsEgypt: The Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission decision to uphold the disqualification of both Khariat al-Shater of the Muslim Brotherhood and Omar Suleiman, Mubarak’s former intelligence chief, may come as a relief to both men, as some are suggesting – neither man was ever a serious contender.
Shater (pictured) has been working on the assumption that he will become prime minister this summer, not president, diplomatic sources say.
He also expects the prime minister to have a more important role than the president, since the Brotherhood’s plan is to increase the power of parliament under the still-to-be-drafted constitution and decrease that of the president, they point out.
According to one story that is circulating, Shater’s entry into the presidential contest was basically a game of bluff in which the candidacies of Shater and Suleiman were meant to cancel each other out – as has now happened. Though we can’t confirm that this is the real story behind the scenes, it has a ring of plausibility.
Assuming Shater does become prime minister, he is likely to face tough times ahead. The country’s financial reserves have more than halved since the revolution and, according to an EU diplomat who was visiting London earlier this week, “Egypt will have to be rescued by the international community in a few months.”
Discussions have been taking place behind the scenes, involving the military council, the Brotherhood, the EU and the IMF, with a view to having an 18-month programme in place by August or September.
The aid will come with “very strong conditionality”, the diplomat said – meaning that the Brotherhood (assuming it holds the reins of government by then) will have to accept a very tough austerity package.
The Brotherhood has “a good economic team”, the diplomat said, and it recognises the need for austerity. However, all sides also recognise that persuading the Egyptian public to accept it will be problematic politically. The Brotherhood is therefore planning to announce a series of popular measures during its first weeks in power before moving on to the unpopular ones – such as addressing the subsidies on bread and fuel.
Bahrain: Activist Ala’a Shehabi has circulated video showing the crown prince being met by a small crowd of protester chanting “we want the downfall of the regime” in the village of Sanabis.
She tweeted:
Sanabis village is an opposition stronghold, very rare would a member of the ruling troika set foot there particularly at this time #Bahrain
— Dr Ala’a Shehabi (@alaashehabi) April 18, 2012
Guardian correspondent Paul Weaver, who is Bahrain to cover Sunday’s Grand Prix, says 15 demonstrations are planned in the kingdom today.
There was a heavy security presence in Dera’a during yesterday’s UN observer mission, according to video from activists.
It doesn’t look as if they are being granted unfettered access.
Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, says the bombardment of Homs appears to be increasing despite last Thursday’s ceasefire.
Speaking to reporters last night she said:
I would observe that the situation is not improving, the violence is continuing, the bombardment, particularly in Homs, seems to be increasing, and the conditions that one would want and need to see for the effective deployment of the balance of the monitors are not at present in place.
She repeated the point on Twitter this morning:
In #Syria, the violence is continuing. The bombardment, particularly in Homs and Idlib, is increasing.
— Susan Rice (@AmbassadorRice) April 18, 2012
Rice said Annan’s mission represented “potentially the last best effort to resolve the situation through peaceful diplomatic means”.
But she conceded that mission may be “impossible”.
It may be that the government’s logic is that it will continue the use of violence despite its repeated commitments as long as it can get away with it. From the US point of view, we have been very clear that we have no illusions—that we are going to assess the government as we have today on the basis of its actions, not its words. We’re very concerned with the resumption and the escalation of violence, particularly the bombardment in Homs and we are by no means limiting our efforts to the good diplomatic work that we are supporting here at the United Nations, but also very much engaged in efforts to strengthen and increase the pressure on Assad and hence the meeting today in Paris on sanctions. We’re also very much interested in supporting the opposition to cohere and coalesce—the peaceful political opposition—and we are providing non-lethal support, primarily medical supplies and communications equipment to that end. So this is from our view a multifaceted effort, but the political process is one that we will support as long as possibly viable.
This dual approach of proclaiming support for Annan on the one hand contemplating tougher action on the other was criticised as counter productive in the latest International Crisis Group report on Syria.
Four opposition districts in Homs have been bombarded again this morning, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
It told AFP that the neighbourhoods of Jurat al-Shayah, Al-Qarabis, Khaldiyeh and Bayada, all came under attack.
Once again activists have circulated video purporting to show the latest shelling of the city. This clips purports to show the skyline of Khadiyeh.
(all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. The Arab League has urged Syria to help UN observers and the crackdown in Bahrain continues ahead of Sunday’s Grand Prix.
Here’s a roundup of the latest developments:
Syria
• Oppositions activists and the government accused each other of breaching the precarious ceasefire as an advance team of United Nations observers was spotted in the southern city of Dera’a, the New York Times reports. “Three United Nations cars came, escorted by security,” said Ammar, a law student in Dera’a. He said protesters took to the streets instantly to send a message to the observers, who stayed closeted in an extended meeting with the local governor.
• Arab League ministers have pressed Syria to co-operate with UN monitors after meeting international envoy Kofi Annan. A statement issued after meeting in Qatar said: “We request the Syrian government to help observers do their job and allow transport and the ability to reach all areas in Syria, and not to impose conditions on them that prevent them from doing their job.”
• The United Nations security council is expected to approve deploying a full mission of 250 monitors to Syria later today, but secretary general Ban Ki-moon questioned whether that number would be sufficient, the LA Times reports. “I think this is not enough, considering the current situation and considering the vastness of the country, and that is why we need very efficient mobility of our observer mission,” he said.
• International tensions over the observer mission are mounting after Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused unnamed countries of seeking to destroy Annan’s plan for a peaceful resolution to the 13-month-long crisis. His remarks seemed aimed at both western and Arab countries, especially Qatar and Saudi Arabia, leading opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
• China’s foreign minister is meeting with his Syrian counterpart in the latest show of support for Damascus despite Beijing’s tentative engagement with the opposition. The official Xinhua News Agency said Yang Jiechi exchanged views on the latest Syrian developments on Wednesday with Walid Moallem in Beijing.
Sheila Lyall Grant and Huberta von Voss-Wittig said in a letter accompanying the video that as a champion of women’s equality, Assad could not “hide behind her husband”.
Bahrain
• Bahrain has arrested at least 60 protest leaders in recent days to try to prevent widescale unrest ahead of a controversial Formula One Grand Prix this week, according to activists. They also said riot police had used live ammunition for the first time since last year’s pro-democracy protest movement was crushed, firing bullets into the air.
• The Bahraini royal family is divided over whether to free a jailed human rights leader, Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, who has been on hunger strike for more than 60 days, the Independent reports. A Bahraini source told the paper: “They were going to release him three weeks ago but this was vetoed by hardliners in the family.”
Libya
• A former Libyan dissident who was abducted and flown to one of Muammar Gaddafi’s prisons in a so-called rendition operation mounted with the help of MI6 has started legal proceedings against Jack Straw, who was British foreign secretary at the time. Lawyers representing Abdel Hakim Belhaj confirmed that they had served papers on Straw alleging his complicity in the torture that Belhaj subsequently suffered, as well as misfeasance in public office.
Egypt
• The election authorities have upheld the disqualification of 10 presidential candidates including Omar Suleiman, former intelligence chief; and Khairat Shater the Muslim Brotherhood financier; and the Salifist Hazem Salah abu Ismai. A member of the judicial commission said: “All appeals have been rejected because nothing new was offered in the appeal requests.”
Israel
• An Israeli soldier filmed slamming his M16 assault rifle into the face of a Danish protester faces possible dismissal from the army following an investigation and after conceding to friends he had “erred” in his action. Amid continued widespread coverage of the incident in the Israeli media, the defence minister, Ehud Barak, joined in the condemnation of the incident, saying the actions of Lt Col Shalom Eisner were unacceptable and that a full inquiry would be held.
Morocco
• Human Rights Watch has urged the authorities to release a rapper who has spent three weeks in pretrial detention on charges that he insulted the police in his songs. Police arrested Mouad Belghouat, known as “al-Haqed” because of a YouTube video with a photo of a policeman whose head has been replaced with a donkey’s.
There may have been no revolution in Morocco last year, but the thirst for change and accountability is real. As other Arab regimes discovered, promising reform can only get you so far before it becomes a matter of re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. Perhaps Morocco still has more lessons to learn than to teach after the Arab uprisings.
Iran
• A popular Iranian singer who publicly defied regime censorship by releasing pro-opposition songs on the internet has been sentenced to a year in jail. Arya Aramnejad, 28, a musician from Iran’s northern city of Babol, fell foul of the authorities after singing political songs in condemnation of the regime’s crackdown against the Green movement.
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Anders Behring Breivik gives evidence – live updates
Posted by: | CommentsBreivik cites Wikipedia as a source for his learning.
Breivik said much of his “learning” comes from Wikipedia: “The English articles there contain a lot of information”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik says he does not have formal education but that his studies between leaving school and 2010 amount to 15,000 hours.
The court is in session again and Breivik is taking umbrage at being asked about his childhood.
Breivik says no point delving into his early years. “I had a good childhood. That is not why I decided to be a militant nationalist.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
We mentioned earlier (see 9.39am) that Breivik had referred to a Times article from 9 February 2010 in which he claimed that it said:
Three fifths of Englishmen believe that the UK has turned into a dysfunctional society as a result of multiculturalism.
There appears to be no such article on that date. It appears that he may be inaccurately citing the paper’s splash on that date (link behind paywall), which makes no reference to multiculturalism and immigration. It reads:
Nearly, three fiths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in.
But the target of their ire does not appear to be immigrants. The paper says:
Voters’ main fire is directed at political institutions: 73% say politics is broken in Britain and 77% say there are far fewer people in public life that they admire than there used to be. The poll suggests anger at MPs who have had to repay expenses. A third say that they will vote against their local MP if he or she had been required to repay money.
He has described what he did on 22 July last year as a “suicide attack”.
I didn’t expect to survive the day.
The court is now in recess for 20 minutes.
Breivik claims that he cried on the opening day of the trial when viewing his propaganda video, because it was touching.
Here is the clip again.
Breivik says he cried at his propaganda film because it was “touching”, “I was thinking that my country and my ethnic group, they are dying”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik:v “I know it is gruesome what I have done and I know that I have caused an incredible amount of pain to thousands of people.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
But, Breivik added: “It was necessary.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
The journalists’ conference that Breivik claims to have targetted appears to be that run by Skup, a foundation set up to help promote investigative journalism.
In his manifesto, “2083: A European Declaration of Independence”, Breivik wrote that “the most notable journalists/editors from all the nations [sic] media/news companies attend” the conference, and said its “light or non-existent security” made it a “perfect target”.
Breivik just said that the journalists’ national conference in Norway would be a “more legitimate target than Utoya”. Says he tried.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik: “I worked really hard to realise that but I was unfortunately unable to carry out the attack on the conference.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik is talking about the Knights Templar. In its opening statement yesterday, the prosecution suggested the anti-Islam network cited by Breveik “does not exist”.
Breivik claims the Knights Templar anti Islam network comprised of “just a few individuals” – “I never said it was a huge organisation.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik is now challenging the report that found him to be “legally insane”. He wants the court to acknowledge that he is sane and for him to be tried as such.
Breivik says he has found 200 lies in the psychiatric report declaring him criminally insane. Blames self for presenting “pompous” persona.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Since this report, another report by two forensic psychologists concluded that he is legally sane.
Breveik says he has learned from al-Qaida.
Breivik says he learned a lot from Al Qaida – “AQ is most successful miltitant organisation in the world”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik is asked about his claim to be the defender of Norway as the prosecutor tries to establish who gave him the mandate for his actions. He says he gave himself the mandate.
Breivik says he gave himself the “mandate” to commit the attacks but had contact with other “militant nationalists” in 2001 and 2002
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
The prosecutor is now cross-examing Breivik.
The topics will cover how Breveik became who he is, how he planned the 22 July attacks and what happened on that day.
Breivik says his actions on 22 July provided a template for al-Qaida.
Breivik says “universal human rights” gave him the mandate to “defend the Norwegian people”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik says Al Qaida have “learned from 22 july” (date of attacks) that one-man cells are the only option now for “militant nationalists”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik claimed this morning that Norwegians would be a minority in their own capital “within five years”. That is not what the statisticians say.
Statistics Norway predicts that immigrants are set to make up almost half of Oslo’s population by 2040 and its definition of “immigrants” includes children of immigrants (unlike in the UK where children of immigrants are not defined as immigrants), the Local reported last month.
Immigrants are defined in the statistics as either people who have either moved to Norway from another country, or the Norway-born children of two first-generation immigrants.
According to Statistics Norway’s most likely scenario, Oslo’s immigrant population will rise from today’s 28% to 47% in 2040.
In the country as a whole, the immigrant population is expected to jump from 12 to 24%, or from 600,000 people today to 1.5 million in 2040.
(This post has been updated to illustrate that the definition of “immigrants” is different than that commonly used in the UK as it includes children of immigrants as well).
Helen Pidd has filed an account of the morning’s proceedings. Here are some excerpts:
He [Breivik] expressed no regret for planning and carrying out the attacks which left 77 dead last summer. Maintaining he acted out of “goodness not evil” to prevent a “major civil war”, Breivik insisted, “I would have done it again.” …
He quoted from a variety of sources to support his case, including, he said, a story written in the Times in February 2010 which he said reported that “three out of five Englishmen believe that the UK has turned into a dysfunctional society as a result of multiculturalism”. The Guardian has not yet found evidence of the Times report.
Breivik told the court that “ridiculous” lies had been told about him, rattling off a list which accused him of being a narcissist who was obsessed with the red jumper he wore to his first court hearing, of having a “bacterial phobia”, “an incestuous relationship with my mother”, “of being a child killer despite no one who died on Utoya being under 14″.
He was not insane, he repeated many times. He claimed it was Norway’s politicians who should be locked up in the sort of mental institution he can expect to spend the rest of his days if the court declares him criminally insane at the end of the ten-week trial. He said: “They expect us to applaud our ethnic and cultural doom… They should be characterised as insane, not me. Why is this the real insanity? This is the real insanity because it is not rational to work to deconstruct ones own ethnic group, culture and religion.”
Breivik insisted he was not alone in fighting against “mass immigration”. He singled out as examples the National Socialist Underground, the neo-Nazi terror cell responsible for killing nine immigrants and one policewoman in Germany, and Peter Mangs, the man suspected of carrying out a seven-year killing spree in the Swedish city of Malmö. It is important, he said, that these “heroic young people” should be “celebrated” for “sacrificing” their lives for the “conservative revolution”
Breveik has concluded his statement, asking to be found not guilty.
I cannot plead guilty, I acted to defend my country. So I ask to be acquitted.
The court will now take a lunch break until 11.30am BST.
Breivik has said he is exercising “self-censorship, just so you know” but there is little evidence of that.
Helen Pidd writes:
After insisting that he would have “done it again” because “the offences against my people and my fellow partisans” are “as bad”, Breivik said he had not targetted innocent young people on Utøya. He said those on the island on 22 July were “brainwashed”. Those he killed, he said, were “not innocent non-political children; these were young people who worked to actively uphold multicultural values.”
Breivik has claimed his views chime at least partially with those of the leaders of France, Germany and the UK who he says have all expressed the opinion that multiculturalism does not work.
Breivik: “Sarkozy, Merkel and Cameron have all admitted multiculturalism does not work”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik has been ordered to wrap up by the judge but the accused says he only has three pages left and it is “essential” to explain his actions. The prosecution says he should be allowed to finish.
He has mentioned Muslims directly for the first time.
#breivik: muslims do not even want to integrate. This is myth. They want autonomy under sharia, they despise our values.
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 17, 2012
The judge has intervened in Breivik’s testimony asking him to keep it relevant after he talks about other countries and has also asked him to speed it up.
Judge interrupts breivik. 30 mins have passed. He says he’s half way. She tells him to wrap up. He says not possible.
— Jonah Hull (@jonahhull) April 17, 2012
#Breivik judge asks him to speed it up. At least stick to Norway comments she says, after he talks about Japanese society…
— Matthew Price (@matthewwprice) April 17, 2012
Judge asks #Breivik to finish. He still has another 5 pages to read. Argues that is already cut from 20 to 13 pages. #22juli
— Trygve Sorvaag (@TrygveSorvaag) April 17, 2012
Judge concerned this is taking too long. Defence says they do have 5 days so encourages judge to allow him to continue#Breivik continues
— Matthew Price (@matthewwprice) April 17, 2012
Some more updates from Helen:
Breivik says he would have done it all again because he was motivated by “goodness, not evil” and did it to save lives.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Can’t believe they are allowing all of this – Breivik compares the Labour party youth wing with the Hitlerjugend.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik claimed he had lessened his rhetoric out of respect for the victims and survivors.
He said:
Dying for your people is not only our right but our duty. I am not scared by the prospect of being in prison all my life. I was born in a prison since I cannot…This prison is called Norway.
Breivik has been railing against marxists, multiculturalists, journalists, feminists.
Now railing against “cultural marxists” who introduced “feminism, quotas… who transformed the church, school”.
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik: “Can norway be a democracy if 100% of news agencies promote multicultural values? The answer is no…”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik now quotes from the Times, February 9 2010, a survey which allegedly said:
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik quotes from the Times: “3/5 englishmen believe that the UK has turned into a dysfunctional society as a result of multiculturalism”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
I can find no record of the Times article he referred to in his evidence.
Breivik has started giving evidence so the TV cameras are switched off.
Breivik:”I have carried out the most sophisticated and spectacular political attack committed in europe since the second world war.”
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
Breivik has been given permission by the judge to read the statement his defence counsel referred to yesterday. His lawyer said it would take about 30 minutes to read the statement.
Judge tells Breivik he does not have to give evidence but if he does so, he has duty to tell the truth. He will start reading by a statement
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) April 17, 2012
The court is back in session. Lay judge Thomas Inderbro’s statements on Facebook “may weaken the trust in his impartiality”, says chief judge Elisabeth Arntzen.
As such he is to be dismissed from the case and replaced.
Another update from Helen in Oslo while we wait for the trial to resume:
Various colleagues and Tweeters have asked why Breivik shook hands with court staff when he arrived in court for the first day of his trial yesterday. I checked with a judicial press officer and she said there is no convention – “what he did was neither normal nor abnormal”. No one had to shake his hand. But the judicial authorities have have been at pains to treat Breivik’s trial as a normal trial as much as possible. Even though Breivik has admitted the killings, he is pleading not guilty, on the grounds of “necessity”. And in Norway, as in Britain and beyond, the accused is innocent until proven otherwise. So to refuse to shake Breivik’s hand could have been seen to be not affording him the respect given to other “normal” defendants.
Breivik once more made a closed fist salute when he arrived in court this morning, as he did on day one.
While we’re waiting for the decision on the lay judge, Helen writes:
Sitting in court this week among all the journalists, lawyers, survivors and bereaved are at least two people who knew Breivik well. One, a reporter for the broadcasters NRK, went to school with him. The other, Kristoffer Nikolai Andresen, 33, is a childhood friend of the defendant who has been signed up by the Norwegian tabloid, VG, to report on the trial. I can’t link to Andressen’s full court report from day one because it’s not online, but he is at pains to stress that he no longer considers Breivik a friend.
Helen writes:
The lay judge posted on Facebook last year that the “death penalty is the only just thing to do” in Breivik’s case. This message was posted on 23 July, the day after Breivik’s massacres.
The lead judge, Elisabeth Arntzen, told the court that Thomas Inderbro, 33, a receptionist in his normal life, “acknowledges giving such statements”. All the counsel were given the chance to object. The defence, prosecution and lawyers for the victims and bereaved all agreed that they viewed Inderbro as “legally incompetent” and should be replaced on the panel.
Under the Norwegian legal system, Breivik’s case will be heard by a panel of two professional judges and three lay judges (ie members of the public).
After the issue was raised by the prosecution, all parties i.e. prosecution defence and counsel for the aggrieved persons have all agreed that the lay judge alleged to have written on their facebook page last summer that Breivik deserved to be executed (see 8.03am) should be removed from the panel.
The judge has called for a 30-minute break.
Another important update from Helen Pidd.
The English interpreters have just issued a clarification about a mistranslation yesterday of Breivik’s defence. He did not invoke “self defence” but “necessity”. This is allowed under section 47 of the Norwegian penal code.
Section 47 reads:
No person may be punished for any act that he has committed in order to save someone’s person or property from an otherwise unavoidable danger when the circumstances justified him in regarding this danger as particularly significant in relation to the damage that might be caused by his act.
Helen Pidd writes about an overnight development:
There has been an upset overnight after a blogger claimed that one of the lay judges had written on their Facebook page last summer that Breivik deserved to be executed. When the case resumes at 8am BST, the defence are expected to ask for this judge to be removed from the panel. Luckily the court appointed a reserve judge, who was in court yesterday watching proceedings.
Once that matter is resolved, the judges will decide whether Breivik is allowed to read out a half-hour written statement he has prepared while on remand in prison. He will read this, if allowed, and will then give evidence, answering questions posed by the prosecution. His testimony is scheduled to last five days
.
Good morning. Welcome to live coverage of day two of the trial of Anders Behring Breivik.
The accused is due to take to the stand to give evidence today. TV cameras have been banned from broadcasting his testimony to avoid giving Breivik a direct platform to air his views. However, reporters are still allowed in and Helen Pidd will be filing updates from the courtroom.
Yesterday, Breivik pleaded not guilty to the charges against him.
You can read yesterday’s live blog here.
And here is the news story that appeared in today’s Guardian.
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Eurozone crisis live: Euro slides as Spanish fears grow
Posted by: | CommentsSpanish and Italian bond yields continue to rise this morning. Here’s the latest prices from the Reuters terminal:
Spain’s 10-year bond yield: 6.166%, up 17.8 basis points
Italy’s 10-year bond yield: 5.67%, up 13.5 basis points
[Yields move inversely to the price of a bond, so a rising yield shows that the value of the debt has dropped in the bond market.]
This doesn’t immediately affect the country’s borrowing costs [as these are bonds which have already been auctioned], but does indicate that investors might seek a higher rate of return at the next sale. And worryingly, Spain is due to hold two debt auctions later this week.
Megan Greene, senior economist at Roubini Global Economics, is warning today that Spain has no hope of regaining market confidence, whatever prime minister Mariano Rajoy chooses. She writes:
If the Spanish government does not announce further austerity measures, the markets think it is not serious about hitting its fiscal targets and shun Spanish sovereign debt. If the Spanish government does announce additional austerity measures, however, the markets fret that the swingeing cuts will push Spain further into recession and shun Spanish government debt.
Were Joseph Heller still with us, he might be planning a sequel…
A financial crisis gives statesmen and monarchs a chance to show their mettle. Think Greek president Carolos Papoulias giving up his salary, or his Italian counterpart Giorgio Napolitano helping to hold Italy’s political system together last November as the Berlusconi government collapsed.
So how has Spain’s King Juan Carlos responded to the current crisis? He’s shot an elephant. And possibly a brace of water buffalo too.
The king’s decision to go big-game hunting in Botswana, during a trip to the African country, has been widely criticised in Spain. As our Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett reports, the visit is a stark contrast to the austerity being suffered back home, as killing an elephant comes with a $15,000 price-tag.
Basque politician Julia Madrazo said the king should spend his time “puzzling over the fate of his country” rather than hunting exotic animals and endangered species.
The trip hasn’t gone smoothly for the 74-year-old monarch either – he has returned to Spain for a hit operation after falling badly.
M’learned colleague Larry Elliott argues this morning that the eurozone must choose between three different paths out of the crisis.
He dubs the first “Austerity Avenue” — effectively continuing on the present road of driving down wages and production costs in Europe’s already weak peripheral countries, in the hope of boosting competiveness and lowering the divergences within Europe:
There are both economic and political problems with this route. Austerity is killing growth, making it harder to reduce government borrowing, and it is inflaming populations unhappy at the prospect of year after year of falling living standards. This is a bumpy road; it may also prove to be a short one.
Another option is “High-Investment Highway” — where Europe would bow to pressure to stimulate growth (and presumably relax its targets for debt reduction in countries such as Spain). Eurobonds — collective borrowing backed by Europe’s richest members, would provide the breathing space.
[George] Soros proposed a scheme last week in which all countries would be able to refinance their debts at the same rate – but, as he admitted, this would never get past the Bundesbank.
The third option is “Buenos Aires Boulevard” — with Europe copying Argentina’s financial crisis of a decade ago, and allowing the likes of Greece to devalue and default. Anathma in the corridors of power in Brussels and Athens (and still opposed by the majority of Greeks), but as Larry points out:
…unless policymakers in Europe can offer their citizens something more enticing than endless austerity, a stroll down Buenos Aires Boulevard will become increasingly enticing.
Asian stock markets were bruised by Europe’s woes today.
Heavy selling in Japan drove the Nikkei down by 1.7%, or 167 points, to 9471. The selloff was led by exporters such as TDK and Nikon (for whom Europe is a key market) and banks.
The rise in Spanish bond yields last week has alarmed traders. Fumiyuki Nakanishi, general manager of investment and research at SMBC Friend Securities, told Reuters that:
Even after the European Central Bank’s liquidity operation earlier this year, the yields of Spain’s government bonds are continuing to rise, which reflects investor doubts over its finances and this concern came to the fore last week.
European markets are calm this morning, though. Here’s an early round-up of the main indices:
UK FTSE 100: up 18 points at 5669, + 0.35%
German DAX: down 28 points at 6555, – 0.4%
French CAC: down 0.5 points at 3188, + 0.02%
Spanish IBEX: up 43 points at 7294, + 0.63%
Italian FTSE MIB: up 50 points at 14408, + 0.35%
The euro has fallen against most major currencies this morning, as eurozone debt fears loom over the foreign exchange markets.
Sterling rose to €1.2182, its highest level since September 2010. That means one euro is worth 82.09p.
Against the dollar, the euro slipped below the $1.30 mark for the first time since mid-February, and also hit a two month low against the yen.
And while the euro slides, Spanish bonds are also being hit. The yield (effectively the interest rate) on the 10-year Spanish bond has jumped over the 6% mark this morning, to 6.09% at pixel time.
Italian bond yields have also risen, with the 10-year yield nudging 5.62%.
German bonds, through, are in demand, driving down the yield on the 10-year bund to a new record low of just 1.628%.
These are all signs that the crisis is heating up again. As Brenda Kelly, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, comments:
The pressure on its bond yields and over-dependence on ECB funding is adding to the mounting evidence that Spain will in fact need a bailout.
This has reignited the fears that should this occur, that the Euro zone will be courting disaster with what is deemed by the markets an insufficient firewall, particularly if Italy follows suit.
It’s a pretty quiet agenda today. We get the latest eurozone trade data this morning, and the details of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases this afternoon. US retail sales data could move the markets this afternoon:
• Eurozone trade balance for February: 10am BST / 11am CET
• US advance retail sales for March: 1.30pm BST / 8.30am EST
• ECB announces bond purchases for last week: 2.30pm BST / 3.30pm CET
In the bond markets, France and the Netherlands are holding debt sales this morning.
And the announcement of the next leader of the World Bank should also come this afternoon.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis.
It’s an edgy Monday morning, as fears over Spain’s financial position grow. Spanish and Italian bond yields will be closely watched today, for signs that investors are driving up borrowing costs again.
The euro has already come under pressure – hitting a 19-month low against the pound (of which more shortly).
Meanwhile, the crisis continues to dominate France’s presidential race. Nicolas Sarkozy declared yesterday that (if re-elected) he would push the European Central Bank to do more to support economic growth. François Hollande, though, continues to lead the polling.
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